Modeling the spread of Ebola

[PakledHostage]

I found this article in Science Magazine's website about numerical modeling of the spread of Ebola and thought I would share it.

They are careful to point out that "garbage in equals garbage out" but their findings are fuel for discussion. Certainly groups like the UN, MSF and the WHO want to control panic as much as they want to control the actual spread of the outbreak, but I wonder if they aren't downplaying the risks too much? These researcher's numerical model seems to suggest that things will get worse than any of those organizations are admitting in their public statements.

I would like to keep this a science discussion rather than sensationalis or alarmist discussion, but what do readers here think will be required to get this outbreak under control?

[Aningaaq]

How to get the outbreak under control? Hmmm. My vague answer is "educating the people". While it isn't an immediate affect, it certainly can benefit any direct methods that diminish the spread of ebola. Not a really scientific answer but rather a social/cultural approach. As the article says, applying such a concept in the field can ultimately be very difficult. Epidemiologists working with cultural anthropologists may be able to find a way to educate those that might be affected by this spread. This likely would be a slow process but in my opinion, essential.

[lajoswinkler]

We'll see a lot more damage done by ebola virus in the future. This is just the beggining. It probably won't be disastrous, but it will be more serious than what WHO and others are saying.

Avoid physical contact with strangers and wash your hands. Ebola is spreading fast in Africa because most people there have poor hygienic culture and/or lack of running water.

The virus, unless it mutates into something even more horrific, is rather easy to avoid if you don't touch or lick other people or their bodily fluids, if you don't engage in coitus with strangers and if you wash your hands with a soap.

[Herr Doktor Strangemember]

I wonder if the model reflects the fact that most viruses get less effective as they reproduce, also I'd look into artificial transmission. One of my nightmares is that Boko Haram or someone like them will deliberately infect people.

Of course in that part of Africa trust in the government and doctors is in short supply which adds to the problem. Lack supplies to treat and contain the spread, one of the highest groups at risk are the doctors, nurses and hospital staff.

What can be done to control it...drastic action. The areas effected need to be contained, vigorously. When new infection is located contain that as well, reduce as much as you can the ability of the virus to travel. With it's spread slowed it will kill itself, Ebola Zaire, has a death rate of 75% IIRC unless it can spread it will run out of new hosts. Once transmission is reduced below a certain point then send in people to treat what you can and bury/burn the dead. Keep the active quarantine up for months until you sure it is dead, dead, dead.

On the other hand the last mass outbreak which was only 300 or so was in the '90s I think medical advances have come along way since then so a firewall defense against the spread will kill people that could be saved...Dammed if you do, dammed it you don't.

Now excuse me I need to stop thinking about this.

Regards.

[PakledHostage]

The virus, unless it mutates into something even more horrific, is rather easy to avoid if you don't touch or lick other people or their bodily fluids, if you don't engage in coitus with strangers and if you wash your hands with a soap.

Intuitively, it makes sense that the virus isn't that contagious. After all, it is currently endemic in highly populated regions that lack adequate sanitation and clean water, yet it has "only" spread to a few thousand people so far.

Even so, I think that Aningaaq makes a good point. Educating the people is a key component of controlling the spread. It sounds like public health efforts are having some effect because I've read reports that people are avoiding physical contact and are washing their hands everywhere they go.

But there's a darker side too. People who have been exposed to the virus have to understand that they carry a burden of responsibility themselves too. Two recent cases where several health workers were unwittingly exposed to the disease while trying to care for a person who they thought was only sick with malaria occurred after the patients (or their families) lied about their being exposed to Ebola. Contrast that with the incredible story of the people of Eyam, England who chose to isolate themselves when plague was discovered there in 1665, rather than let the infection spread.

In the absence of a vaccine, sanitation and social responsibility will probably be the greatest factors in getting this outbreak under control.

Edit:

On the other hand the last mass outbreak which was only 300 or so was in the '90s I think medical advances have come along way since then [...]

I read another article that indicated that the genome of the virus responsible for this outbreak has already been sequenced as part of the effort to understand how it has spread so far. They know that it has mutated a few times already and can trace it all the way back to patient zero. That is pretty impressive.

I also understand (someone please correct me if I am wrong) that the experimental drug Zmapp introduces three antibodies that interfere with the virus' ability to cause damage. IIRC, the antibodies are grown in GMO tobacco plants. Again, that is pretty impressive technology! In short, there's hope that this can eventually be brought under control with biomedical technology, but while we wait for that, the world community needs to continue to supply public education, sanitation, clean water and health care to the affected areas.

Edited September 1, 2014 by PakledHostage

[Rainbowtrout]

From what I know, so long as the public is aware, even if there was a case in the developed world, it wouldn't spread so easily. Why? We have better healthcare that West Africa, and a more private general culture. We would know about it, and what to do. There would be some deviations in this pattern, but on the whole, it could possibly burn itself out, which (unless we can get a cure/vaccination going) is currently our best chance, if it can burn itself out.

[Aningaaq]

From what I know, so long as the public is aware, even if there was a case in the developed world, it wouldn't spread so easily. Why? We have better healthcare that West Africa, and a more private general culture. We would know about it, and what to do. There would be some deviations in this pattern, but on the whole, it could possibly burn itself out, which (unless we can get a cure/vaccination going) is currently our best chance, if it can burn itself out.

Exactly. Educating the public is key.