Will This Lunar Return Work?

[NASAFanboy]

I have this idea for a lunar return, and I want to see if it is feasible.

NASA will get started working on an LLV (Lunar Landing Vehicle) by 2016, and have an mockup constructed by 2018. The LLV should be able to be launched by the Space Launch System, and would serve an extremely crucial piece in any further lunar return (And be designed by Golden Spike). Further equipment will be developed, some by private companies such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences to reduce costs, and would also use an Morpheus-derived vehicle to deliver cargo to the lunar surface. Components that would also be developed are habitats for the astronauts.

NASA should then place one communication satellites at EML2, and then one more at EML1 by 2020 by using an Atlas V or Delta IV. This would allow for continous communication to cover nearly the entire lunar surface, and would allow for unpredecented exploration, even during the lunar night. It would also eliminate the need for LEO-based tracking, which would greatly reduce costs/communication issues and interference. And then the fun starts.

HYPOTHETICAL BUDGET PER YEAR: 18.5 Billion USD

2020

The first LCV mission will land at Shackleton Crater on the Lunar South Pole, delivered by an single contracted launch of the Falcon Heavy. The mission will be unmanned, and will deploy small landing probes to scout the surronding area, testing water extraction techniques and examine samples of lunar regolith. Six months later, another launch will follow, this time with the Falcon Heavy delivering another lander, this time to an equlatoral region. This lander will also probe the lunar enviroment, relying data on in-situ resource production back to Earth. These two tests will serve to provide us with data about ISRU operations and to test the systems for the new Lunar Cargo Vehicle. Back on Earth, there should be test flights of the Lunar Landing Vehicle, an lander capable of seating two astronauts for extended stays on the lunar surface.

The year of 2020 will close with two robotic probe landers on the lunar surface and the beginning of an new relation between the public and private sector in space exploration. The second lander will also test the capability to remain operationing throughout the lunar night, who's hostilility is an extremely major handicap for further lunar exploration. With the reliability of the Lunar Cargo Vehicle proven, we proceed to 2021.

2021

With the funding of the Asteroid Redirect Mission cancelled and redirected (Not a pun ) to the Lunar Exploration Programme, we have the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle doing it's usual Apollo 8-style flyby of the Moon, this time with an Lunar Landing Vehicle attached to the docking port (Making it less of Apollo 8 and more of Apollo 10). While travelling around the Moon, the Orion astronauts will validate and verify the systems and engine of the Lunar Landing Vehicle in cislunar space, along with testing the ECLSS system. While on the way back to Earth, the Orion undocks with the LLV and reenters the atmosphere, returning the crew safe and sound.

The Falcon Heavy will then also send another Lunar Cargo Vehicle to the surface, this time, loaded with an rover that will set up the site for the arrival of the first manned LLV. The LER will then be delivered by an second Falcon Heavy launch to the first LLV landing site, and then will test its onboard systems. The third Falcon Heavy launch will deliver an ATHLETE robot to the lunar surface to aid in the construction of the base. The ATHLETE will be entrusted with unloading/delivering cargo to various sites quick, effectively, and cheaply.

2022

The big year. NASA returns to the Moon. Using the LLV, two astronauts safely land on the Moon, execute operations with the LER and surface equipment, then return safely to Earth. At the site, they verify that everything is in working order and explore the surronding region. After their landing, an Falcon Heavy launch brings several excavator robots to the lunar surface, which proceed to melt down an patch of lunar regolith to place the habitat, followed by an second launch to bring an empty LCV to lunar orbit.

The first habitat arrives with the second SLS launch that year, carrying an Dry Workshop habitat derived from the SLS H2 upper stage tank. The habitat enters lunar orbit, then docks with the LCV and lands at the base site, where it is unloaded by the ATHLETE and transported to the area that had been previosuly prepared for human habitation. Once in position, the habitat would automatically extend its solar panels and recharge it batteries. The habitat would have an radiation storm shelter at its core and would consist of two levels.

The last launch of the Falcon Heavy would send an second backup lunar rover to the habitat site in case the first one should fail.

2024

With the habitat in place, NASA is to contract another Falcon Heavy launch, this time to deliver ISRU production equipment onboard an LCV. Upon arrival, the equipment is unloaded into the ATHLETE and delivered to their respective positions. The equipment would produce water for the base by extracting ice and microwaving it and build upon technologies demostrated in previous misisons. Water would then be transported by robotic rovers (Water tankers) that would take the resources to and from the lunar base.

The SLS would then send EM-4 onto another landing mission to the base. The astronauts would stay at the base for six months before departing (Considering they are an crew of two, the MPCV will be left in lunar orbit until it is time to return), where they are replaced by another two-man crew, starting an crew-cycle that is displayed on the International Space Station and serve as an test-bed for extended longterm missions to land on Mars before 2050.

What's after this is up to your imagination/the next President.

Basically goes like this.

2017 - 1 SLS Launch

2020 - 2 Falcon Heavy Launches

2021 - 1 SLS Launch, Three Falcon Heavy Launches

2022 - 2 SLS Launches, One Falcon Heavy Launches

2023 - 2 SLS Launches, One Falcon Heavy Launches

This is within the range of feasibility, with an estimated cost of $60 Billion USD, but heavily relies on the private industry to do their share. This leads to an annual manned spaceflight budget of 7.5 billion, which is well within the range of the NASA budget.

Edited March 12, 2014 by NASAFanboy

[Nibb31]

I have this idea for a lunar return, and I want to see if it is feasible.

NASA will get started working on an LLV (Lunar Landing Vehicle) by 2016, and have an mockup constructed by 2018. The LLV should be able to be launched by the Space Launch System, and would serve an extremely crucial piece in any further lunar return (And be designed by Golden Spike). Further equipment will be developed, some by private companies such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences to reduce costs, and would also use an Morpheus-derived vehicle to deliver cargo to the lunar surface. Components that would also be developed are habitats for the astronauts.

NASA should then place one communication satellites at EML2, and then one more at EML1 by 2020 by using an Atlas V or Delta IV. This would allow for continous communication to cover nearly the entire lunar surface, and would allow for unpredecented exploration, even during the lunar night. It would also eliminate the need for LEO-based tracking, which would greatly reduce costs/communication issues and interference. And then the fun starts.

HYPOTHETICAL BUDGET PER YEAR: 18.5 Billion USD

http://i.imgur.com/LmnyNYF.png

Charles Bolden claimed that resurrecting the Altair lunar lander would cost 9 to 10 billion dollars. In terms of complexity, I agree that it probably requires more R&D work than a big dumb booster like SLS or even than Orion itself.

This would come on top of the spending for Orion and SLS, which will be peaking between 2017 and 2021. I don't think Congress will fund new NASA hardware until the development work ramps down on SLS/MPCV, which won't happen before 2021. Therefore, I don't think that a kick-off date for a lunar landing architecture in 2016 is possible, but if it was, don't count on having an operation lander before 2026 at best. More realistically, 2030 or beyond.

Bringing in private companies does not automatically reduce costs. Private companies that are building Orion and SLS are not making it substantially cheaper. SpaceX and Orbital Sciences aren't more private than Lockheed Martin and Boeing, and it's still NASA footing the bill here.

Morpheus is not a basis for a lunar lander. It's a demonstrator for landing technology. A lunar lander would not share any commonality with Morpheus, except maybe some software heritage.

A satellite at EML-2 would be useless for comms and couldn't communicate with a satellite at EML-1. Neither are really suitable or necessary to support a base at Shackleton.

2020

The first LCV mission will land at Shackleton Crater on the Lunar South Pole, delivered by an single contracted launch of the Falcon Heavy. The mission will be unmanned, and will deploy small landing probes to scout the surronding area, testing water extraction techniques and examine samples of lunar regolith. Six months later, another launch will follow, this time with the Falcon Heavy delivering another lander, this time to an equlatoral region. This lander will also probe the lunar enviroment, relying data on in-situ resource production back to Earth. These two tests will serve to provide us with data about ISRU operations and to test the systems for the new Lunar Cargo Vehicle. Back on Earth, there should be test flights of the Lunar Landing Vehicle, an lander capable of seating two astronauts for extended stays on the lunar surface.

The year of 2020 will close with two robotic probe landers on the lunar surface and the beginning of an new relation between the public and private sector in space exploration. The second lander will also test the capability to remain operationing throughout the lunar night, who's hostilility is an extremely major handicap for further lunar exploration. With the reliability of the Lunar Cargo Vehicle proven, we proceed to 2021.

Prospecting to find a suitable location for a base is something that we should be working on, but we aren't. Ideally, there would be several generations of unmanned expeditions, first for prospection, second as ISRU prototypes, and third to prepare for manned activity. These don't rely on SLS or MPCV and could be part of NASA's science budget instead of the HSF budget, even though it relies on a political decision to start a manned base on the Moon.

As a comparison, LRO and LCROSS were initiated in 2004 as part of Constellation and launched in 2009.

If the budget was approved today, it might be possible to perform the first prospection launches by 2020, but probably not before. It would also take a year or two to analyze the data and to produce a recommendation report for the second generation of ISRU hardware. Count 5 more years for that, and you might have a first ISRU prototype at TRL-6 by 2025 if you're lucky. Optimistally, count at least 5 more years to reach TRL-9, which is the required level for manned operations and evaluation.

2021

With the funding of the Asteroid Redirect Mission cancelled and redirected (Not a pun ) to the Lunar Exploration Programme, we have the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle doing it's usual Apollo 8-style flyby of the Moon, this time with an Lunar Landing Vehicle attached to the docking port (Making it less of Apollo 8 and more of Apollo 10). While travelling around the Moon, the Orion astronauts will validate and verify the systems and engine of the Lunar Landing Vehicle in cislunar space, along with testing the ECLSS system. While on the way back to Earth, the Orion undocks with the LLV and reenters the atmosphere, returning the crew safe and sound.

The Falcon Heavy will then also send another Lunar Cargo Vehicle to the surface, this time, loaded with an rover that will set up the site for the arrival of the first manned LLV. The LER will then be delivered by an second Falcon Heavy launch to the first LLV landing site, and then will test its onboard systems. The third Falcon Heavy launch will deliver an ATHLETE robot to the lunar surface to aid in the construction of the base. The ATHLETE will be entrusted with unloading/delivering cargo to various sites quick, effectively, and cheaply.

ARM isn't funded yet, so there is really nothing to cancel and redirect. Oops.

With a first EM-1 flight in 2021 and no lander before (at best) 2026, that means that Orion/SLS will be either sitting in hangars burning dollars or flying meaningless circumlunar flights for at least 5 years. By that time, I expect SLS to be cancelled as the ultimate hangar queen, especially if there are any delays on the lander (which there will be).

I'm not sure why you would want to mobilize Falcon Heavy while SLS will be twiddling its thumbs.

I don't think I would actually develop a Lunar Cargo Vehicle that would fly on FH while at the same time I would be working on a manned lander that would fly on SLS. It would be cheaper to develop a single lander that can be reconfigured to carry either cargo or an ascent vehicle. Both would use the same EDS and launcher.

2022

...

2024

...

Your whole plan is sound and straightforward, and I pretty much agree with the direction:

- Unmanned prospection

- ISRU development

- Cargo and Hab landing

- Long duration manned excursion

- Regular crew/cargo rotations

However, I cannot agree with the timeline. You seem to think that hardware can be designed and built in months. This might have been true during Apollo, but industry, economy, quality assurance, and project management is different nowadays. Major engineering projects are planned over decades and always exceed budgets and schedules. I can't think of a single modern aircraft project that hasn't taken over a decade from start to delivery, and those use more conventional technology and have a lot more people working on them. I simply don't believe that even if we kicked-off a return to the Moon today, with a huge budget increase and strong political support, we could aim for a manned landing before 2030 at best.

Again, I don't see what the incentive for private industry is, other than to receive a paycheck from NASA, which is how NASA has always operated anyway. And I don't see how any of this could be achieved without Congress doubling NASA's budget.

Nowadays, there is a limited pool of resources (I mean actual engineers, facilities, computing resources, support personel, etc...). Resources that are working on one project only become available when that project ends. You can't develop SLS, Orion, a manned lander, a cargo lander, prospection probes, ISRU technology and a manned base all in parallel. There is only enough money and headcount to do one thing at a time. For the moment, resources are already stretched between SLS and Orion. When those are done, NASA will be able to concentrate on what comes next. My fear is that SLS has nothing to do during the decade it takes to design what comes next, and I'm not the only one who shares that concern:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/02/asap-claim-nasa-employing-indecision-roadmap-flexibility/

Edited March 12, 2014 by Nibb31