SLS Launch Date Now/Likely Set For November 2018

[Nicholander]

Space News Report

Florida Today Report

Nothing really to say here other then we'll (Likely) have to wait 11 more months until the first launch of the Space Launch System.

If another thread has already been set up discussing it, link me to it please.

[Dkmdlb]

Oh boy. Here we go again.

[Nicholander]

Uh... I don't know whether you mean that this is too insignificant for me to make thread, a thread like this has already been made before, or that the Orion/SLS been delayed yet another god damn time.

Edited August 29, 2014 by Nicholander

[Sky_walker]

Oh boy. Here we go again.

My thoughts exactly.

Before that the announced date was December 2017. Now it's November 2018.

My bet?

After the elections it'll be canceled just like Ares V was and USA pretty much can forget about it's own launch system in any foreseeable future.

Gerstenmaier said (...) “I still think we have a good chance of SLS being there some time in the December [2017] timeframe, maybe slightly into 2018 depending on what happens,â€Â

Jesus, just fire that guy already!

Edited August 29, 2014 by Sky_walker
second quote

[Nicholander]

*Sigh* And the Orion's first test flight will probably be pushed back into 2015, and then 2016, and then... It gets canceled, that's what. Do you guys think that we will just give up on developing out own large LV and manned spacecraft and just use SpaceX's Falcon 9 Heavy and Dragon as our de-facto LV and manned spacecraft?

[Kryten]

Have you all forgotten what industry this is? If delay of LVs led to cancellation, there wouldn't be any LVs.

[Sky_walker]

*Sigh* And the Orion's first test flight will probably be pushed back into 2015, and then 2016, and then... It gets canceled, that's what. Do you guys think that we will just give up on developing out own large LV and manned spacecraft and just use SpaceX's Falcon 9 Heavy and Dragon as our de-facto LV and manned spacecraft?

Looks that way. SpaceX got an outstanding PR (arguably the best one any space industry company ever had) and huge lobby force in the government to pull resources away from NASA into the private pockets, but to be fair - it's not like NASA makes their jobs any more difficult. With lack of reasonable funding estimations, various management issues, and tons of other, smaller problems - sometimes I wonder if they want to build that rocket or is it just a way to keep everyone employed for as long as possible.

I really hold thumbs for NASA to make SLS work. But each time I hear news about it - I just shake my head.

Have you all forgotten what industry this is? If delay of LVs led to cancellation, there wouldn't be any LVs.

Have you forgotten the history of post-Space Race NASA?

[Kryten]

Have you forgotten the history of post-Space Race NASA?

Have you? Space Station Freedom was roughly two decades late and still got launched. Everything else got hit by budget or technical hurdles, not time pressures.

[Sky_walker]

Have you? Space Station Freedom was roughly two decades late and still got launched. Everything else got hit by budget or technical hurdles, not time pressures.

...or politics. Yes. And that's exactly the direction that SLS is heading.

Remember: Time = money. Time = change in political landscape.

To quote the article:

In July, a report by the Government Accountability Office warned of a significant risk of insufficient funding that would delay the first SLS launch by six months and add $400 million to the program’s overall costs.

And here we get a news about 11 month delay.

That's over 700 million dollars if there's a linear connection between these two.

Edited August 29, 2014 by Sky_walker

[Nicholander]

It got launched as the ISS, and many of the critical modules were launched by Russia, and it's current only crew ferry is the Russian Soyuz... Anyway, I wouldn't consider the ISS space station freedom, though I guess you COULD consider it a combination of Mir-2 and Space Station Freedom.

[Sky_walker]

though I guess you COULD consider it a combination of Mir-2 and Space Station Freedom.

Well, it pretty much: was that.

Anyway - makes me wonder how that will affect the ambitions of other countries, especially Russia. SLS if completed could be one of the driving motors to push them into development of their own heavy variants of Angara.

Edited August 29, 2014 by Sky_walker

[Nicholander]

Well, okay, it's not just Russia and the US, but Columbus and Kibo/JEM are pretty small, though the JEM/Kibo is the largest shuttle launched module on the space station. Also, not to get off-topic, but I wonder if the ESA will ever make a manned spacecraft in the near-future... (They tried with Hermes, but it got canceled)

[Kryten]

...or politics. Yes. And that's exactly the direction that SLS is heading.

Remember: Time = money. Time = change in political landscape.

SLS exists because of parts of the politicial landscape that aren't changing anytime soon. There was no industry based on X-33 or X-38, but the people behind Freedom got ISS, and now that's going they get the SLS core stage. The shuttle workforce gets CXP, and the CXP workforce gets SLS. As far as we can tell SLS is doable with flat budget, so it'll probably reach the flight article point, but if it does it's immaterial. The rocket is a side effect.

Also, not to get off-topic, but I wonder if the ESA will ever make a manned spacecraft in the near-future... (They tried with Hermes, but it got canceled)

No program for that has got past the council of ministers. Crewed flight doesn't fit in with the ESA ethos.

[Sky_walker]

Well, okay, it's not just Russia and the US, but Columbus and Kibo/JEM are pretty small, though the JEM/Kibo is the largest shuttle launched module on the space station. Also, not to get off-topic, but I wonder if the ESA will ever make a manned spacecraft in the near-future... (They tried with Hermes, but it got canceled)

ESA teamed up with Dream Chaser - there's some preliminary work over a proposition for developing Europeanized version called "DC4EU". At a very least - ESA will rent DC and launch it from US.

In the most optimistic scenario... well, here's an interview (translate) where the Administrator of DLR suggests launching it onboard Ariane 5 (Ariane was designed to be human rated from a beginning, so as far as it's very unlikely to happen - it's not totally impossible).

SLS exists because of parts of the politicial landscape that aren't changing anytime soon.

Optimist, I see.

Edited August 29, 2014 by Sky_walker

[Nicholander]

Kryten, why do you think the political landscape of the US will not change?

[Javster]

Well, the latest news was "we delivered a huge heatshield by plane!" AFAIK. It's going really slowly.

[Kryten]

Kryten, why do you think the political landscape of the US will not change?

The relevant 'political landscape' is the existence of congress, hence CXP being brought back from the dead by it despite the change in administration.