The second space race? Is private vs government vs international in our future?

[MajorLeaugeRocketScience]

I know all of you wonder silently, "What if SLS is cancelled? What if NASA gets shut down? What will happen?" And you hope against hope that won't happen. But, is there an alternative? The answer is yes, yes there is one, one that the government wants us not to see. In fact, there are quite a few alternatives.

Backup plan 1: Go crying to the Russians.

Yes, this is one of the ones Congress is hiding. But the russians make good rockets, big ones at that.Ever heard of the N-1? But in all seriousness, they have a launcher that could revolutionize history. Its known as Energy, or Energia.

This thing only has 2 launches, but was planned for much more. Least powerful variant, 60 tons. Most powerful 140. Also, fully reusable variant!! Take a look.

Back up plan 2: SpaceX hype.

This one I'm behind. This involves using a giant cousin of the Falcon 9 in the form of the Falcon XX Heavy. This thing means buisness. It can carry a fully fulled Falcon 9 to Mars AND BACK. And, it not only has the capacity, Its fairing is 200 feet tall.

Back up plan 3: Go to the home of rockets.

This is the one that congress wont even let articles on the internet pass over, i might get arrested just for saying this:D: Go ask the chinese for help. They are about to make something the size of the SLS. Its called Long March 9, or in Chinese CZ-9. This thing is pretty sweet, and according to Andy Weir it is probably the chinese heavy lift rocket in the Martian. This thing is massive.

It might not seem like a good idea, but they already invited nasa to come abroad their station and in their fly by

Edited September 10, 2015 by MajorLeaugeRocketScience

[Requia]

Private sector fund communications satellites and nothing else. Maybe we get some asteroid captures going forward if that turns out profitable, everything else is just a high risk bid for government money.

[MajorLeaugeRocketScience]

You do realize that SpaceX is putting humans in space in 2017, right? And they already sent a capsule to the ISS?

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They sent the first capsule up ON THEIR OWN MONEY

[Nibb31]

1) Energia is dead and buried 30 years ago. Bringing it back is as impossible as bringing back the Saturn V. You would have to start from scratch.

2) The private sector only exists because the government is paying the bills. Even if they manage to somehow monetize space activity, they can't survive without the multi-billion dollar NASA and DoD contracts.

[MajorLeaugeRocketScience]

Energia? Dead? HA!! The only thing that's dead is a visionary!! One man can start anything they put their mind to. The V-2 started the space race, right? Who started the V-2? Wherner von Braun. The man behind the moon

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BTW could I get some positive feedback on any of this? The word impossible​ doesn't exist in science.

[Nibb31]

Actually it does.

You simply can't restart production of a 30 year old design, based on paper drawings, outdated manufacturing techniques, materials that no longer exist, tooling that has been scrapped, facilities that have crumbled, and suppliers that have disappeared.

You would need to redesign each part with modern CAD/CAM tools, recertify them with modern standards, and rebuild the tooling, test fixtures, and supply chain, requalify suppliers, build new buildings and launch pads, etc...

You would be better off starting from scratch.

Claiming that Russia has Energia and Buran is as silly as claiming that NASA still has Apollo.

The V2 didn't start the Space Race, and neither did Von Braun. It was a product of the Cold War. The Space Race started with Sputnik.

Edited September 5, 2015 by Nibb31

[Requia]

You do realize that SpaceX is putting humans in space in 2017, right? And they already sent a capsule to the ISS?

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They sent the first capsule up ON THEIR OWN MONEY

nnoooope. NASA and SpaceX have a 1.6 billion dollar contract for those flights. Payload is absurdly small too, though I suppose being pressurized and climate controlled on the way makes up for it a bit.

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2012/oct/HQ_12-355_SpaceX_CRS-1_Launch.html

[MajorLeaugeRocketScience]

No i meant the very first one, the one with no cargo that just proved they could do it. And please, lets get on topic

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Actually it does.

You simply can't restart production of a 30 year old design, based on paper drawings, outdated manufacturing techniques, materials that no longer exist, tooling that has been scrapped, facilities that have crumbled, and suppliers that have disappeared.

You would need to redesign each part with modern CAD/CAM tools, recertify them with modern standards, and rebuild the tooling, test fixtures, and supply chain, requalify suppliers, build new buildings and launch pads, etc...

You would be better off starting from scratch.

Claiming that Russia has Energia and Buran is as silly as claiming that NASA still has Apollo.

The V2 didn't start the Space Race, and neither did Von Braun. It was a product of the Cold War. The Space Race started with Sputnik.

And what was Sputnik based off of? The V-2. And what where all of the ICBMS based off of? the V-2

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Do you all at least get my point?

[UmbralRaptor]

There is more to NASA than crewed spaceflight and designing launch systems. While the commercial cargo and crew systems have been nifty, there is a very real risk that they'll vanish when the ISS is deorbited.

BTW could I get some positive feedback on any of this? The word impossible​ doesn't exist in science.

STS, Buran, Delta III, Commercial Titan, Klipper, X-33/Venturestar, Darkhorse, X-34, Constellation/Ares, Kistler...

At least cool things are happening with NASA et al.'s telescopes and probes.

edit:

The V-2 started the space race, right? Who started the V-2? Wherner von Braun.

Walter Dornberger and a (German) government program that cost double the Manhattan Project are also important bits. VfR sort of ran out of money well before they got to anything V-2 sized. Edited September 5, 2015 by UmbralRaptor

[Nibb31]

The R-7 really didn't have anything in common with the V-2. And before Sputnik, there was no such thing as a Space Race.

Edited September 5, 2015 by Nibb31

[fredinno]

Neither option will happen due to politics. Russia is self-explanatory, and SpaceX... no, not happening. Elon does not pay bribes to congressmen.

The more likely scenario if SLS is cancelled is that NASA decides to build a new, reusable launch system, or decides to work on another HLV, like a Vulcan Heavy variant.

[Requia]

I would in all honesty consider the Ares V to have been a resurrected Saturn V with boosters strapped on. Not that we went that route, but it would have had the same basic structure, modernized variants of the same engines, etc. So I don't know that its impossible (I don't know enough about the Russian industry to be sure it's possible either). But on the other hand why would you seriously want to do that? the cost didn't work out, and with the ISS we don't need regular manned flights anyway, we can do months worth of work on a single flight. If you just want the cargo configuration... well that's basically SLS. I mean its the same thing, they just had the foresight to realize their shuttle tech could be reconfigured to a superheavy launcher, instead of waiting for the whole thing to shut down to try it.

[_Augustus_]

Energia could probably be brought back as an international project, Zenit is still in production and RD-0120 could probably be replaced.

[MajorLeaugeRocketScience]

Can I do a quick poll: do you want another space race or not?

[Requia]

Why? We've got a more realistic possibility of doing both a manned mars mission and much more in depth outer system robotic missions on the path we're on now, we just don't get to have them for a couple decades. More importantly we'll maintain that capability. No more 3 billion dollar rockets that never fly again after the race is over.

[UmbralRaptor]

Can I do a quick poll: do you want another space race or not?

Another space race risks ending like the first; a handful missions that are primarily flags and footprints, and the hardware thrown away. I would much prefer a path that leads to cheap and reliable access to space. Failing that, a long term science program that steadily builds on its successes within the budget and launcher limitations.

[Robotengineer]

Another space race risks ending like the first; a handful missions that are primarily flags and footprints, and the hardware thrown away. I would much prefer a path that leads to cheap and reliable access to space. Failing that, a long term science program that steadily builds on its successes within the budget and launcher limitations.

A long term science program is basically what we have already.

[ChrisSpace]

I know all of you wonder silently, "What if SLS is cancelled? What if NASA gets shut down? What will happen?" And you hope against hope that won't happen. But, is there an alternative? The answer is yes, yes there is one, one that the government wants us not to see. In fact, there are quite a few alternatives.

Backup plan 1: Go crying to the Russians.

Yes, this is one of the ones Congress is hiding. But the russians make good rockets, big ones at that.Ever heard of the N-1? But in all seriousness, they have a launcher that could revolutionize history. Its known as Energy, or Energia.

This thing only has 2 launches, but was planned for much more. Least powerful variant, 60 tons. Most powerful 140. Also, fully reusable variant!! Take a look. [spoiler: Energia]

Back up plan 2: SpaceX hype.

This one I'm behind. This involves using a giant cousin of the Falcon 9 in the form of the Falcon XX Heavy. This thing means buisness. It can carry a fully fulled Falcon 9 to Mars AND BACK. And, it not only has the capacity, Its fairing is 200 feet tall. [spoiler: Cool Image]

Back up plan 3: Go to the home of rockets.

This is the one that congress wont even let articles on the internet pass over, i might get arrested just for saying this:D: Go ask the chinese for help. They are about to make something the size of the SLS. Its called Long March 9, or in Chinese CZ-9. This thing is pretty sweet, and according to Andy Weir it is probably the chinese heavy lift rocket in the Martian. This thing is massive. [spoiler: Giant rocket]

NASA's era of greatness is ending, so let's look at the other options:

1. As cute as this idea is, Russia is simply unable to develop large rocket systems with its failing economy and internal unrest. If things improve there, which they could, then perhaps this could be a good option.

2. I'm definitely going for SpaceX here. Once they develop full reusability, launch costs will be tenth-ed and space will be more accessible than ever. Let's just hope they succeed with this.

3. A very good option if it wasn't for a complete lack of cooperation due to political disagreements. China's economy could go either way, so it's hard to say how good an option they will be in the coming years and decades. But I like this idea.

Also, a few backup plans you missed:

4. Orbital Sciences Corporation. Similar to SpaceX only less developed. They might be a good option further down the track.

5. The ESA. Right now it's facing the same problems as NASA, and it is being run by a loosely held together group of countries, so no.

6. India. Similar to China except less developed, but without as many political issues. Economically India is almost certain to keep on growing for decades to come, so I like this option.

7. Japan. Too many internal problems to focus on space, so no.

8. Virgin Galactic. They currently say they can get lunar tourism and transportation up by 2043, but their success rate says otherwise.

Can I do a quick poll: do you want another space race or not?

YESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYES. Just so long at it doesn't all get scrapped like the Apollo program.

[Yukon0009]

I'm putting my money on SpaceX and the Chinese. Hell, I didn't know CZ-9 was that big.

[MajorLeaugeRocketScience]

Yeah the cz-9 is a beast. If only we could cooperate with the Chinese...