New Chinese ship?

[xenomorph555]

As of right now the Shenzhou is a good space ship, in fact it's the worlds best (considering there's only two), it's large, can carry lot's of supplies, has a toilet, etc. But from the start of the next decade it will become more and more obsolete (7 man ships, re-usability, deep space capable, etc) so eventually they will need to replace it.

So the question is, will they replace it and when?

Just your thoughts.

[Kryten]

So far all we know they need is a station taxi. Shenzhou ought to work fine for that for the foreseeable future.

[Tommygun]

Well the shuttle flew for 30 years and Soyuz for close to 50 and counting.

I don't see why they need to change any time soon. It's also pretty modular, so they can upgrade major sections of it without designing a completely new craft.

[Streetwind]

I think that if China gets serious about a manned Moon program, they'll build a new craft. Maybe Shenzou can carry people to the Moon and back, but "boots and flags" has been done ages ago. China might have such a mission as preparation for something greater, maybe, and something greater would benefit a lot from a spacecraft custom-built for the specific needs of that plan.

[xenomorph555]

The current government does have the plan of changing China into the #1 world power. So it's entirely possible the would want a bigger crew ship.

[Geneborg]

They will build something bigger once they need it. For now they need to go to orbit and maybe to the mun. Mun colonies are like...10-15 years in the future, who knows if they will do most of it with robots anyways, so its not certain they will need a new spacecraft for that.

But 15 years is quite some time, could be an evolution like Soyuz (updated at least 9 times)

[LethalDose]

Well the shuttle flew for 30 years and Soyuz for close to 50 and counting.

I don't see why they need to change any time soon. It's also pretty modular, so they can upgrade major sections of it without designing a completely new craft.

I think the solution is here. Unless I'm mistaken, the Shenzhou cribbed heavily from the Soyuz, which has a had a long career. I would expect to see several generations of Shenzhou before the Chinese develop a brand newdesign.

[Kaos]

And a 7 person ship is not neccessarily better than a 3-Person ship. I do not see NASA to plan more than 1 Orion flight per year, while Soyuz seems to keep 3 to 4 flights per year. For much less money! I think Dragon will be much more relevant for US manned space flight than Orion, hence the chineese ship has already a comparible size to all relevant counterparts in my opinion.

[King Arthur]

And a 7 person ship is not neccessarily better than a 3-Person ship.

Considering that the ISS has a maximum crew of 6, we really have no pressing practical need for a 7-man vessel beyond the "we want one!" argument that the SLS is pretty much built upon.

[Lunniy Korabl]

Pretty sure the 7 man figure for new USA ships is just because the shuttle could take 7, so anything less would be perceived as a step backwards by politicians. Same reason they are required to land on land instead of splashdown.

Edited November 17, 2014 by Lunniy Korabl

[Reddragon]

Pretty sure the 7 man figure for new USA ships is just because the shuttle could take 7, so anything less would be perceived as a step backwards by politicians. Same reason they are required to land on land instead of splashdown.

Or if the ISS won't be continued a possible new independent US space station could house a crew of 6-7 and sending them at once is much cheaper. The Commercial Crew Program wont be halted with the ISS. It is meant to cover every LEO operations of NASA from now on.

Edited November 17, 2014 by Reddragon

[Kaos]

By the way: The Indian manned spacecraft in developement has a crew of only two. NASA seems to be the only one to think, that in the currect state it is reasonable to send more than 3 people at once into orbit. I would personaly like them to develop the Nautilus-X instead of Orion. And to stay on topic: Perhaps china can do that instead

[Kryten]

Pretty sure the 7 man figure for new USA ships is just because the shuttle could take 7, so anything less would be perceived as a step backwards by politicians. Same reason they are required to land on land instead of splashdown.

NASA's own requirement is four-figures higher than that are being bandied about by the developers themselves, but flights with those numbers are very unlikely.

[Mazon Del]

Frankly though, having the capacity for 7 people does not necessarily mean the capability is wasted when they don't use it. I'd be a little surprised if they couldn't rig it up to use any empty seats as cargo space.