Russia moving Soyuz training to Crimea

[Red Iron Crown]

Russia is apparently planning to move Soyuz cosmonaut survival training back to Sevastopol, Crimea.

This puts foreign astronauts from the US, EU and Japan in an awkward position. They must complete the survival training to qualify for flight aboard Soyuz. But to travel there without a Ukrainian visa would be tacit acknowledgement of the legitimacy of Russia's actions regarding Crimea.

Leaving aside any political discussion about Russia and Crimea, how do you think this will affect non-Russian astronauts? Will they accept training there due to Russia's near monopoly on manned launch capability? Or will they stop flying on Soyuz and wait for another manned launch capability to develop? The nearest to readiness is the CCDev program AFAIK, but that is likely a year or more away from regular launches. Will CCDev be fast-tracked?

Please, please try to keep the discussion apolitical, just about the manned launch capabilities.

[Guest]

Well, this looks like a political play, for sure. They know just how awkward the situation is and are trying to exploit that. I think that some astronauts might boycott it, but most of them will likely not. It's an embarrassment that the US doesn't have manned launch capacity and Russians are able to do those things in first place.

[NASAFanboy]

Nice one Putin. Very clever. If CCDev is fast tracked, we could probably push it down to another year, or even maybe 2015. This means that the American crew on the station just got their stay extended by a year

[Streetwind]

So what keeps the astronauts from applying for Ukrainian visas?

They just have to approach the Ukraninian government and say: issue us some visas, it'll make it look to the world like Crimea is still part of Ukraine. I guarantee you, they'll instantly do it, even if these visas have no meaning whatsoever beyond pure symbolism. Russia may not be happy about it, but then again they have a $70 million contract for each of these foreign astronauts that stipulates that these foreign astronauts must train in Russia to fly on Russian spacecraft. They cannot refuse them entry without breach of contract, resulting in the loss of that money.

[KerikBalm]

Putin would be more than happy to say "Spaces goes you not to today!"

Even if Russia lets them in, it lets them into Crimea, and the contract says they train in Russia, accepting it means that you accept Crimea is Russian.

Well played Putin, well Played...

I can't believe we didn't develop a backup to the space shuttle... we have plenty of launch vehicles... yet none were/still are meant for manned use.

The US of the 60's is beating us...

[Frozen_Heart]

Even retaining the Space Shuttle would have been a better idea than losing all capacity to get to space altogether! I think that this is likely to push commercial crew development forward though which is a good thing.

Clever move by Putin though.

[Reddragon]

If NASA refused to send astronauts to the ISS until CCP competitors are ready, that would mean the station has to be shut down for 2-3 years. This would basically halt the Soyuz program as well for that time. Also the US pays hundreds of millions for Soyuz rides until 2017 which Roscosmos was welcoming from the beginning. And yes, CCP has to be accelerated.

[Rainbowtrout]

Preliminary mod reminder: Keep away from politics

[Streetwind]

If NASA refused to send astronauts to the ISS until CCP competitors are ready, that would mean the station has to be shut down for 2-3 years. This would basically halt the Soyuz program as well for that time. Also the US pays hundreds of millions for Soyuz rides until 2017 which Roscosmos was welcoming from the beginning. And yes, CCP has to be accelerated.

You cannot "shut down the station". I mean, you could literally leave and plan to not come back up for a few years, but that's not a viable option.

For starters, the station must be reboosted at least once or twice per year or it will fall out of orbit. This is currently performed by Russian Progress freighters while they deliver food and supplies. No crew on board -> no reason to launch Progress -> no reboosts -> station will not live to see another year.

Now, even if that problem was somehow solved (for instance, Russia has a vested interest in keeping the Russian modules in orbit, as they are meant to be used as the core for a proposed Russian station after the end of the ISS program), you still couldn't just abandon the station willy-nilly. There are six people up there working 60-hour-weeks to keep things running and do experiments. There's a ton of long-term science going on there. Stop now, miss even one single crew cycle, and you just nuked half a decade of in-progress orbital science. And it will take another half decade to resume these experiments after you re-man the station, because most of them would have to be rebuilt and launched fresh and then catch up on lost time. Except you don't have half a decade left in the ISS program at that time if the program doesn't get extended...

No, all involved parties know that shutting down the station is not an option. It's the single most expensive structure humans have built in the entire history of human civilization, and not by a small margin. It's like the bad banks in the recessions a few years ago... "too big to fail". Whatever political maneuvering is done here on Earth, the station will serve its term until at least 2020. And though some parties are still feigning disinterest, I'm fairly sure the project will be extended into 2024 too.

All of this barring World War 3 of course. But I don't think people will be that stupid.

[Red Iron Crown]

If only Russians were to be launched on Soyuz to ISS, could they keep it running in the interim? Is a US or other nationality's presence required to keep the station operational?

[Reddragon]

All of this barring World War 3 of course. But I don't think people will be that stupid.

I wouldn't say WW3 but a new small scale cold war probably. The project has been officially extended to 2024 but the Russians aren't going to be involved after 2020, as they stated.

If only Russians were to be launched on Soyuz to ISS, could they keep it running in the interim? Is a US or other nationality's presence required to keep the station operational?

According to Charles Bolden, yes.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Reddragon

[Streetwind]

The project has been officially extended to 2024 but the Russians aren't going to be involved after 2020, as they stated.

Source? As far as I know only the US has formalized that part, but there is no agreement with international partners yet. Germany screamed "yes us too!" but needs to go through ESA, and ESA recently had other things to discuss (such as the whole Ariane 6 brouhaha). Russia has not completely ruled out cooperation either, they just haven't indicated any desire to sign the deal right now. This may be different a few years down the road. I don't know a thing about Canada and Japan in this regard.

[Kryten]

Rogozin said it, but Rogozin has a habit of-to use a local colloquialism-talking out of his arse.

[Red Iron Crown]

According to Charles Bolden, yes.

I worded my question poorly, do you mean yes as in US presence is required or yes as in the Russians could keep it going? (Can't watch a 90-minute video, and claims of requirements in a budget review are a bit subject to exaggeration). My question was meant to be, "Can the Russian cosmonauts alone keep ISS and its experiments going, if they have US ground support?"

[Kryten]

I worded my question poorly, do you mean yes as in US presence is required or yes as in the Russians could keep it going? (Can't watch a 90-minute video, and claims of requirements in a budget review are a bit subject to exaggeration). My question was meant to be, "Can the Russian cosmonauts alone keep ISS and its experiments going, if they have US ground support?"

They aren't trained to use or maintain the USOS equipment; that's why there's always at least one russian or USOS crewmember during changeover.

[Red Iron Crown]

The more I learn about it, the more ISS seems like two stations flying in very tight formation.

[Reddragon]

The more I learn about it, the more ISS seems like two stations flying in very tight formation.

That is quite the case actually. I think the ISS could be separated in case the cooperation collapses. I know it would be illogical and it would have technical difficulties but unfortunately whatever happens down here can influence the project up there. The Russian administration is really looking forward to separate itself from working together with NASA and go along á la soviet style.

Source? As far as I know only the US has formalized that part, but there is no agreement with international partners yet. Germany screamed "yes us too!" but needs to go through ESA, and ESA recently had other things to discuss (such as the whole Ariane 6 brouhaha). Russia has not completely ruled out cooperation either, they just haven't indicated any desire to sign the deal right now. This may be different a few years down the road. I don't know a thing about Canada and Japan in this regard.

Correct, but some ISS science projects can be separated and be continued without co-op with some losses in progress.

http://www.space.com/24208-international-space-station-extension-2024.html

I worded my question poorly, do you mean yes as in US presence is required or yes as in the Russians could keep it going? (Can't watch a 90-minute video, and claims of requirements in a budget review are a bit subject to exaggeration). My question was meant to be, "Can the Russian cosmonauts alone keep ISS and its experiments going, if they have US ground support?"

For some reason I think NASA would let cosmonauts operate the ISS for the time of 2-4 expedition teams since they can train ESA and Japanese astronauts to operate most equipment in the US segments if Soyuz is off for US astronauts. Again we have to remember it's not Roscosmos who decides what is going to happen but the government.

[Javster]

Very very clever, encourages the US government to put more money into space stuff. Maybe they'll triple the NASA budget?? (not holding my breath)

[SelectHalfling0]

I must say, well played.

[TheShadow1138]

Since I don't know for certain, do the astronauts have to go through training before each flight even if they have flown on Soyuz before? If not, then one option I would think would be viable would be for only astronauts that have flown on Soyuz would be assigned to Expedition flights. If this were the case then those astronauts would probably find their assignment frequency increase, and put those who haven't flown on Soyuz at a disadvantage until we have crew transport capability once more.