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So, for any of y'all writers out there writing something taking place later in the 21st century, I just found this today and it's perhaps the most accurate large-scale geopolitical prediction I've seen so far.
https://akarlin.com/2011/06/future-superpowers/
Unlike most analyses which just extrapolate from current trends, this one actually takes into account things like extreme climate change, resource depletion etc to predict who the next major world powers will be. And in the 8 years since the article was published, it's remained accurate so far.
Just in case anyone's interested.