Philidelphia plane crash analysis help.

[Arugela]

Hopefully this is ok in this forum.

With the new footage I noticed something interesting. In one video angle on the NBC footage. A guy was coming out of his house and the crash seemed to be going directly towards him. It looks like it was going one way or almost a direct line then swirved sideways fairly steeply before crashing in a fireball.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/31/us/video/american-airline-plane-crash-washington-exclusive-video-ldn-digvid <- Starts at 0:17 seconds.

https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/video-captures-moment-small-plane-crashes-in-philadelphia-230829125969 <- start at 0:19 seconds.

Looking at it again maybe it was more jacknifed straight up and down than a 45 degree angle. But it appears to be sideways at one point. You will notice the explosion is centered far to the right of the and it was coming in at even when it disapeared.

 

The other footage from the cars perspective is falling almost straight but in the end curves downwards. They are saying it crashed after takeoff.

Edit: I can't find the footage outside of the livefeed from the cars camers on at the crossroad. The footage in question was on NBC's live feed on a roku with youtube. It was from a cars dashcam with a big car in front if it at or near a road crossing showing it decent in a slight curved downward path before hitting the ground.

The video was titled: "BREAKING: Small plane crash in Philadelphia residential area | NBC"

Possibly this: (looking for exact timestamp. Live doesn't allow timestamps. These primitive businesses need to catch up to modernia.)

In the first example you can see what appear to be bright frontal lights moving on the front of the plane showing it's maneuvering. it appeara at some point ot be at around 45 degree angle just before swirving downwards in a curve.

 

 

I'm wondering if after takeoff, and in this footage it was upside down at a 45 degree angle and then swirved upwards before crashing causing the bizarre sideways movement.

If partway upside down might also explain the downwards arc of the second footage.

 

 

Note: I originally thought it was debree from a fallen part plane or a metor/satelight. But Now I'm thinking the shiney lights are just the planes wing lights and it was much closer to the cameras than I thought.

It also has footage with curved ground from the lenses. but I'm assuming the car footage is not curved. And that curve is not sufficient for the footage with the man running back into his home when it hits the ground.

 

I think it going jacknife after takeoff helps explain the 45 degree angle and the weird curved trajectory.

 

Edited February 1 by Arugela

[tater]

Haven’t heard about a crash in Philly. 
 

I’d suggest checking out Juan Browne’s YouTube channel, blancolirio

[Arugela]

It just happened an hour ago.

[tater]

Mexican registered aircraft. Medical transport, pilot, copilot, paramedic, doc, mother and child.

Weather bad.

 

[tater]

They seems to have had an issue right after takeoff—so filled with Jet-A

 

[tater]

 

[K^2]

Yeah, I've seen some experienced pilots mention stall, and I don't know what kind of planes they fly, but a Lear isn't going to stall at 200kts+ while speeding up. Whatever caused that aircraft to lose control was not aerodynamic.

After seeing more precise numbers, I'm also doubting an engine failure. At least, a total engine failure, as the plane is still climbing and speeding up at rates that shouldn't be possible with an engine out after it already began banking to the left. Keeping in mind that the clearance was for a right turn, I'm pretty sure the moment we're seeing deviation to the left, the plane is already in an emergency state.

Likewise, because clearance was for a right turn, and it looks like the plane's starting it, it doesn't sound like the controls simply locked up, or we'd expect it to keep banking to the right. The sudden left bank that developed into a dive that the pilots could not recover from suggests a very sudden loss of lift on the left wing.

I've been trying to find the hydraulics schematic for 55, because the timing would match the pilots going gear and/or flaps up around the time of the emergency. I wonder if it would have been possible for a hydraulics failure causing flaps to have retracted on the left wing, but remain in takeoff position on the right. What this would do is reduce the AoA on the left wing, reducing its lift, causing a roll to the left, while also increasing drag on the right side, causing a yaw to the right. That could have been disorienting enough to where the pilot flying reacted to the yaw first, kicking the rudder to the left, which would have made the roll even worse, and cause it to develop into a dive. From there, it literally might not have been time enough to correct it before ground impact.

Normally, this would be fairly straight forward for the investigators to establish, but the impact left a sizable crater. I have a feeling, piecing that plane together is going to be a particularly awful sort of a puzzle, and investigation might take a bit. A data recorder would provide best clues, but I don't know if it would survive this.

[darthgently]

23 minutes ago, K^2 said:

Yeah, I've seen some experienced pilots mention stall, and I don't know what kind of planes they fly, but a Lear isn't going to stall at 200kts+ while speeding up. Whatever caused that aircraft to lose control was not aerodynamic.

After seeing more precise numbers, I'm also doubting an engine failure. At least, a total engine failure, as the plane is still climbing and speeding up at rates that shouldn't be possible with an engine out after it already began banking to the left. Keeping in mind that the clearance was for a right turn, I'm pretty sure the moment we're seeing deviation to the left, the plane is already in an emergency state.

Likewise, because clearance was for a right turn, and it looks like the plane's starting it, it doesn't sound like the controls simply locked up, or we'd expect it to keep banking to the right. The sudden left bank that developed into a dive that the pilots could not recover from suggests a very sudden loss of lift on the left wing.

I've been trying to find the hydraulics schematic for 55, because the timing would match the pilots going gear and/or flaps up around the time of the emergency. I wonder if it would have been possible for a hydraulics failure causing flaps to have retracted on the left wing, but remain in takeoff position on the right. What this would do is reduce the AoA on the left wing, reducing its lift, causing a roll to the left, while also increasing drag on the right side, causing a yaw to the right. That could have been disorienting enough to where the pilot flying reacted to the yaw first, kicking the rudder to the left, which would have made the roll even worse, and cause it to develop into a dive. From there, it literally might not have been time enough to correct it before ground impact.

Normally, this would be fairly straight forward for the investigators to establish, but the impact left a sizable crater. I have a feeling, piecing that plane together is going to be a particularly awful sort of a puzzle, and investigation might take a bit. A data recorder would provide best clues, but I don't know if it would survive this.

Also consider this all happened in heavy clouds so disorientation is being brought up in some coverage.  A failure like you posit followed by disorientation and a panicked failure at instrument only flight

[K^2]

Just now, darthgently said:

Also consider this all happened in heavy clouds so disorientation is being brought up in some coverage.  A failure like you posit followed by disorientation and a panicked failure at instrument only flight

I mean, crap happens, but this was during takeoff while turning towards heading given by ATC. You usually watch your instruments while doing this, and it's pretty hard to confuse left bank and right bank on the ball. I am having hard time picturing this being caused by disorientation on an otherwise normal takeoff.

When disorientation can play a huge role is if something else in the cockpit goes wrong, and pilots trying to deal with a minor emergency cause a much more serious one by drifting off course. That I can easily believe in the IMC takeoff. But it would still mean that something happened that the crew thought was more important than watching the instruments.

Of course, if it was something comparatively minor, it might be very hard for the investigators to find out.

[darthgently]

2 minutes ago, K^2 said:

I mean, crap happens, but this was during takeoff while turning towards heading given by ATC. You usually watch your instruments while doing this, and it's pretty hard to confuse left bank and right bank on the ball. I am having hard time picturing this being caused by disorientation on an otherwise normal takeoff.

When disorientation can play a huge role is if something else in the cockpit goes wrong, and pilots trying to deal with a minor emergency cause a much more serious one by drifting off course. That I can easily believe in the IMC takeoff. But it would still mean that something happened that the crew thought was more important than watching the instruments.

Of course, if it was something comparatively minor, it might be very hard for the investigators to find out.

I think that is pretty much what I wrote, just more verbosely

[K^2]

5 minutes ago, darthgently said:

I think that is pretty much what I wrote, just more verbosely

Yeah, I must have missed a word and thought you were saying disorientation instead of a failure, rather than in combination.

[tater]

Juan Browne either in the vid I embedded, or his followup says he thinks it was spacial disorientation for exactly the data reasons @K^2 mentioned above. I watch his channel, and there are sadly so many cases of it.