CME X-class solar flare inbound

[vger]

Get ready for some possible auroras. And... some possible issues with electronics. More data is needed before they can be sure of when it will arrive.

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/9/20140910-x16-solar-flare-from-sunspot-region-2158

[bsalis]

So when will it arrive.. roughly?

[Dominatus]

Can you check the aurora prediction in Michigan for me? Can't get to a computer now.

[PakledHostage]

So when will it arrive.. roughly?

The University of Fairbanks Aurora Forecast is predicting increased activity on Friday and Saturday. Their forecaster comments are:

The effects of a solar event on the 9th of September facing roughly toward Earth should reach Earth around midnight on September 11th UT. Another, larger event occurred on September 10th that should have higher velocity. The effects from the latter event may reach Earth at the same time. Even if it is later, disturbances should be large and last long enough to result in increased auroral activity anytime for three or four days. The result is that aurora watchers should watch http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

for the next five to seven days. We will post more accurate predictions when the observations of the solar activity have been analyzed.

[Deadpangod3]

Will it damage any computers or anything? Or will it not even get though Earths magnetic field?

[lajoswinkler]

Will it damage any computers or anything? Or will it not even get though Earths magnetic field?

Nah. These things shine upon us every now and then. GPS might start working funny, that's about it.

[Dominatus]

... Sorry about the short post previously. I'm currently in class and had to go. Okay, so that website should offer a map detailing predicted aurora over the next there to four days. I cannot view this with my phone, and would appreciate an update as to where the activity can be expected. (Specifically if I will finally see an aurora in mid-michigan)

[PakledHostage]

I cannot view this with my phone, and would appreciate an update as to where the activity can be expected. (Specifically if I will finally see an aurora in mid-michigan)

Mid-Michigan is generaly a pretty good place to view auroras from within the continental US. You are at a fairly high magnetic latitude (i.e.closer to the magnetic north pole than many other locations in the lower 48). For your best chance of seeing them, get out to somewhere very dark at midnight. 1:00 am might be a bit better because you're probably currently in daylight savings time. If there happens to be a strong aurora at that time, you'll see it. You just have to take the chance.

Take a camera and a tripod if you do go out. You'll need a long exposure (roughly 15-30 seconds at f5.6 and ISO 1600), but the camera will see it more clearly than you will with the naked eye.

Edit: I should add that you can get a sense of whether or not it is worthwhile going out before you leave the house by looking at the Ovation site that I linked to above. Lots of red over your part of the sky is a good sign. You can also have a quick look at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's magnetic field plots. The red line on the top plot is the important one. You want Bz values below -5 and ideally near -10. I am sure someone here can explain better than I can why those values are important, but my understanding is that they indicate how well the solar magnetic field is aligned with the Earth's magnetic field.

Edited September 11, 2014 by PakledHostage

[PakledHostage]

So when will it arrive.. roughly?

Something is starting as of this writing. Planetary Kp index just shot up. Unfortunately, the Bz component of the Sun's magnetic field alignment is significantly in the wrong direction. And the NOAA Ovation site seems to be down. Probably from all the people spamming the forecast page. Maybe some of you northern Europeans can see something? Fingers crossed that we do get to see a spectacular aurora tonight and that it lasts for a few more hours until nightfall in North America.

Edit: Seems all the hype was over hyped... As of this writing, the ACE data suggests that there may have been something at about 2100 UTC on the 12th, but the show's probably over by now. Hopefully people in Scandinavia had clear skies. I don't think anyone else would have seen anything. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.

Edited September 13, 2014 by PakledHostage

[bsalis]

Looks like it's a double. Another is on its way.

If i'm lucky I may be able to witness the Southern Lights. I happen t be in Tasmania atm.

[Tw1]

Looks like it's a double. Another is on its way.

If i'm lucky I may be able to witness the Southern Lights. I happen t be in Tasmania atm.

Lucky. I'm probably too far north in Sydney. At least, that's what all the data seems to be showing.

[quote=PakledHostage;

Edit: I should add that you can get a sense of whether or not it is worthwhile going out before you leave the house by looking at the Ovation site that I linked to above. Lots of red over your part of the sky is a good sign.

Edited September 13, 2014 by Tw1

[vger]

Big CME's have been pretty rare as of late, so it's really not that surprising that the news was on this.

And this isn't exactly like making a snow flurry look like a blizzard. Predicting auroras (or even the arrival of a solar flare) is sketchy at best, kind of like meteor storms.

I can't even tell if they know we've been hit by both bursts yet or just the first one. There was some thought that they'd arrive at the same time and create a even bigger show, but it turns out that wasn't going to happen. Did #2 (the big one) hit yet or not?

[PakledHostage]

And this isn't exactly like making a snow flurry look like a blizzard. Predicting auroras (or even the arrival of a solar flare) is sketchy at best, kind of like meteor storms.

While I was similarly critical of the media hype, I agree that these things are extremely difficult to forecast. And to be fair to the space weather forecasters, they WERE bang on with their forecasts.

According to the POES site, there was level 10 activity late yesterday evening, UT. There was also very strong auroral activity ~16 hours before that. The trouble was that the first episode, although visible from much of the Canadian prairies, wasn't as strong as the second episode and the second episode only lasted a bit more than an hour. The second episode would probably have been spectacular from Scandinavia, northern Russia and maybe even Scotland. There was also a corresponding aurora down south, but unless you were on Gough Island or a ship, you probably wouldn't have seen it. Australia, like North America, were in the wrong half of the planet, given the timing. (You can still see the start/end of the favorable conditions for the second episode in the ACE data plot below. Bz only goes from strongly positive to negative at about 2000 UT and everything ends abruptly just after 2200 UT.)

I can't speak to whether or not the second CME has reached us yet, but the aurora forecast app on my phone is predicting strong auroras again in about 8-10 hours from the time of this writing. The ACE satellite data seems to be trending in the right direction too: