Revisiting SLS/Orion launch costs

[czokletmuss]

This information radically changes the assumed cost of each launch, since now, over a presumed 28-year lifespan, starting in perhaps 2022 and lasting presumably until 2050, the rocket would be used only seven times, and for more than a third of its lifespan, not able to launch the promised 130 tons. Its $30-billion development cost would then need to be divided among the few actual launches, not over all the years of the 28-year period, and would be about $4.3 billion per launch. This share of the launch cost represents money that could have been spend on payloads in years past. The per-launch cost of the rocket now jumps from $5 billion up to about $9 billion.

So the full-sized payload version of the SLS is slightly cheaper that the shuttle at one launch per year, due to the roughly five-fold increase in actual payload compared to the shuttle when it was used as a payload delivery system. This means that the SLS launched once a year will be six times as expensive as a Falcon 9 expendable launch and 15 times as expensive as a Falcon Heavy expendable launch.

The upshot is that the situation described by my previous assessment (and those of many others) remains accurate and in some respects is worse:

1. No hardware to be launched by the SLS other than the crew capsule can be developed until the SLS is developed.

2. The SLS will only be able to perform single launch manned space “stunts†or a few super-expensive science launches at very rare intervals.

3. Due to the available share of the NASA budget that would be taken up by single SLS launches, the SLS will not be able to support base construction anywhere in space, at L1/L2, GEO, on the Moon, or on Mars.

4. The SLS is draining away the lifebloodâ€â€fundingâ€â€of the space program, which should, by all rights, be used to speed up the development of private rockets and end payments to the Russians for space station crew launches as soon as possible.

5. The SLS is a ridiculously expensive way to launch astronaut crews into orbit. With a crew of six, and assuming that each astronaut’s share of the Orion’s 20-ton mass is about three tons, the lowest conceivable cost per seat is $88 million and the most expensive is $368 million, even assuming that some other payload is being launched along with the Orion capsule. It would be much cheaper to continue to use the expensive Russian launch service.

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2330/1

Well, it doesn't look good for NASA. But hey, who said that the USA will have leading space agency forever?

Edited August 29, 2013 by czokletmuss

[Nibb31]

Unfortunately, I believe this is true. Even 7 launches sounds optimistic right now.