Next Nation that will walk on the moon?

[piggysanTH]

We gonna celebrate 45 years since Neil and Buzz walk on moon:D. So I have some question. What nation that you think will become second on moon ? And when will it happen? Let Vote!

[Tommygun]

I think China is the only country that has the desire and the spare cash right now.

[Sky_walker]

De facto competition is only between Russia and China at this point.

I'd bet China. They got more money and make a quicker progress than Russians.

ESA is not interested - they're full on with robotics. JAXA doesn't have a budget to pull it off. USA struggles with itself.

[Tommygun]

Can Russia really afford it right now.

Well I guess it depends on how fast they want to pull it off.

Ten years versus twenty.

[Sky_walker]

They want to do it before 2030 with capable Angara rocket flying by 2020.

Sounds very reasonable.

And yes, they can afford it. They are in better condition now than USSR was during the space race, and similarly: their leader is oriented on leaving a great achievements after himself.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Sky_walker

[bsalis]

Probably China. They have the money and are keen for the prestige. Home crowd will probably be the main target audience.

The do not seem to be in a rush though.

[piggysanTH]

Wow! The poll isn't like that I thought! I think May be like Russia30% China 50% And Co-Op20%.

[Streetwind]

Well, China isn't cooperating with anyone, and neither are the Russians

But yeah, I'm going with China as well. I have a feeling that they have a massive government interest in pulling it off, and should the Russians (who're doing it more for the science) threaten to overtake them, they'll pull out a lot of stops.

[Sky_walker]

Well, China isn't cooperating with anyone, and neither are the Russians

Ekhm...

(10 char)

[Streetwind]

But are they actually having a joint Moon program? It's not a cooperation Moon landing if either of them does it on their own, regardless of their space agencies being best buddies.

[Sky_walker]

I have no idea. I guess we'll see somewhere around 2020, when decisions will actually have to be taken if it's ever suppose to work as a joined project.

[SpaceXray]

China wants-China will and can!

[Karriz]

Russia doesn't really seem to be developing anything new, they appear to be happy with Soyuz and their space station components at the ISS, which may later form a new station. Sure they've had proposals for new manned spacecraft, but none of those are funded as far as I know.

China might try it in 2020s, since they're a developing space power and probably want to show what they can do to the rest of the world.

ESA/NASA joint program could of course also happen if politicians want so. Orion will use an ATV service module, SLS would be capable of launching the spacecraft, so all they need is a lander, and funding.

[Sky_walker]

Russia doesn't really seem to be developing anything new

o_O

Said 8 days after a launch of Angara 1.2PP, the newest space launch system in the world, developed by Russians.

[Kryten]

China wants-China will and can!

Some people in China want it (particularly aerospace contractors like CAST), but the Chinese government isn't willing to fund it.

[NASAFanboy]

I'd bet on the United States (Private companies such as Golden Spike or SpaceX). China has no vision beyond their 2020 station, their economic progress is finally slowing, and they don't really operate on the same "fear" factor as the United States. I'll give them a 50/50 chance of beating the United States, which will likely return to the Moon somewhat ahead or after the Chinese land back on it. I could be saying "USA!" because I have plenty of general bias against China, but still, I think America has a legitamite chance to beat the Chinese. Remember, they only have a budget of 1.3 USD ( http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KA09Ad01.html), all of which is being focused into two or three projects (Tiangong & Shenyang, Chang'e, and technology development), which means they really don't have much of a edge in funding (Although they have a good advantage politically)

Edited July 17, 2014 by NASAFanboy

[DECQ]

I think the best chance for the Russian, at least in the wake of the success of the Angara and the upcoming year-end rocket Angara-5, they again feel the power and self-confidence.

[Kryten]

Angara isn't really anything special. It's no larger or more powerful than the CZ-5 family the chinese will have within a couple of years, and it's barely even a step up from what the russians already have.

[Sky_walker]

Angara isn't really anything special. It's no larger or more powerful than the CZ-5 family the chinese will have within a couple of years, and it's barely even a step up from what the russians already have.

So much disinformation.... let's make a bulleted list:

• It's much more modern, can push cargo from Plesetsk to GEO (look at the map how far north that space port is)
  
• It doesn't use toxic fuel unlike previous russian rockets
  
• It's modular, so it'll be cheaper to build large and small launch vehicles at the same time and cheaper to transport them
  
• If we're on a topic of prices - Angara is suppose to replace multiple families of rockets, like Proton, Kosmos or Zenit, what means less maintenance, lower production costs, lower operational costs
  
• Russians also hope that by phasing out post-soviet launch systems they will get rid of reliability issues that they had in recent years.
  
• Changzheng 5 isn't ready yet and it's Chinese rocket, Russians want something on their own. It's like saying that Antares rockets are pointless cause CZ-5 is larger and more powerful. lol
  
• Angara will be more powerful. At least in heavier versions.
  

Russia is the world leading provider of a satellite launches, so they most of all care about having low costs and a wide range of options for their customers with possibly smooth operations.

[NASAFanboy]

You forgot that Angara is a completely Russian-built rocket that does not use any foreign components. This way, they could keep launching even under sanctions for their actions in Ukraine. Wise move, Putin, wise move.

[Sky_walker]

You forgot that Angara is a completely Russian-built rocket that does not use any foreign components. This way, they could keep launching even under sanctions for their actions in Ukraine. Wise move, Putin, wise move.

Good point. Sorry, I thought it's obvious >_>

Have some rep.

[Kryten]

[*]It's much more modern, can push cargo from Plesetsk to GEO (look at the map how far north that space port is)

Proton could push cargo from Plesetsk as well, with the approiate launchpad; Angara just needs to be at Plesetsk because Vostochny is going nowhere and the Khazaks won't allow any new drop zones out of Baikonur.

[*]It doesn't use toxic fuel unlike previous russian rockets

Most flights will still use the Hydrazine-powered Briz stage, actually.

[*]It's modular, so it'll be cheaper to build large and small launch vehicles at the same time and cheaper to transport them

Almost all demand is for the A5 version, and A5 is going to be roughly twice as expensive as Proton. Similarly, A1 is unlikely to be any cheaper than the mostly tried-and-tested Soyuz 2.1V.

[*]If we're on a topic of prices - Angara is suppose to replace multiple families of rockets, like Proton, Kosmos or Zenit, what means less maintenance, lower production costs, lower operational costs

The Zenit replacement version (A3) is not funded and likely will never fly. Kosmos has already been retired, and Sozuz 2.1V is already flying for less in that size class.

[*]Russians also hope that by phasing out post-soviet launch systems they will get rid of reliability issues that they had in recent years.

Think about that for a second; Proton was a lot more reliable five years ago than it is today. Was it any more 'post-soviet' back then? Or is it due to the same crumbling quality control structure that now has to work on Angara as well?

[quote name='Sky_walker;1279664

[*]Changzheng 5 isn't ready yet and it's Chinese rocket' date=' Russians want something on their own. It's like saying that Antares rockets are pointless cause CZ-5 is larger and more powerful. lol

[/quote']

Did you even read the post I responded to? He was saying Angara gave them an advantage over other nations; if other nations have comparable developments, that obviously isn't true.

[quote=Sky_walker;1279664

[*]Angara will be more powerful. At least in heavier versions.

[Sky_walker]

Ok, before I go into details, let me get one thing straight about all these points you make with "pipe dreams", "likely will never fly", etc.

We're talking here about "next nation that will walk on the moon". That is a pipe dream no matter who you take into account right now, as noone: literally noone has the capacity to pull it off right now nor secured funding to complete this mission. This whole topic is about estimations, plans, ideas, future capacities. So let's stick to that, as if we'd actually try to do the reality checks on everyone - conclusion would be that noone is going to make a moon landing in any foreseeable future as noone is secure enough to tell when and that for sure they'll do it.

Now, back to the topic:

Proton could push cargo from Plesetsk as well, with the approiate launchpad;

[Kryten]

Highlighted you the important part. Angara allows them to do that from wherever they want (payload may vary).

Nope. Again, the Khazaks aren't allowing the russians to close off new stage drop zones in Khazakstan. That means they have no choice but wait a decade or so for Vostochny or use Plesetsk. Proton could have flown from Plesetsk just as well, with investment into a new launchpad.

Source? Or you just pulled it out of nowhere?

Angara 3; development cancelled. Angara 1.1; development cancelled. Angara 7; development never actually started. That only leaves 1.2 and 5; take a look through a Russian launch manifest, and see what the proportion of Proton to Dnepr/Rockot launches is. There's a reason they tested an A5 without boosters instead of the actual orbit-capable 1.2 config.

That's why A5 isn't the only version.

A5 is the one that's actually equivelant to Proton. That another model about the fifth of the size of Proton may be cheaper per-launch is irrelevant.

Different classes, hardly comparable.

One is 3 tons to LEO, the other 4 tons to LEO. That's hardly enough to put them in completely different classes.

So far we've had just one test launch. Hardly enough to pass a judgment like you try to do here. Look up the history of Ariane launchers - they usually ended with beautiful disasters at the very first launch, so Russians are at least that much better.

But we have had 82 Proton-M launches, more than enough to give a picture of quality control at Krunichev. And it's not a terribly pleasant picture.

Nothing about Angara giving them an advantage over anyone. Just the "feel the power and self-confidence".

Is that not an advantage?

[Simon Ross]

Simple answer USA

No other country is even in the ball park in terms of potential genuine heavy lift capability

Simon