Who will do the first Mars SRM/Poll

[Newt]

I think that the main issue with who/when a mission such as this will occur is not really a very easy question to answer. I spend a lot of time in an archive that deals with space exploration through the ages, and in the right sections it is no challenge to find new proposals of Mars sample returns, Mars rover sample returns, discussions about new landers and rovers and small solid rockets and recovery stages remaining in orbit, most of which are preparing to launch in just a few years to a decade after the document's production. Of course, none of these happened. Why not? The reason is complex, and changes over time, but this overall trend has left me wary of every proposed sample return mission that I come to. When this happens, if it happens in the reasonably near future and in a situation of similar economics for the space agencies, It will probably have to be a small, basic mission. This is not the test that we can launch prior to sending humans, but a separate mission, with probably a very different architecture from any manned mission, and from prior rover missions as well.

Spacex, probably could not do it. Not unless NASA told them to, and paid for it all, which I would doubt that they would. Spacex currently has been able to demonstrate its ability to complete tasks which seemed somewhat routine 40 years ago, and has yet to demonstrate its ability to construct and fly a complex scientific payload of their own.

China, while more developed than Spacex, is as has been mentioned, somewhat underfunded, and I am skeptical that they would be able to pull off a sample return mission without more experience at Mars. The same goes for India.

Japan and the EU have certainly both demonstrated competence and interest in the development of unmanned spaceflight systems, but both have not done especially much at Mars, although ESA has plans to further develop their Mars program with several planned missions in the upcoming years, including a (as far as I can tell still extremely up in the air) Mars Moon sample return mission. If ESA makes an effort to conduct such a mission to the planet surface, it will probably be a a rather long time and is currently at best in the dreams of engineers and administrators.

NASA is clearly the lead in successful Mars exploration. while there have been many failures for assorted reasons, the US has landed many very succesful vehicles on the surface, and flown many more in flybys and orbits. That said, NASA has also had many proposals for sample returns, as well as manned landings, since the sixties. To date, no such missions have launched, let alone landed back on Earth. Its problems passing that stage are multifold, and encompass budget, interactions between various NASA centers, and political will to carry out such a mission. NASA currently has been alluding to such a mission in the future, but as before, I would hesitate to call it concrete.

Russia also appears to have an actual plan for a 2020's sample return, but I will note that that remains fairly far away, and their are many opportunities for such a mission to be forgotten over that long a time. These opportunities have killed quite a few other sample returns before their ten years were up, and from looking for newer articles about the project, this one may already be dead.

We cannot really know who will launch the first one probably until it launches, or at least until the vehicle is being assembled and experimenters are building their devices. we will not know which one is successful first until the capsule is recovered. Who will do this? If it happens soon, I would suggest that the only contender with experience to make it happen is NASA. If a mission is proposed, and put in place as a clear plan, it will probably have better chances if it is strongly connected to multiple governments; it is harder to pull the plug if several governments have already spent millions of dollars on a project, as US politicians want to keep relations good with French and Italian and German politicians.

If it happens further down the road, it is increasingly difficult to determine. If the EU, China, Japan, Russia, or, who knows, maybe Liechtenstein pursue a determined and successful, well funded Mars program, it is entirely possible that they will be the first, but when that will happen is very unclear.

[xenomorph555]

That was a very good analysis!