What are the odds...

[drinniol]

I'm launching a probe to Moho, using Mechjeb, get to orbit alright, transfer alright, looking good so I speed the game up....

... and crash into the Mun.

[SpaceSphereOfDeath]

What are the chances of me crashing INTO GILLY.

Whilst going to Moho?

Probably less then that, although it's not unheard of crashing into the moon, it's more likely you flyby it.

[stargazer1235]

Well, it isn't unheard off, especially if you are in time warp and you are distracted or the computer isn't keeping up with physics calculations.

[glacierre]

I'm launching a probe to Moho, using Mechjeb, get to orbit alright, transfer alright, looking good so I speed the game up....

... and crash into the Mun.

I usually get Mun encounters (some of them very close, crunching close encounters) when I am returning from Duna.

[Scotius]

It's also true in opposite direction - i'm really surprised when one of my ships inbound for Duna doesn't get an encounter with Ike on the way.

[Sof]

Considering that the Mun is on 0 inclination relative to Kerbin and the plane of the solar system, the chances of an encounter with the Mun aren't all that low (The fraction being the diameter of the Muns SOI over the size of its orbit)

The same goes for Ike when coming in or trying to leave Duna (this is more likely than with the Mun) and is also fairly regular with Jool an its moons.

[PlayMp1]

Considering that the Mun is on 0 inclination relative to Kerbin and the plane of the solar system, the chances of an encounter with the Mun aren't all that low (The fraction being the diameter of the Muns SOI over the size of its orbit)

The same goes for Ike when coming in or trying to leave Duna (this is more likely than with the Mun) and is also fairly regular with Jool an its moons.

You have a 3.2% chance (approximately) of having a Munar encounter coming from a random direction aligned with the ecliptic/the Mun's orbital plane (pretty sure they're the same).

For Ike, its inclination and eccentricity is so minimal that it fails to particularly matter when you're talking about back-of-the-envelope calculations like this - you get a roughly 5% chance of encountering Ike when approaching Duna from a random direction along Ike's orbital plane.

This means that one in every 20 Duna approaches will encounter Ike, since no one plans so far ahead as to account for Ike's motion around Duna (I almost said that no one plans around the moons, but then I remembered how obsessive people can be about their Jool missions). For Kerbin, one in every 30-ish approaches will encounter the Mun.

Edited October 20, 2013 by PlayMp1

[boomerdog2000]

It's also true in opposite direction - i'm really surprised when one of my ships inbound for Duna doesn't get an encounter with Ike on the way.

I managed to get into a polar orbit on my most recent Duna mission, so no collision with Ike there. I actually used Ike to slingshot the ship out of Duna's SOI to get back to Kerbin, Good thing too because they had 0 fuel left when they got home.

[SunJumper]

Perhaps telling MJ to circularise 0s from now rather than at periapsis will stop it from crashing you into planets...