The Near (and not so near) Future

[Guest]

Recently I've stumbled across this website: http://www.futuretimeline.net

It's made me curious about what you guys think of the future. The next decade, century, maybe even millenium. How will technology and spaceflight advance? When (if ever) will we become a Type 1 civilization?

I think fusion will play a key role throughout the rest of this century. I doubt the switch from fossil fuels will be smooth though...

So what are your thoughts on the near and not so near future? (try to stay away from politics)

[DJEN]

I'm very certain that we are at the brink of a new dark age. It'll start when earth suffers a huge climate change.

[DJEN]

will we become a Type 1 civilization?

Although the kardeschev scale only considers energy usage and nothing more, I'll join the flow.

I think we'll be one in at least 500 years via solar arrays on other planets.

I think fusion will play a key role throughout the rest of this century. I doubt the switch from fossil fuels will be smooth though...

Fusion is impractical without Room-Temperature Superconductors. And they are impossible to make due to physical constraints.

[Nibb31]

It's pointless to predict the future beyond 10 or 20 years, because really, anything could happen. The two World Wars, the Great Depression, the Internet revolution, the transformation of the world after 9-11... none of those things could have been predicted 20 or 30 years before they happened.

I'm not very optimistic (but you guys know that at this point!). I think that we are arriving at the end of a cycle. For the last 2 centuries (which is peanuts on the scale of human history), our societies have been based on economical growth. In a finite system, growth cannot be infinite. There are hard limits (running out of space or resources) and efficiency limits (dimishing returns as you approach the hard limits). We are currently reaching the limits of that growth in terms of resources, environmental transformation, and demographics.

At some point, the current economical system is bound to breakdown. I believe that whether we like it or not, our World is going to transition to a different model. Humanity is going to have to adapt to this new environment and to do so will have to engage into to some profound changes. The transformation might be peaceful and progressive, or it might be violent, but I'm sure that there are going to be some tremendous changes in Humanity over the next century or two.

I can't make specific predictions, but I'm pretty sure that those changes will include a drastic reduction in human population (voluntarily or not) and a major shift of values (things that we value today will become secondary as society focuses on other areas). This means that any extrapolation that we use to predict a future will be wrong.

[Aghanim]

Although the kardeschev scale only considers energy usage and nothing more, I'll join the flow.

I think we'll be one in at least 500 years via solar arrays on other planets.

Fusion is impractical without Room-Temperature Superconductors. And they are impossible to make due to physical constraints.

This: http://forum.kerbalspaceprogram.com/threads/80737-What-are-disadvantages-of-nuclear-fusion

We don't need superconductors for some of the fusion reactors. We do need superconductors for other fusion reactors, but current superconductors is good enough.

[rtxoff]

When (if ever) will we become a Type 1 civilization?

First you have to define to whom you are refering with the word we.

If it is the whole mankind then i say never.

We have problems living in small social units called families yet we want to become a type 1 civ.? Not to speak of other problems involving the destructive exploitation of earth's resources.

Absurd.

[DJEN]

First you have to define to whom you are refering with the word we.

If it is the whole mankind then i say never.

We have problems living in small social units called families yet we want to become a type 1 civ.? Not to speak of other problems involving the destructive exploitation of earth's resources.

Absurd.

So, let's give up everything we have valued.

If we do not, the second dark age will come.

Or not.

Also, have you read Ishmael? It's a good novel dealing with the idiocracy of humans.

Edited June 8, 2014 by DJEN

[WestAir]

Money won't always be the backbone of human society.

Work won't always be the primary purpose of human society.

Communication and transportation will, like they have over the past several hundred years, drastically and unpredictably evolve.

^The above 3 concepts are crucial when predicting the future. People, still living, existed in a time when The Model T was the fastest thing on the roads. When World Wars had never been a concept. When telecommunications, photography, and railroads were in their most basic forms and when something as simple as a processor were something only aliens from outer space could own. Hollywood hadn't become a media centre and Brazil had the military capability to topple the United States. The next hundred years should be just as dramatic as far as change is concerned.