NASA and CNSA cooperation - possible?

[czokletmuss]

So I've read this article recently (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2246/1) and I'm wondering whether cooperation between USA and China in space will be possible. It's obvious that the future big projects will probably follow in ISS footsteps, that is international cooperation. And by big projects I mean next generation of space stations and/or missions to Mars or asteroids (including flybys and landing on Mars moons). But the question remains - will it be possible? Let's analyze the situation in terms of the potential manned flights:

1. NASA - without clear goal (asteroid? Moon? LEO? nothing?), with overpriced SLS and MPCV in development but with great experience in both manned and unmanned missions; currently lacking any real political support and money, but it's possible to imagine that good ol'NASA can still do great things

2. Roskosmos - again great amount of experience, probably the best spacecraft ever built (Soyuz) but again severe problems with funding; there are plans to develop new LEO spacecraft (PPTS) as well as the new rocket familiy (Angara). Perhaps a new space station in the next decade

3. ESA - Ariane family and ATV, of course; unlikely to lead any new initiative but definitely a trustworthy partner for other space agencies

4. JAXA - there are plans to rate HTV as a manned vehicle, but besides this just like ESA

5. CSA and other space agencies - will definitely join the new international project if it suits them (money or equipment for the project in exchange (for example) for a place onboard and opportunity to do some experiments)

And then we have CNSA, which is going to launch its own space station in a next few years and proved to be able to send taikonauts to space and return them safely. China has also real motivation, unlike the other agencies (to prove its superpower status) and resources to realize its goals. Even landing on a Moon in the next 15-20 years is quite possible, if only the leaders would like to make it happen.

As we can see, CNSA have two things which other agencies are lacking, that is money and motive. One has to wonder, wouldn't the cooperation between the biggest players (NASA, Roskomos, etc.) and CNSA be beneficial to everyone? On the other hand, there is a rapidly developing private sector capable of sending cargo to orbit (Dragon from SpaceX and soon Cygnus from OSC) and well known problem of China stealing the know-how and technologies from the developed countries.

So knowing all this, is it possible that, say, NASA (still the leading space agency) and CNSA will create a joint mission? In almost all sci-fi novels from the Cold War period (that is, most of the sci-fi novels) the USA and USSR are frequently shown cooperating (Space Odyssey for example). It was only natural - only these two superpowers had the ability to execute realy big projects. Now when the USSR is (fortunately) long dead, it's obvious that only China can fill this gap right now.

But will it happen? What do you think?

Edited September 9, 2013 by czokletmuss

[Kryten]

To answer the question in the title, it's simply not. The senate won't allow it.

They have already done co-operative missions with Roscosmos and ESA (Yinghuo-1/Phobos-Grunt and Double Star respectively). ESA are looking at further co-operation with CNSA; most notably, they're considering supplying CNSA with docking ports for the modular station, possibly in exchange for ESA astronaut visits to it. Relations with Roscosmos aren't doing as well, particularly after the aforementioned failure with Yinghuo-1, but Roscosmos will probably work hard to keep their options open, given the state of their finances even now.

[astropapi1]

The problem, as you already said, is that most space agencies lack funding.

We're not in the cold war anymore. That wasn't but a fight between two guys showing their ducks to each other, but being afraid the other one would have a bigger one.

In the middle of that, Sputnik got into orbit, and a couple of years later Amstrong and Aldrin set foot on the moon.

If they discovered oil on the surface of the moon, the US would be there in a couple of weeks.

As far as things go, China is most likely to be the next country to set goot on the moon, alone.

[czokletmuss]

@Kryten - you made a point but if ESA is going to cooperate with CNSA - and other agencies will probably follow - than the NASA will be in situation, when China is still stealing american tech (as it does right now) but in a few years CNSA may refuse to cooperate with NASA. The table can be turned easily taking into consideration current economic trends. Besides, does the "China Scare" group in Congress and Senate has enough power to paralyze any cooperation? Remember that even in the middle of the Cold War there was Apollo-Soyuz. And even such purely political stunt helped in the long term - Shuttle-Mir and ISS wouldn't exist without NASA-Roskosmos cooperation. So basically - if joint projects with USSR were possible, why not with China?

@astropapi - Fair enough, but wait until we get live footage from the surface of the Moon this year (Chinese rover)

[Van Disaster]

You left out India. ESA also has a human-rated launcher in Soyuz, however the capsule is no use because any emergency would have it landing in the Atlantic - so collaborating with an agency that has a compatible capsule would make sense, if they wanted to get in the business of manned spaceflight. The ESA launch site does seem a particularily good one.

[Kryten]

India are already developing their own crewed rocket-GSLV Mk. III. The test one scheduled for launch next year even has a dummy LES on top. Although, ISRO are relevant in this topic for another reason; their diagrams of the planned crew vehicle appear to include a docking port. Whatever they plan to dock it with, it probably isn't the ISS...

[astropapi1]

@astropapi - Fair enough, but wait until we get live footage from the surface of the Moon this year (Chinese rover)

Chang'e 3. Can't wait to see those pics from the surface!

[nhnifong]

I would imagine that all the space agencies of the world have more in common with each other than the countries they belong to.

[czokletmuss]

I would imagine that all the space agencies of the world have more in common with each other than the countries they belong to.

Interesting point. However, the funding comes from the government and the very beginnings of the space exploration was just another kind of proxy war between USA and USSR, this time on the field of science. So I don't think so that agencies by themselves could decide about such things like international cooperation.

[nhnifong]

At least in the USA, any findings resulting from government funded science have to be made available to the public (since they were paid for by the public). We have nothing to lose from cooperation with China on space exploration. Whether we ask for help or not, the full results of any space science will be available to all.

[King Arthur]

So knowing all this, is it possible that, say, NASA (still the leading space agency) and CNSA will create a joint mission? In almost all sci-fi novels from the Cold War period (that is, most of the sci-fi novels) the USA and USSR are frequently shown cooperating (Space Odyssey for example). It was only natural - only these two superpowers had the ability to execute realy big projects. Now when the USSR is (fortunately) long dead, it's obvious that only China can fill this gap right now.

But will it happen? What do you think?

One word: No. US federal laws absolutely prohibit NASA funding from being used for anything related to China, up to and including (but not limited to) accepting official Chinese visitors at NASA facilities.

Yeah sure, China might look to currently have the space program with the best short/mid-term outlook with its motivation driven by nationalism and seeming willingness to drop tons of money on projects like a space station. However, nothing will happen as far as international (read: US-China) cooperation goes for one simple reason: Everyone and their grandmother knows China can and will steal every single piece of technology with extreme prejudice when given the slightest chance, I personally don't want NASA's (or JAXA's, or ESA's, or Roscosomos's) hard work stolen wholesale by the Chinese.

[czokletmuss]

One word: No. US federal laws absolutely prohibit NASA funding from being used for anything related to China, up to and including (but not limited to) accepting official Chinese visitors at NASA facilities..

Laws are just laws, they can be changed. You made a good point and I have to agree to some degree with this - however, I find it rather funny that there is zero support for NASA-CNSA cooperation, while history teaches us that USA was willing to cooperate in space with country which could easily start nuclear war and drop nukes on the entire East Coast (USRR, that is). Don't you think that if cooperation with Soviets was possible, than cooperation with China is possible to? Maybe not very likely, but at least possible?

If there is anyone from China here who would like to share his POV, I would appreciate it

EDIT: Another intersting article about China in space: http://www.spudislunarresources.com/blog/china-in-space-a-threat-or-not/

Edited September 10, 2013 by czokletmuss

[King Arthur]

US-Russian cooperation came about successfully because the Russians had something the US and its partners just could not refuse: Years of experience in designing, launching, and flying space stations. The US on the other hand could supply the funding the Russians needed to keep Mir flying and then, eventually, the party members (US/Russia/Japan/EU/CSA) could pool together enough money and technological prowess to make the ISS (essentially a combination of Space Station Freedom and Mir-2) into reality. The US also had the Space Shuttle which could fill the gap made by the cancellation of Buran.

By contrast, what does China have to offer? Space stations? Nope, already have that. Launch vehicles? Might as well have the Russians launch some Soyuzes for us. Lunar missions? Nope, already have that. Space telescopes/observatories? Nope, already have that. Meanwhile, China will without a doubt steal every single thing they can get their hands on since almost everything we have is unknown territory to them. Pure and simple, the US has everything to lose and nothing to gain in a relationship with China.

[Kryten]

You have a space station right now, I'll grant you that; but by the time the modular station is complete, you'll have some debris at the bottom of the Pacific-and no plans for a replacement. Incidentally the Russians will have the PTK-NP program in full swing at that point, and are extremely unlikely to bother keeping the production equipment for Soyuz.

[czokletmuss]

A propos the thread's subject: Is Charlie Bolden Going To Visit China?

[Mr Shifty]

Yeah sure, China might look to currently have the space program with the best short/mid-term outlook with its motivation driven by nationalism and seeming willingness to drop tons of money on projects like a space station. However, nothing will happen as far as international (read: US-China) cooperation goes for one simple reason: Everyone and their grandmother knows China can and will steal every single piece of technology with extreme prejudice when given the slightest chance, I personally don't want NASA's (or JAXA's, or ESA's, or Roscosomos's) hard work stolen wholesale by the Chinese.

This makes no sense. China has been launching rockets to space since 1970. Piggybacking on proven, existing technology is sound engineering practice. What does it mean to steal technology? Did the US steal Russian expertise in building modular space stations? Did the US steal German technology when it started its rocket program using the expertise of German engineers in the '50's? Hell, the Chinese were launching rockets in battle in the 13th century when the most advanced European military innovation was the longbow.

[czokletmuss]

Did the US steal Russian expertise in building modular space stations? Did the US steal German technology when it started its rocket program using the expertise of German engineers in the '50's?

Well, actually it did. The Soviet and American space program was possible mainly because of the technology stolen from Germany during the last months of the second world war. There is a very good BBC documentary about this:

http://youtu.be/onIpOpqQQZc

[camlost]

I'm from China and here's my analysis of the situation:

Much like NASA, CNSA has no clear goal either. The current manned space program started in early 1990s and includes three milestones: 1. Develop a space vehicle and in early 2000s send a man to the space. 2. Perform rendezvous, docking and EVA 3. By 2020 build a manned space station. This program only aims to "keep up" with the rest of the world, not so much as to boast patriotism, thus using the old fashioned CZ2 series rocket and Soyuz-like spacecrafts. Technically the manned space program, and China's lunar exploration program are both relatively slow paced and unambitious, seems to me.

Even now the administration has not decided on what to do next. As far as I know several institutes have proposed various designs for spaceplanes, martian probes, man-on-the-moon project etc,etc, but none have been made official. The only thing revealed yet is the development of an engine for CZ9 rocket which is about as big as the SLS. In short, China is not ready for another space race, technically and psychologically.

And I think the international collaboration on space tech is overrated. A space program always requires organizations of thousands of research institutes and factories etc, thus only great powers can pull it off. The political entity that unites the strength of mankind has not emerged. A US shuttle docking with a russian station doesn't merge two systems. Even Japan is developing their own rockets. Also, collaboration doesn't necessarily mean sharing every technology

[czokletmuss]

Thank you for posting this camlost, learning this from a POV of someone from China was very interesting I hope that CNSA will find the new big goal and realize it! I also hope that the Chang'e 3 landing will be succesful and that we will get some HD videos from the Moon.

Could you please tell us something more about the reception of the Chinese space program by public opinion? Is it really that much of a "big deal" and a source of pride or is it like for example in USA and Europe (minority is interested, the rest doesn't care)?

[camlost]

Could you please tell us something more about the reception of the Chinese space program by public opinion? Is it really that much of a "big deal" and a source of pride or is it like for example in USA and Europe (minority is interested, the rest doesn't care)?

The public doesn't care about the technical details and they'll say "US and Soviet already done that 40 years ago", so..

[czokletmuss]

Oh. What a pity that the second power in the world isn't that much into space exploration. I can't help myself but to imagine what could be accomplished if there was another space race, this time between USA and China.

[Comrade Jenkens]

I really hope that they cooperate as the U.S. and Russia do. All this bickering between them is just pointless.

[Wesmark]

I beg to differ on the Soyuz craft being the greatest. What about the space shuttle? Cheeper, reuseable, holds more crew, can hold cargo, and can be used for multiple purposes. The soyuz can really only go to space stations.

[czokletmuss]

STS was also limited to LEO. Where did you get information that SLS was cheaper than Soyuz?

[Kryten]

I beg to differ on the Soyuz craft being the greatest. What about the space shuttle? Cheeper, reuseable, holds more crew, can hold cargo, and can be used for multiple purposes. The soyuz can really only go to space stations.

Actually, space shuttles are only capable of one mission; serving as museum exhibits.