Space launch market expected to reach $40 billion by 2030.

[Exoscientist]

Global Space Launch Services Market is projected to reach at a market value of US$ 47.6 Billion by 2030: Visiongain Research Inc

October 05, 2021 09:33 ET | Source: Visiongain Ltd 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/10/05/2308874/0/en/Global-Space-Launch-Services-Market-is-projected-to-reach-at-a-market-value-of-US-47-6-Billion-by-2030-Visiongain-Research-Inc.html

 Several independent market research surveys have put the space launch market at about the ~$40 billion range by ~2030. That amounts to about 1,000 reusable Falcon 9’s. That’s a large market for other launch companies to also take part in. BUT they have to use reusables to stay competitive with SpaceX. Otherwise, they’ll also go the way of ULA having to ask for buyers to avoid bankruptcy.

  In that regard ULA and Arianspace should upgrade their coming  launchers, Vulcan Centaur for ULA and Ariane 6 for Arianespace, to add an additional engine to their first stages. As it is now, neither can lift off without using solid side boosters. But the space shuttle showed solid side boosters do not save costs on reuse, while SpaceX showed all-liquid rockets do.

 Robert Clark

Edited March 27, 2023 by Exoscientist

[tater]

22 minutes ago, Exoscientist said:

Global Space Launch Services Market is projected to reach at a market value of US$ 47.6 Billion by 2030: Visiongain Research Inc

October 05, 2021 09:33 ET | Source: Visiongain Ltd 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/10/05/2308874/0/en/Global-Space-Launch-Services-Market-is-projected-to-reach-at-a-market-value-of-US-47-6-Billion-by-2030-Visiongain-Research-Inc.html

 Several independent market research surveys have put the space launch market at about the ~$40 billion range by ~2030. That amounts to about 1,000 reusable Falcon 9’s. That’s a large market for other launch companies to also take part in. BUT they have to use reusables to stay competitive with SpaceX. Otherwise, they’ll also go the way of ULA having to ask for buyers to avoid bankruptcy.

  In that regard ULA and Arianspace should upgrade their coming  launchers, Vulcan Centaur for ULA and Ariane 6 for Arianespace, to add an additional engine to their first stages. As it is now, neither can lift off without using solid side boosters. But the space shuttle showed solid side boosters do not save costs on reuse, while SpaceX showed all-liquid rockets do.

A few questions (though this matches this link I found looking up stuff for the Rocket Lab thread: https://www.polarismarketresearch.com/industry-analysis/space-launch-services-market ).

Their methods are not clear, ie: what countries are they looking at, do they include China, or is this just the market accessible to commercial providers? Do they assume current cost structures in that growth?

Large players in any increase have to be constellations, but Starlink is exclusively SpaceX launches, and Kuiper is ULA/BO.

My link shows regional gains, and some might be wed to regional launchers. India will use ISRO, the PRC will use Chinese LVs, and a % of European launchers will have to use Ariane regardless of cost, etc..

You mention ~1000 F9 equivalent launches/year, but if costs dropped in half, then they actually think there will be 2000 launches a year? Honestly, those sorts of projections (your link and mine) make little sense to me.

[Exoscientist]

 
 I agree with you number of launches is the more important parameter. Likely prices will decrease and as you said if it decreases by half, that means 2,000 Falcon 9 equivalent launches. But that means an even larger market for other launch companies to get into and even greater necessity for them to get into reusables.

  Robert Clark

[tater]

42 minutes ago, Exoscientist said:

 I agree with you number of launches is the more important parameter. Likely prices will decrease and as you said if it decreases by half, that means 2,000 Falcon 9 equivalent launches. But that means an even larger market for other launch companies to get into and even greater necessity for them to get into reusables.

A larger market in launches at lower prices? Again, 2X as many at 1/2 the price? Seems like there is not actually demand for that. Even if there was, and even if there was $40B to be made in total, a decent % is not available to all providers, some will be necessarily attached to national launchers. In addition, $40B is chump change.

Apple made $394B in 2022.

Amazon generated revenue of $356B in 2022.

Tesla had $81B in revenue in 2022.

So by 2030 they project the total world launch revenue as equal to 5 weeks of 2022 Apple, 6 weeks of 2022 Amazon, or 6 months of 2022 tesla. I think all will probably have that revenue double by 2030. I think that launch quadrupling seems unlikely—and even if it does it's not a great business compared to just those 3 examples above unless there is a real shift in what can generate customers for spaceflight.

I honestly think that for a company set on launch to space as it's raison d'être, the killer app would be tourism. Satellites all have a lifespan measured in years, so even with constant replacements, you only need one launched every X years. Humans can go to space as often as they want to or can afford it. Unlocking this market would require orders of magnitude better safety, and attention to the comfort level required for casual travelers.

I just don't see that happening by 2030.

Edited March 27, 2023 by tater

[steve9728]

9 hours ago, Exoscientist said:

 
 I agree with you number of launches is the more important parameter. Likely prices will decrease and as you said if it decreases by half, that means 2,000 Falcon 9 equivalent launches. But that means an even larger market for other launch companies to get into and even greater necessity for them to get into reusables.

  Robert Clark

20 hours ago, steve9728 said:

 

I believe this price still have space to be pushed downwards after further narrowing or even resolving the rocket wreckage drop zone issue. As mentioned in the report on the rocket wreckage parachute return system days ago, if in the future this system is maturely applied to every rocket, it could save over a billion RMB per year in launch costs.

During the world's development, the demand for satellites in developing countries in the Third World is extremely buoyant. These countries may come from South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Without regard to politics (although 95% of the time this is impossible) they will choose a rocket that is economic and reliable enough to launch their satellites. The one of the current services offered in CNSA is: What? You don't know how to design a satellite? No problem, here are the satellites on the shelf, see which one you like, and we'll launch it straight into orbit for you. All you have to do is pay us when the satellite is in orbit and working properly, and we give you the control of the whole satellite. This 'package' currently includes (but not limited to) known consumers in Egypt, Cambodia, Laos, Pakistan, Venezuela, Nigeria and Bolivia. 

If I had to, I'd be 60% confident of reaching this figure by 2030 - and of course is entire world total, not just Space X. To give an unappropriated example, the mobile phone you use in 2013 is still quite different from the one you were use in 2020. And until the 4G comes out, I can't also imagine a short video company such as TikTok making so much money!

Edited March 28, 2023 by steve9728