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Rakaydos

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  1. Rakaydos
    Really? I was under the impression that ULA was part of the NASA space program, and the DoD space program, and the saterlite division of their various contract payload's space programs. What is ULA's objective in space? The only thing making SpaceX a space program, where ULA is not, is their independamt mars ambitions.
  2. Rakaydos
    Yes. my definition does not exclude a profit motive. It is an organized effort, intependant of other organized efforts, to technically reach "space." When NASA contracts Orion to LockeedMartin, it is part of NASA's organized effort relating to space. I'm pretty sure that's what a contract means in the first place. Likewise the various NASA subprograms.
  3. Rakaydos
    Space Program An independant, organized effort relating to space. ULA is not intependant of the NASA or DoD space programs. Virgin Galactic, otoh, is potentially sending people to "space" without any goverment money at all, and thus would be an independant program. SpaceX is using the NASA space program to get a leg up on it's own planned Mars Program
  4. Rakaydos
    Reentry burn. not boostback burn.
  5. Rakaydos
    "Now we know what kind of conditions to expect, I want the Falcon Heavy core to be able to survive twice as much."
  6. Rakaydos
    A better use might be to repurpose the O2 tanks as habitable construction material.
  7. Rakaydos
    Sure, but I think we've already established that SpaceX SHOULD be charging whatever the market will bear for every (paid) launch, so there ought to be a tidy profit margin off those first 20-odd a year. If they run off another 10-20 upperstages at the same time they do the first 30, and produce more Dragons for in-house use, Elon can run his private space program for effectively peanuts.
  8. Rakaydos
    Not TOO much higher launch cadence. If we run with the 10/1 reuse ratio, thats 10 launches for (almost) the same Merlin production ("Engines are the most expensive part of a rocket") as 2 expendable, or a 5/1 increase in cadence to keep the current merlin production the same. SpaceX launched 6 rockets in 2014, their first year with a serious launch cadence. At that same level of merlin production, they can field 30 falcon 9 lanches assuming full reuse- a large number, but not terribly greater than the global launch market figures I've seen posted around, IIRC. Of course, the wildcard in the deck is Falcon Heavy Core reuse. If it can be reused, that's 3 reusable cores to only 1 upperstage. If it cant, it's an expendable falcon 9 PLUS 2 reuable boosters.
  9. Rakaydos
    Depends if the upperstage merlins use the same production line as the lowerstage. If each lowerstage gets 11 launches, that's the same production (of merlins) as 2 complete launches, fully replaced, and far more of economy of scale for upperstage production.
  10. Rakaydos
    " “If SpaceX determines they can’t make the 2018 window and wants to look at the next target of opportunity, then NASA will reassess at that time where we are, and determine at that time whether we want to continue the partnership,” McAlister says. “As it stands right now, the agreement goes out through 2022, but most of the technical area is tied to this first mission.” " Yea, SpaceX is going to move heaven and earth to make 2018 happen. The opportunity is too good to get "reassessed" and miss out on NASA goodies.
  11. Rakaydos
    At the same time, if the difference between costs to spaceX and costs to customer is as large as some sources suggest, Nibbs refrain about spaceX "not being a private space program" might be overstating things. If they earn enough on every paid launch, after expenses, to refurbish a lower stage and replace an upper stage, every commercial launch gives SpaceX a larger fleet of private spacecraft, already paid for.
  12. Rakaydos
    Quote The EDL data NASA wants will be relayed back to Earth via NASA’s Mars orbiters, in real time as much as possible in case the landing ends badly. Details are still being worked out in regular meetings between company and agency engineers, but higher-bandwidth data recorded and relayed after a successful landing could include video of plume interactions with the atmosphere and the surface collected by onboard cameras and perhaps even one of the rovers. Quote SpaceX will decide what the payload will be, but NASA has already developed a list of instruments and other gear it would like to send to Mars, if the company can accommodate them in the 2018 window or later. Among them are Mars-weather sensors, instruments to analyze atmospheric dust, and experimental in situ resource utilization gear. I feel like this was missed in the current argument
  13. Rakaydos
    So appaently there's more information about the Red Dragon misssion, but it;'s behind a paywall. http://m.aviationweek.com/space/nasa-outlines-mars-red-dragon-deal-spacex From the L2 forum discussion, there's some talk about landing in an already explored area, possibly using an in-place rover to get additional information on the "L" in "EDL" Also interesting quotes: Quote In return, the Hawthorne, California-based company founded by entrepreneur Elon Musk will be able to: use the Deep Space Network for tracking and communications on the “Red Dragon” mission; touch down on the surface of Mars using landing-site data collected by NASA spacecraft; apply technical advice from NASA experts to a range of mission issues; and learn how to abide by international planetary-protection protocols. Quote The EDL data NASA wants will be relayed back to Earth via NASA’s Mars orbiters, in real time as much as possible in case the landing ends badly. Details are still being worked out in regular meetings between company and agency engineers, but higher-bandwidth data recorded and relayed after a successful landing could include video of plume interactions with the atmosphere and the surface collected by onboard cameras and perhaps even one of the rovers. Quote SpaceX will decide what the payload will be, but NASA has already developed a list of instruments and other gear it would like to send to Mars, if the company can accommodate them in the 2018 window or later. Among them are Mars-weather sensors, instruments to analyze atmospheric dust, and experimental in situ resource utilization gear.
  14. Rakaydos
    Nope- All I got is what you see in that link.
  15. Rakaydos
    Are they? Best estimate is that Dragon v2 carries 400-500m/s of DV, so the landing attempt cant be any harder than that, after aerobreaking. Plugging the falcon 9 dry stats into Wolfram alpha give a terminal velocity of 410 m/s. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Terminal+velocity+3.349+m^2&rawformassumption={%22F%22,+%22TimeToFall%22,+%22h%22}+-%3E%226000+ft%22&rawformassumption={%22F%22,+%22TimeToFall%22,+%22H%22}+-%3E%2210000+ft%22&rawformassumption={%22F%22,+%22TimeToFall%22,+%22rho%22}+-%3E%221.29+kg%2Fm^3%22&rawformassumption={%22F%22,+%22TimeToFall%22,+%22m%22}+-%3E%2228000+kg%22&rawformassumption={%22F%22,+%22TimeToFall%22,+%22Cd%22}+-%3E%221%22&rawformassumption={%22MC%22,%22%22}-%3E{%22Formula%22}
  16. Rakaydos
    Good thing they dont land boosters sideways anymore. And a Dragon capsule is smaller, more responsive, and has a more stable center ov gravity. I dont think landing them in proximity from one another is going to be terribly difficult.
  17. Rakaydos
    I would expect that a lander dragonlab would be more interesting than simply an orbital one. but hey, anything's better than zero.
  18. Rakaydos
    Keep in mind, this is the company that hit a football field sized target with a statue of libery sized rocket, from space, on the first try, with locked-up maneuvering fins. (it exploded because it landed almost sideways, but they still hit the target) assuming for a moment that 100 yards = 100m (close enough for ballpark estimate), and you need as much safty room to land a dragon on mars as a falcon core on earth, (which is blatabtly over-compensating) thats still a 10x10 grid of Dragons in a single square KM A car doesnt fly. A Dragon is already designed to land using a technique that works on low-air bodies. You dont take a refrigerator truck to go grocery shopping, or a city bus to take the kids to school. You use the car you have, install car seats, pull out/fold away the back seat to fit that awkward piece of furnature you bought, and tie the christmas tree to the roofracks.
  19. Rakaydos
    If SpaceX demostrates mars landing capability with Drag2, any mars mission of 2 tons or less will be designed around a disposable Drag2. It wont get any benifits from reuse, but they wont have to rebult the tools to build the tools every time.
  20. Rakaydos
    If we are presuming the MAV is delivered by SLS , then NASA would be footing the bill for presupply. The question for SpaceX then would be if spaceX would save more with an R+D program for a dedicated mars lander and mass produce that, or simply mass produce their "proven" (after 2018) Red Dragon design. In general, it seems R&D is expensive. If Red Dragon is "good enough", they might stick with it instead of going back to the drawing board.
  21. Rakaydos
    Red Dragon isnt a manned mission- but it can be a pre-supply probe for one. Say SpaceX clears the entire mars window of commercial launches, on both the bo chika and florida pads, and that they have cores lined up for launching on a weekly tempo from each pad. (certantly not in 2018, but 2026, perhaps.). Over a 2 month launch window, they put 16 Red Dragons onto mars intercept orbits, for 32+ tons of supplies, as well as a number of livable pressure vessels. Send a MAV on one SLS, and a MDV on another, and you should have a decent manned mission every 4 years.
  22. Rakaydos
    A single university isnt going to pay to put 20 tons into orbit. But each of 50 state university programs can pitch in $800,000, and split 400kg each in a big multilaunch. And thats assuming no educational discount.
  23. Rakaydos
    I think the best near-term market increase for price increase is university STEM departments. Even if it's a special educational discount limited to cheap, unrefurbished (and unreliable) relaunched boosters, a satelite launched per semester pushes student investment/interest, which will pay off for spaceX when those university students graduate into the aerospace field.
  24. Rakaydos
    Good thing SpaceX is aiming to reuse engines AND tanks. Not just engines like ULA. Edit: And for Red MArs specifically, they're probably going to use cores that have already paid for themselves- "Factory Certified Pre-flown cores" with the refurbishment cost included in the launch pricings, so SpaceX can throw them away for whatever.
  25. Rakaydos
    Apparently is IS cheap, if you build it in-house, ship it by truck or company( instead of chartered) barge, and build enough of them.
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