It's official: the $30 million Google Lunar X-Prize will remain unclaimed

[Streetwind]

http://spacenews.com/google-lunar-x-prize-to-end-without-winner/

The X-Prize foundation has declared that, as previously announced, the schedule will not be extended again. And since none of the five remaining competitors are on track to launch in time to meet the existing March 31st deadline, Google's sponsorship will end and the prize pool will remain unclaimed.

Quick summary:
- Israel's SpaceIL is still trying to raise US $30 million to pay for its launch, with no clear indication of whether or not they can get it, and if so, when they could get a launch slot.
- India's TeamIndus is in the exact same boat: still trying to raise US $35 million to pay for its launch, of which there is no information about if and when it might happen.
- Japan's Team Hakuto was slated to fly with TeamIndus, and is 100% dependent on what they do.
- US-based Moon Express technically still had the best shot at winning, as their launch is already paid for, and the vehicle (Rocket Lab's Electron) has entered commercial service in time to provide said launch before the deadline. But Moon Express has apparently stated that they don't really care that much anymore, they'd rather focus on their actual business case. Which still involves launching to the Moon on Electron, but later in the year. Think of that what you will, I guess?
- International team Synergy Moon decided to bet on Interorbital System's Neptune N36 rocket for their ride to space. In fact, the team went as far as merging with Interorbital Systems. But this rocket has never flown to date. In fact, it has never even been tested. They had planned to test a single-core version, the Neptune N1, in Q4 2017, but missed that date. And it's quite a ways to scale from one core to thirty-six. If this team ever launches at all, it will probably be no earlier than 2019-2020.

The X-Prize foundation said that they're considering keeping the competition alive in spirit - by no longer having a prize pool but still potentially awarding winner's honors. They are also open to other sponsors stepping in to replace Google and providing a new prize pool. But this is not a concrete plan, just speculation about possibilities.
 

Edited January 24, 2018 by Streetwind

[Bill Phil]

At this point I would just give it to Moon Express. They've got everything lined up pretty well.

In all honesty, time limitsfor space related prizes don't make much sense, due to how long these things can take.

[Ultimate Steve]

Part of me thinks that if they really wanted to, Moon Express could still win if stuff lined up right.

[Streetwind]

Part of me thinks that they're pretending not to care because they couldn't make it in time, tbh. You don't just stop wanting a two-digit million sum of dollars when you're a startup, especially after you already did 90% of the work towards it. That is not a thing that happens.

So either Rocket Lab couldn't guarantee them a launch by mid-March, or their spacecraft isn't ready yet.

[Canopus]

Even if no company won, i still think this price helped a lot in generating interest for commercial development of the moon. So not very disappointing to me.  

[PB666]

30 minutes ago, Canopus said:

Even if no company won, i still think this price helped a lot in generating interest for commercial development of the moon. So not very disappointing to me.  

Quite the opposite, I am disappointed that they with-drew the prize.

Its this circumstance, suppose I have a 100 meter tall building and I say to 5 competitors (Say its an alien race whose exoskeleton is made of rubber) the first one to hit the street wins, but then I say but if no-one hits the street in 4 seconds then I will withdraw the prize. So the competition is a bit unfair. If we look at electron, they have a nice little rocket, but it takes effort to make nice-little rockets, and effort occurs over time. If you put an artificial time on getting to the moon, then the price competitors lets get artificial help, so for instance lets get NASA to help . . and then its no longer private anymore.

The point of the prize was to get private entrepreneurs to venture beyond the box. By withdrawing the prize the ventures will now focus on a lessor box (say throwing small payloads into LEO), which is redundant and not really ground breaking. 

Anyway I have no  trust of google, so this is not unexpected.

 

[Canopus]

1 hour ago, PB666 said:

Quite the opposite, I am disappointed that they with-drew the prize.

Its this circumstance, suppose I have a 100 meter tall building and I say to 5 competitors (Say its an alien race whose exoskeleton is made of rubber) the first one to hit the street wins, but then I say but if no-one hits the street in 4 seconds then I will withdraw the prize. So the competition is a bit unfair. If we look at electron, they have a nice little rocket, but it takes effort to make nice-little rockets, and effort occurs over time. If you put an artificial time on getting to the moon, then the price competitors lets get artificial help, so for instance lets get NASA to help . . and then its no longer private anymore.

The point of the prize was to get private entrepreneurs to venture beyond the box. By withdrawing the prize the ventures will now focus on a lessor box (say throwing small payloads into LEO), which is redundant and not really ground breaking. 

Anyway I have no  trust of google, so this is not unexpected.

 

It seems that all major competitors are still focused on the Moon so i don't see the problem. Moon express and Astrobotic for example won't stay in LEO because that market is already saturated. 

[PB666]

34 minutes ago, Canopus said:

It seems that all major competitors are still focused on the Moon so i don't see the problem. Moon express and Astrobotic for example won't stay in LEO because that market is already saturated. 

Supply and demand curves shift with economic forces, as the willingness of providers to provide at lower cost, the basis shifts and the demand increases, I don't think their market is yet saturated.

[Canopus]

http://spacenews.com/x-prize-teams-plan-to-keep-shooting-for-the-moon/

[Streetwind]

Yep, that pretty much confirms it - none of the teams was near "ready enough" to warrant another extension. From the article it sounds like even Moon Express did not expect to be launching until the second half of 2018.

Just goes to prove the old saying: "80% of the work is complete in 20% of time, and the remaining 20% of the work takes the other 80% of time."

Interesting statement from Synergy Moon though, that they "still plan to launch this year". Erm, guys... you literally don't have a rocket right now? Well then! Let's see some test flights  

Edited January 26, 2018 by Streetwind

[Hannu2]

On 1/24/2018 at 5:13 PM, Streetwind said:

Part of me thinks that they're pretending not to care because they couldn't make it in time, tbh. You don't just stop wanting a two-digit million sum of dollars when you're a startup, especially after you already did 90% of the work towards it. That is not a thing that happens.

So either Rocket Lab couldn't guarantee them a launch by mid-March, or their spacecraft isn't ready yet.

They have continued deadline many times already. If you have startup, you should not accept the deal that you make something almost superpower level space tech by blatantly overoptimistic deadline. But I agree that this was nasty and probably also stupid decision from Google. 30 millions is less than nothing for them and prize would have given lots of positive advertisement.

But as far as I have understood, budgets of teams have been tens of millions and they have had other sponsors. Let's hope that at least someone of them are able to continue.

[_Augustus_]

5 hours ago, Streetwind said:

Interesting statement from Synergy Moon though, that they "still plan to launch this year". Erm, guys... you literally don't have a rocket right now? Well then! Let's see some test flights  

Their rocket and the company that makes it seem like a downright scam TBH.

[Streetwind]

8 minutes ago, _Augustus_ said:

Their rocket and the company that makes it seem like a downright scam TBH.

Well, the team actually merged with Interorbital Systems. In other words, they're building their own rocket now. The first people they can scam now are... themselves?  

If they ever want to fly, they're going to have to build it. I suppose we might find out more by next week, if the statement in the article was true.

[_Augustus_]

5 hours ago, Streetwind said:

Well, the team actually merged with Interorbital Systems. In other words, they're building their own rocket now.

Okay, I've just done some reading on Interorbital, and here's what I've found:

• Their rocket uses nitric acid and TURPENTINE as propellant.
• The last time they launched a SINGLE CPM was 4 years ago.
• "The first elongated CPMs will be clustered to form the N8 Long launch vehicle, which will be capable of placing a 500-kg payload into LEO and a 100-kg payload on the surface of the Moon. IOS is also developing a lightweight two-man capsule that can be launched to LEO using the N8 Long rocket." Wait, so their largest rocket can't even lift half a ton to LEO but they think they can put a manned, ORBITAL capsule on it?
• They were thinking about launching from Tonga. I see a lot of problems with that - ever read about what happened to SpaceX at Kwaj and why they don't use it anymore?

Sounds fake to me.

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by _Augustus_

[Ultimate Steve]

2 hours ago, _Augustus_ said:

Okay, I've just done some reading on Interorbital, and here's what I've found:

• Their rocket uses nitric acid and TURPENTINE as propellant.
• The last time they launched a SINGLE CPM was 4 years ago.
• "The first elongated CPMs will be clustered to form the N8 Long launch vehicle, which will be capable of placing a 500-kg payload into LEO and a 100-kg payload on the surface of the Moon. IOS is also developing a lightweight two-man capsule that can be launched to LEO using the N8 Long rocket." Wait, so their largest rocket can't even lift half a ton to LEO but they think they can put a manned, ORBITAL capsule on it?

Sounds fake to me.

 

2 people ~200Kg (With suits and computers and stuff)

Chutes, ECLSS, retrorockets ~100kg

Structure and heat shield ~ 200kg

 

Possible, but difficult.

Remember, MOOSE would have only weighed 91kg by some estimates.

Now, whether this ship will be useful is another question. Docking gear would probably go over the mass budget.

 

EDIT: And I think they have a CPM 2.0 almost finished, last I heard they were having trouble with launch licenses. 

Edited January 26, 2018 by Ultimate Steve

[Starman4308]

4 hours ago, Ultimate Steve said:

2 people ~200Kg (With suits and computers and stuff)

Chutes, ECLSS, retrorockets ~100kg

Structure and heat shield ~ 200kg

500 kg for the escape tower and oh wait.

I do not find it plausible that you could safely launch a man to orbit with a 500 kg payload limit. The Mercury capsule was 1355 kg, of which 272 kg was just the heat shield. You can't really make a capsule smaller than Mercury; you might make it somewhat lighter with higher-performance thrusters and miniaturized electronics, but you're not going to make the heatshield much lighter than that.

[PB666]

5 hours ago, Starman4308 said:

500 kg for the escape tower and oh wait.

I do not find it plausible that you could safely launch a man to orbit with a 500 kg payload limit. The Mercury capsule was 1355 kg, of which 272 kg was just the heat shield. You can't really make a capsule smaller than Mercury; you might make it somewhat lighter with higher-performance thrusters and miniaturized electronics, but you're not going to make the heatshield much lighter than that.

Yeah you can make a coffin with a heat shield, very clostrophobic but a single pass oxygen system maybe one orbit then reentry. 500kg plus body. Would you want to do that, that may be the way we end up getting people off of Mars. Shoot em up and catch them in space, then worry about keeping them alive.

Just a manned capsule does not need any computers, windows, you need a tube that supplies about 3 mls of oxygen per second, maybe some base to absorb the carbon dioxide that the person has to exhale through. Something that mixes the O2 into the air. What else, no food or water needed, no toilet . . .what else temperature regulation maybe passive. What else, a pressure regulator.

[YNM]

2 hours ago, PB666 said:

Yeah you can make a coffin with a heat shield, very clostrophobic but a single pass oxygen system maybe one orbit then reentry. 500kg plus body. Would you want to do that, that may be the way we end up getting people off of Mars. Shoot em up and catch them in space, then worry about keeping them alive.

Just a manned capsule does not need any computers, windows, you need a tube that supplies about 3 mls of oxygen per second, maybe some base to absorb the carbon dioxide that the person has to exhale through. Something that mixes the O2 into the air. What else, no food or water needed, no toilet . . .what else temperature regulation maybe passive. What else, a pressure regulator.

Find an ascetic.

[lajoswinkler]

Thsi did not surprise me. I found the whole thing to be goofy from the start.

[Canopus]

1 hour ago, lajoswinkler said:

Thsi did not surprise me. I found the whole thing to be goofy from the start.

But the companys exist now and someone will put something on the moon atleast in 2019. So the only goofy part may have been the short deadline. Other than that the price has basically done what it was supposed to do.

[Streetwind]

15 hours ago, Canopus said:

So the only goofy part may have been the short deadline.

It was actually extended a lot. The main problem was the limited initial uptake. It took a year or two before any serious contenders even decided to start working on it.

X-Prizes are always set intentionally a little before their time, and they are intentionally audacious.

[Diche Bach]

What is the point of getting to the moon?

I skimmed the article linked in the OP, but there is no clear statement of why Google would want to promote people sending more junk to the surface of the moon?

Aren't there a lot more important things to be promoting that are appropriate intermediary steps toward humanity ascending to a spacefaring species? Oh sure, a moon base would seem to be an appropriate intermediate goal, and obviously "getting to the moon" a necessary part of that, but isn't promoting private industries landing a craft on the moon a bit like putting the cart before the horse?

[Canopus]

4 minutes ago, Diche Bach said:

What is the point of getting to the moon?

I skimmed the article linked in the OP, but there is no clear statement of why Google would want to promote people sending more junk to the surface of the moon?

Aren't there a lot more important things to be promoting that are appropriate intermediary steps toward humanity ascending to a spacefaring species? Oh sure, a moon base would seem to be an appropriate intermediate goal, and obviously "getting to the moon" a necessary part of that, but isn't promoting private industries landing a craft on the moon a bit like putting the cart before the horse?

The Moon will play an important part in humanities "ascend to a spacefaring species". What exactly would be more important?

[Diche Bach]

4 minutes ago, Canopus said:

The Moon will play an important part in humanities "ascend to a spacefaring species". What exactly would be more important?

An actual permanent space station where off-Earth agriculture, and human health studies could be mastered is the most obvious; but I suspect there are a lot of others too.

What else is more important, isn't exactly an answer. It is an evasion.

Simple question: why promote commercial moon landing? If there is no answer that is fine, I'm just asking is all.

ADDIT: exploration of technologies for generating artificial gravity environments in orbit would be another one that strikes me as being more important.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Diche Bach

[Canopus]

1 minute ago, Diche Bach said:

An actual permanent space station where off-Earth agriculture, and human health studies could be mastered is the most obvious; but I suspect there are a lot of others too.

What else is more important, isn't exactly an answer. It is an evasion.

Simple question: why promote commercial moon landing? If there is no answer that is fine, I'm just asking is all.

That permanent Space station you propose, would you want it to be built from parts entirely sent from the surface of the earth? Or would it not make sense to eventually use as much resources from space as you can?