Ulsa (united lunar states of america)

[Bill Phil]

But you are effectively requiring an ultimate engineering problem (self-replicating machines) to be solved as prerequisite for completing an infinitely easier problem.

We can build a moon base right now. Nobody seems to want to fund it, but we have the resources if people suddenly decided that it's worth funding. We can't build self-replicating machines of any relevant complexity or durability, regardless of how much money we throw at it.

Depends. You don't need 3d printing for self-replication. If it's a decent size it can use standard production methods, but it would be much larger and more complicated.

We can build the machines I speak of, but nobody's tried to. Think of that for a while.

[K^2]

GMO = Genetically Modified Organism.

And there are a lot of people trying to build self-replicating machines, with no success. There have been attempts to make 3D printers that can print their own parts. These came close. Also, there are milling machines that can mill their own parts. But that requires an operator, which cannot be build on a mill.

As for using 3D printing on the Moon for construction, that has been suggested, and is being considered.

[Bill Phil]

GMO = Genetically Modified Organism.

We already have done that to plants, so why not algae?

[K^2]

We have already done that to algae as well. There isn't any reason. The question is only if we can do enough GM to make them a universal source. I'm on your side with that. I'm pretty sure we can. Again, there could be budget constraints, but I don't think there are any tech limitations.

[vger]

I don't understand why you need AI for Von Neumann machines, they're given input dependent commands. Then they're told to gather resources and build what they need to.

Because gathering resources isn't an exact science. You can't just drop a robot somewhere, tell it to dig, and expect to get what you want. LOTS of planning goes into mining, and that requires a machine that is capable of advanced problem solving.

[Bill Phil]

We have already done that to algae as well. There isn't any reason. The question is only if we can do enough GM to make them a universal source. I'm on your side with that. I'm pretty sure we can. Again, there could be budget constraints, but I don't think there are any tech limitations.

I don't think a universal algae as food is the best plan, it would probably take some serious trial and error. If we amplify already present traits, then we could use different forms of algae in the same diet. It wouldn't be as* difficult.

If I recall correctly, algae is also extremely efficient at CO2 filtering. Does anyone know more about this?

I guess some forms would be, but not all, considering that algae is a very broad term.

I keep thinking back to Prelude to Foundation, where the Trantorians used micro-agriculture. I wonder if it would be useful as a cheap and easy food on Earth. That could help with food problems here and in space.

* emphasis on "as", as most genetic manipulation is fairly difficult

[Bill Phil]

Because gathering resources isn't an exact science. You can't just drop a robot somewhere, tell it to dig, and expect to get what you want. LOTS of planning goes into mining, and that requires a machine that is capable of advanced problem solving.

You would need chemical analysis tools, and tell it to check every fourth-meter. Problem solving? We have billions of problem solvers here. The Moon is only a little over a light second away. Although I suppose you would lose contact every once in a while. However, communications satellites could solve that problem.

Maybe not SELF-replicating machines, but machines that are built by a larger "parent".

[vger]

If I recall correctly, algae is also extremely efficient at CO2 filtering. Does anyone know more about this? I guess some forms would be, but not all, considering that algae is a very broad term.

Algae is a type of phytoplankton, which in general terms, is credited with being the first 'terraformers' of Earth, providing it with an atmosphere capable of supporting more complex lifeforms. Even today, without phytoplankton, our breathable atmosphere would likely go to Hell in a handbasket.

You would need chemical analysis tools, and tell it to check every fourth-meter. Problem solving? We have billions of problem solvers here. The Moon is only a little over a light second away. Although I suppose you would lose contact every once in a while. However, communications satellites could solve that problem.

Maybe not SELF-replicating machines, but machines that are built by a larger "parent".

Yeah, you could try to run a mining operation in the same way that the Mars rovers are analyzing rocks, with a lot of work, prompting humans to confirm every action before its executed. Whether you'd really want to do it that way is probably more dependent upon just how much material needs to be gathered. Creation of a quarry is an engineering challenge on its own, independent of the machines required to do it.

Edited November 8, 2014 by vger

[Bill Phil]

Yeah, you could try to run a mining operation in the same way that the Mars rovers are analyzing rocks, with a lot of work, prompting humans to confirm every action before its executed. Whether you'd really want to do it that way is probably more dependent upon just how much material needs to be gathered. Creation of a quarry is an engineering challenge on its own, independent of the machines required to do it.

I don't think your analogy is very good. Mars is many light MINUTES away. Which means that it's a real tedium for the guys running the rovers. The moon is much closer. The operation would get easier and easier once you have the on-site logistics up and running, then the robots would build the base.

[K^2]

That's true. There is a lot more we could be doing with robots on the Moon than we can on Mars. Anyone who ever played games with particularly bad ping will attest that 2s lag is a real pain to play with, but something you could manage with a bit of practice. So as long as no twitch response is needed, we could be running robots that are directly controlled by pilots down here on Earth.

[vger]

Guilty as charged. I've gotten too accustomed to thinking in terms of Mars transmission speeds.

[WestAir]

By the time we even need lunar robots they'll probably be autonomous enough to only need intermittent piloting.

Programming a robot to dig trenches isn't necessarily the most complex of tasks. (This is me assuming. I have never worked in computer programming )

[K^2]

Programming a robot to dig trenches isn't necessarily the most complex of tasks. (This is me assuming. I have never worked in computer programming )

You know, you'd think so. But after spending a few years in competitive robotics during High School, I've stopped making assumptions like this. There's always something that's going to go wrong and will require human operation. But yeah, it can probably be automated a great deal. For the most part. So long as someone's watching and can hit a big red "abort" button.

[NERVAfan]

We have already done that to algae as well. There isn't any reason. The question is only if we can do enough GM to make them a universal source. I'm on your side with that. I'm pretty sure we can. Again, there could be budget constraints, but I don't think there are any tech limitations.

Oh, I'm pretty sure it's possible. In fact, you might be able to form a complete diet by combining different species of existing algae (spirulina is a complete protein, for example, though as a cyanobacterium you could argue it's technically not an "alga").

But I don't think an all algae diet would be much fun.

[NERVAfan]

And there are a lot of people trying to build self-replicating machines, with no success. There have been attempts to make 3D printers that can print their own parts. These came close. Also, there are milling machines that can mill their own parts. But that requires an operator, which cannot be build on a mill

Yeah, there's a huge huge difference between a machine which can make its own parts and a machine that can actually self-assemble.

I'm pretty skeptical of self-replicating machines that would work on the Moon - life needs a water medium and generally has a much more restricted temperature range, as it does it by chemistry rather than assembly of macroscopic parts.

[MockKnizzle]

It seems to me that the real issue when it comes to self-replicating machines isn't in the bulk parts of the machine, but in the microcircuitry necessary for its brain. I'm not sure 3D printing has quite advanced to printing microprocessors yet.

[KerikBalm]

I wasn't over estimating 3d printing, and I was using the general term. Should I have said additive manufacturing devices? I said fairly near future, as in within 100 years but not 50. And if you consider how much technology is advancing already, it's likely. I don't understand why you need AI for Von Neumann machines, they're given input dependent commands. Then they're told to gather resources and build what they need to.

I'd say you are overestimating it, by a lot. If you don't understand why advanced AI is needed for Von neumann machines, you either don't understand what such a machine is, or what AI is, or the complexity of the task for such a machine.

You can't make every component out of a resin. How do you make the resin? 3d printing doesn't work for metals, for that you need CNC tools. Which means you'll need to identify the proper ores, smelt it, sufficiently purify it, etc. The electronics manufacturing is very complicated.

When all you need is a structural component of marginal strength, 3-d printing is fine.

IF the component needs to have certain electrical properties, certain mechanical strengths, withstand certain temperatures, not be coroded under certain conditions, have very tight tolerances, etc, 3d printing won't suffice.

Its good for making simple low strength mechanical parts. You need a lot more than that for a self propagating system.

as most genetic manipulation is fairly difficult

Actually, most genetic manipulation is fairly easy- at least in bacteria and yeast and such.

With the new CRISPR technology, its becoming pretty easy in mammals/eukaryotes as well.

We have already done that to algae as well. There isn't any reason. The question is only if we can do enough GM to make them a universal source. I'm on your side with that. I'm pretty sure we can. Again, there could be budget constraints, but I don't think there are any tech limitations.

Indeed, I'm not saying its not possible. I'm just saying its non-trivial. So I don't understand why he was pessimistic/sarcastic about the lack of infrastructure built in the 80's, but then dismisses the hurdles for these other things.

FWIW, I think it would be easier to genetically modify humans to be able to synthesize every vitamin and essential amino acid. There is no reason we couldn't survive on a single food source, other than during our evolution, our diet was sufficiently varied, that loss of function of many synthesis pathways did not negatively affect our fitness.

I would correct that first - its much easier than trying to modify the algal proteome to get the right mix of amino acids.

[Bill Phil]

I'd say you are overestimating it, by a lot. If you don't understand why advanced AI is needed for Von neumann machines, you either don't understand what such a machine is, or what AI is, or the complexity of the task for such a machine.

You can't make every component out of a resin. How do you make the resin? 3d printing doesn't work for metals, for that you need CNC tools. Which means you'll need to identify the proper ores, smelt it, sufficiently purify it, etc. The electronics manufacturing is very complicated.

When all you need is a structural component of marginal strength, 3-d printing is fine.

IF the component needs to have certain electrical properties, certain mechanical strengths, withstand certain temperatures, not be coroded under certain conditions, have very tight tolerances, etc, 3d printing won't suffice.

Its good for making simple low strength mechanical parts. You need a lot more than that for a self propagating system.

Actually, most genetic manipulation is fairly easy- at least in bacteria and yeast and such.

With the new CRISPR technology, its becoming pretty easy in mammals/eukaryotes as well.

Indeed, I'm not saying its not possible. I'm just saying its non-trivial. So I don't understand why he was pessimistic/sarcastic about the lack of infrastructure built in the 80's, but then dismisses the hurdles for these other things.

FWIW, I think it would be easier to genetically modify humans to be able to synthesize every vitamin and essential amino acid. There is no reason we couldn't survive on a single food source, other than during our evolution, our diet was sufficiently varied, that loss of function of many synthesis pathways did not negatively affect our fitness.

I would correct that first - its much easier than trying to modify the algal proteome to get the right mix of amino acids.

Do you know what additive manufacturing is? It applies to all materials in the same sense as 3d printers. Did you not read those very inportant words?

But on to the next point: AI is NOT needed for Von Neumann machines. That's like saying you need AI to guide a spacecraft to its target objective, which you don't. I don't get why you keep stressing AI at all, they're all going to be many dozens of tons with many megawatts of waste heat and the only advantage is that they can think. That's not an advantage this close to Earth. Sure, that would be useful for a starship, but not for anything like Von Neumann machines.

It's difficult due to trial and error, learning what happens. The hardest part is patience, to see if it worked.

If you think that genetically modifying humans is easier, then why have we not? Oh yeah, it's really not. We still don't fully understand what these changes can do, so no one will get behind that and fund it anytime soon

If NASA had the same funding as the 60s in the 80s too, they could have built a logistics system based around Freedom as a staging point in LEO.

[NERVAfan]

trying to modify the algal proteome to get the right mix of amino acids.

There are already algae* that produce all essential amino acids! Spirulina does it right now, no modification needed, and is quite edible - it's eaten as a dietary supplement (though some of the health claims for it are made up).

*ok, cyanobacteria technically, but some people consider them algae anyway...

I wouldn't start messing with human DNA - much more ways that things can go wrong, and much worse consequences if they do. Something like Spirulina is vastly simpler than a human - by orders of magnitude - and mistakes don't end up hurting/killing human beings.

[KerikBalm]

Any food will contain all essential amino acids.

The question is if they are in the right quantities. If you have to eat 100kg of food X to get sufficient leucine, its not a very good food source.

And no, cyanobacteria are not algae.

as to what can go wrong - there is so much death in this world already from genetic diseases if you occasionally screw something up - who cares. Its not like you're going to be modifying all 7 billion peoples genomes simultaneously. Natural selection will still be at work.

And its not that complicated to add a gene to humans, nor is it some great unknown as to what the effects would be. We do it all the time in mice, and in cultured human cells.

Do you know what additive manufacturing is? It applies to all materials in the same sense as 3d printers.

I don't know why I bother with you.

Go try additive manufacturing for magnesium alloys, or carbon fiber, or a steel girder... its obvious you don't understand what you're talking about.

AI is NOT needed for Von Neumann machines.

I don't know why I bother with you, its obvious you don't understand what you're talking about.

If you think that genetically modifying humans is easier, then why have we not? Oh yeah, it's really not. We still don't fully understand what these changes can do, so no one will get behind that and fund it anytime soon

Because of people like you who fear what they don't understand, Because of ethical fears of "übermensch", because people still protest GMO food and would raise hell about GMO humans.

There are many changes that could be made that we would fully understand.

[KSK]

3D printing of metals is not new. Industrially it's been done for quite a while (look up direct laser metal sintering for an example), for rapid prototyping of parts. More recently SpaceX has been using it to produce combustion chambers for their SuperDraco engines. So yeah, printing metals is doable, and relatively easy. Shipping your 3D printer to the Moon and making sure it works under lunar conditions is a different matter and assembling all your nice 3D printed parts into a new 3D printer, without human intervention is just a whole other class of hard.

With regards to AI, that covers a bunch of established technologies. Wikipedia has a good article. These hypothetical moonbase building von Neumann machines wouldn't need to pass a Turing test, but they would need good machine vision, ability to navigate in unfamiliar surroundings (not a trivial task, especially on the Moon. Some of the Apollo astronauts got to grips with their lunar maps fairly easily, others certainly did not), ability to autonomously build new structures. This is not the sci-fi, 'sentient machines taking over the Moon' level of AI, but it is very definitely AI.

TL: DR. It would be easier to send Bruce Willis to the Moon to build your base, than to rely on von Neumann machines.

[Bill Phil]

Any food will contain all essential amino acids.

The question is if they are in the right quantities. If you have to eat 100kg of food X to get sufficient leucine, its not a very good food source.

And no, cyanobacteria are not algae.

as to what can go wrong - there is so much death in this world already from genetic diseases if you occasionally screw something up - who cares. Its not like you're going to be modifying all 7 billion peoples genomes simultaneously. Natural selection will still be at work.

And its not that complicated to add a gene to humans, nor is it some great unknown as to what the effects would be. We do it all the time in mice, and in cultured human cells.

I don't know why I bother with you.

Go try additive manufacturing for magnesium alloys, or carbon fiber, or a steel girder... its obvious you don't understand what you're talking about.

I don't know why I bother with you, its obvious you don't understand what you're talking about.

Because of people like you who fear what they don't understand, Because of ethical fears of "übermensch", because people still protest GMO food and would raise hell about GMO humans.

There are many changes that could be made that we would fully understand.

But why change humans? It would take just as much resources, but more time than others. Plus, you'd have to do it to an embryo, before it has grown. At that stage any tiny change could kill it easily. Then you need to get funding from your government or sponsor to do it again. Good luck with that. I'm not fearful of me not knowing, I know I don't understand it, and few people do. And why are you so inhumane? All people have a right to life.

Additive manufacturing was pioneered in the 1980s, but it still needed a lot of technological development.

I don't know what you're even talking about. It's not easy of course, but nothing in space is, so why not go further? The cells in the human body can replicate and accomplish tasks that are simple. You do the same thing with robots. Specialized variants that are built on a common chassis. That way a factory could build surveyor bots, mining bots, transport bots, etc. It's still difficult, but this is for HUGE lunar bases, not small 6-man ones. But for thousands if not tens of thousands. So it's worth it. This is still in the future though, and I admit I'm optimistic when it comes to using Von Neumann machines, but no one can tell the future can they?

[Bill Phil]

3D printing of metals is not new. Industrially it's been done for quite a while (look up direct laser metal sintering for an example), for rapid prototyping of parts. More recently SpaceX has been using it to produce combustion chambers for their SuperDraco engines. So yeah, printing metals is doable, and relatively easy. Shipping your 3D printer to the Moon and making sure it works under lunar conditions is a different matter and assembling all your nice 3D printed parts into a new 3D printer, without human intervention is just a whole other class of hard.

With regards to AI, that covers a bunch of established technologies. Wikipedia has a good article. These hypothetical moonbase building von Neumann machines wouldn't need to pass a Turing test, but they would need good machine vision, ability to navigate in unfamiliar surroundings (not a trivial task, especially on the Moon. Some of the Apollo astronauts got to grips with their lunar maps fairly easily, others certainly did not), ability to autonomously build new structures. This is not the sci-fi, 'sentient machines taking over the Moon' level of AI, but it is very definitely AI.

TL: DR. It would be easier to send Bruce Willis to the Moon to build your base, than to rely on von Neumann machines.

That's more like Siri AI, though. It's just a name in this case. You need input dependent programming, sure. And probably some kind of lunar GPS, if that's possible at all.

We can build robots that LEARN how navigate a maze, and if you added a new sensor for detecting minerals, it could learn where it is, and subsequent robots can mine it.

[B787_300]

This thread is closed as it is of a political nature and it has gotten WAY off topic. If you would like to discuss what needs to be done to have a viable lunar colony, please make another thread.