SpaceX BFR / MCT Discussion Thread

[B787_300]

Also I moved this stuff to a new thread as it does not belong in the re usability thread

[Mitchz95]

I'm not entirely savvy when it comes to the specifics of rocket construction, but this seems a little overkill for any conventional spaceship. 100 metric tonnes to Mars ... holy crap. Can't wait to see what they have planned for the MCT itself!

[Rakaydos]

According to Wolfram Alpha, comparisons to 100 metric tons nclude the cargo capacity of a 747-200f aircraft. (105 short tons)

Googling that designation gives this as the first image:

 

[B787_300]

6 minutes ago, Rakaydos said:

According to Wolfram Alpha, comparisons to 100 metric tons nclude the cargo capacity of a 747-200f aircraft. (105 short tons)

Googling that designation gives this as the first image:

 

Meh the plane and the capacity are not the same thing... a better comparison would be a solid pure gold cube that is 1.73 m on a side.  Or if you want water it would be a cube with a dimension of 4.642 m.

[Rakaydos]

7 minutes ago, B787_300 said:

Meh the plane and the capacity are not the same thing... a better comparison would be a solid pure gold cube that is 1.73 m on a side.  Or if you want water it would be a cube with a dimension of 4.642 m.

Well, consider that the BFR is suposed to bring 100 passangers to mars, inside that 100 tons of capacity to mars surface. The same model aircraft configured for passangers has carried 450 to 550 seats. Giving each passanger the volume equivilant to 6 coach aircraft seats to live in for a 6 month trip to mars seems a little small- it seems likely that the BFR's cabin is even larger than that plane.

[fredinno]

18 hours ago, Kryten said:

Two things;

1) The only reason the information even exists on the forum is because it's a trusted, private venue. If a newspaper printed quotes from someone who'd been told they're off the record that could be illegal depending on jurisdiction, and unquestionably unethical anywhere

2) This material being on the forum places squad at risk of getting a takedown notice at the very least. You're not being a brave scout in defense of freedom, you're placing a company in the line of legal issues because you want a little extra rumoured stuff about your favourite megalomaniacal billionaire. It's not remotely in the public interest.

The fact that it's based on nothing more than libertarian BS about the potential of the frontier? It's all buzzwords, dig a little deeper and there's nothing there. Why would somebody pay millions of pounds so that they can go to Mars and scrub the floors? Spirit-of-individualism, no-such-thing-as-society, opportunity-to-be-the-first-janitor-on-mars yadda yadda yadda.

The fact that it's based on nothing more than libertarian BS about the potential of the frontier? It's all buzzwords, dig a little deeper and there's nothing there. Why would somebody pay millions of pounds so that they can go to Mars and scrub the floors? Spirit-of-individualism, no-such-thing-as-society, opportunity-to-be-the-first-janitor-on-mars yadda yadda yadda.

Plenty of people are willing- just look at how many people sign up to be NASA Astronauts. Only 6 positions were available, only for over 6000 to sign up to want to go. If it is a viable scheme, (not Mars One), many people will decide to go. If they are qualified is another story.

1 hour ago, Mitchz95 said:

I'm not entirely savvy when it comes to the specifics of rocket construction, but this seems a little overkill for any conventional spaceship. 100 metric tonnes to Mars ... holy crap. Can't wait to see what they have planned for the MCT itself!

This is what happens when Elon Musk played KSP, and decided to add Moar Boosters.

24 minutes ago, Rakaydos said:

Well, consider that the BFR is suposed to bring 100 passangers to mars, inside that 100 tons of capacity to mars surface. The same model aircraft configured for passangers has carried 450 to 550 seats. Giving each passanger the volume equivilant to 6 coach aircraft seats to live in for a 6 month trip to mars seems a little small- it seems likely that the BFR's cabin is even larger than that plane.

Yeah, I think NASA standards would want that to be 40 people instead.

Overall thiough, I am sceptical. How in the #### is Elon about to finance this?

[sojourner]

Personally, I think having 100 people in a small confined space like that for +6 months is a recipe for conflict. MCT sounds fine for take off/landing, but the actually trip needs more habitable volume for that number of people.

[fredinno]

21 minutes ago, sojourner said:

Personally, I think having 100 people in a small confined space like that for +6 months is a recipe for conflict. MCT sounds fine for take off/landing, but the actually trip needs more habitable volume for that number of people.

Exactly,if NASA was doing this, it'd be w/ 40 people or less, not 100.

[Nibb31]

2 hours ago, fredinno said:

Overall thiough, I am sceptical. How in the #### is Elon about to finance this?

He wants people to pay $500.000 for a one-way ticket. That's $50 000 000 for a 100 passenger launch. I believe that's wildly optimistic, but that's his plan.

The problem is that if you have that sort of money, it's not very likely that you have anything to gain by emigrating to Mars to become a janitor or a cook. The intersection of:

• people who are rich enough to buy the ticket, and
• people who are desperate enough that living on mars represents a better life for them, and
• people who have useful skills to establish a viable colony

isn't big enough to make a sustainable business model, IMO.

That's all assuming that we can actually live, reproduce, and develop normally on Mars, which is decades away in terms of biological research.

The whole colony thing is where Musk's plans break down. He is a billionnaire, but he isn't that rich. His fortune is "only" 12 billion, which is actually less than NASA's annual budget (not a good comparison of course, but just to show the order of magnitude). You can't just spend away that kind of money without expecting a return on investment. Also, most of that money is actually tied up in his companies. He can't sell his shares, or their value will collapse. So like most billionnaires, he borrows money for his day-to-day expenses and investments. Finally, those businesses aren't that successful anyway.

He has revolutionized the orbital launch industry by cutting prices by 50%. I don't think there is much more to gain at this stage through reusability, because SpaceX is already pretty much as lean as it can be, but I wish him well. However, he is certainly not immune to failure, and the colony stuff is simply an unrealistic bridge to nowhere. He certainly won't be the first billionnaire visionnary to be wrong...

Edited December 14, 2015 by Nibb31

[fredinno]

2 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

He wants people to pay $500.000 for a one-way ticket.

The problem is that if you have that sort of money, it's not very likely that you have anything to gain by emigrating to Mars to become a janitor or a cook. The intersection of:

• people who are rich enough to buy the ticket, and
• people who are desperate enough that living on mars represents a better life for them, and
• people who have useful skills to establish a viable colony

isn't big enough to make a sustainable business model, IMO.

That's all assuming that we can actually live, reproduce, and develop normally on Mars, which is decades away in terms of biological research.

The whole colony thing is where Musk's plans break down. He is a billionnaire, but he isn't that rich. His fortune is "only" 12 billion, which is actually less than NASA's annual budget (not a good comparison of course, but just to show the order of magnitude). You can't just spend away that kind of money without expecting a return on investment. Also, most of that money is actually tied up in his companies. He can't sell his shares, or their value will collapse. So like most billionnaires, he borrows money for his day-to-day expenses and investments. Finally, those businesses aren't that successful anyway.

He has revolutionized the orbital launch industry by cutting prices by 50%. I don't think there is much more to gain at this stage through reusability, because SpaceX is already pretty much as lean as it can be, but I wish him well. However, he is certainly not immune to failure, and the colony stuff is simply an unrealistic bridge to nowhere. He certainly won't be the first billionnaire visionnary to be wrong...

Like Andrew Beal of Beal Aerospace?

[Nibb31]

Just now, fredinno said:

Like Andrew Beal of Beal Aerospace?

Like Howard Hughes, or more recently like Branson and Paul Allen 

[Frozen_Heart]

I agree with Nibb here as I just don't see how this can be funded. $50 million per flight is no where close enough for such a monster spacecraft, and the payload just isn't big enough to fit so many comfortably for so long. Though the fact that on orbit refuelling is planning suggests that it may be launched empty.

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, Nibb31 said:

Like Howard Hughes, or more recently like Branson and Paul Allen 

I wouldn't say the former- the manganese nodules were a cover story to retrieve a sunk Soviet sub.

[Nibb31]

7 minutes ago, fredinno said:

I wouldn't say the former- the manganese nodules were a cover story to retrieve a sunk Soviet sub.

I was referring to the Spruce Goose.

[Delta_8930]

Back in 0.90 Laztech's SpaceX mod had a MCT. It looked like a enlarged F9 powered by 9 raptors on the first stage and a Raptor Vacuum on the second stage

[Streetwind]

6 hours ago, sojourner said:

Personally, I think having 100 people in a small confined space like that for +6 months is a recipe for conflict. MCT sounds fine for take off/landing, but the actually trip needs more habitable volume for that number of people.

That's my take on it as well, yes. the key thing to keep in mind is that the habitable volume doesn't need to land on Mars.

The landing unit could pack 100 people as tightly as a commercial airplane just fine, leaving the larger habitat in orbit until the return flight is scheduled.

 

3 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

He wants people to pay $500.000 for a one-way ticket. That's $50 000 000 for a 100 passenger launch. I believe that's wildly optimistic, but that's his plan.

That's wildly  optimistic because that's his plan for "when MCT flies regularly, after the colony has been fully established... maybe in 25 years or so". In the near-term, prices will be much higher. Perhaps ten times as high.

Which doesn't necessarily make the target audience any bigger, yes

But considering Mars One was able to amass a five-digit number of applicants willing to go on a one-way trip, I have a feeling that SpaceX will be able to fill at least a handfull of MCTs. You would be surprised how many people can scrounge up a million bucks if they literally sell everything they own but the clothes on their back. This isn't an offer for rich people to pay from their vacationing fund; this is an offer for people who completely liquidate their Earth-based existence and leave for a long, long time. And even if they take SpaceX's offer of "the spacecraft needs to come home anyway, so the return ticket is free", then they will be able to finance a new life just from selling their story to the media.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Streetwind

[Rakaydos]

1 hour ago, Streetwind said:

That's my take on it as well, yes. the key thing to keep in mind is that the habitable volume doesn't need to land on Mars.

The landing unit could pack 100 people as tightly as a commercial airplane just fine, leaving the larger habitat in orbit until the return flight is scheduled.

So then, perhaps 1/5 of that airplane earlier is lander seating, 3/5 is a compressed Bigalo Space Habitat (they've got a contract with bigalo, right?) and 1/5 is additional support equipment to feed and aerate 100 highly paid specialists.

[Nibb31]

2 hours ago, Streetwind said:

But considering Mars One was able to amass a five-digit number of applicants willing to go on a one-way trip, I have a feeling that SpaceX will be able to fill at least a handfull of MCTs. You would be surprised how many people can scrounge up a million bucks if they literally sell everything they own but the clothes on their back. This isn't an offer for rich people to pay from their vacationing fund; this is an offer for people who completely liquidate their Earth-based existence and leave for a long, long time. And even if they take SpaceX's offer of "the spacecraft needs to come home anyway, so the return ticket is free", then they will be able to finance a new life just from selling their story to the media.

Again, Mars One applicants didn't have to pay for their ticket. Most of them were young dreamers who had no knowledge of what living on Mars would actually be like. I doubt many of them could actually scrounge up a million bucks. 

People who want to emigrate usually do so because of promises of a better life, either because their life is crappy, or because they (very wrongly) think that the grass is greener elsewhere. People who have million dollar homes to sell typically aren't persecuted outcasts with no job, no friends or relatives and a bleak future. In general, if you have that sort of estate, you are also a pretty well-established member of society with a lot more to lose than to gain.  

 

[Mazon Del]

Really it does depend on how much of a long game the person in question wants to play.

Sure, if they play their cards right they can live in comfort with their million(s) and maybe even finance a good start or comfortable life for their next generation. Beyond that it all gets terribly iffy. If you were to go to Mars, there isn't a terribly large presence there to tell you what to do and how to do it, so if you were to attempt to set up your family as owning a randomly sizable chunk of land near-ish the main colony site, you could end up as a Duke of Mars if you play your cards right. Not terribly useful for you, given the hard work and effort you'd have to put in while under VERY dangerous conditions, but maybe 2-300 years later your family remains one of the ruling members.

[Mitchz95]

I can definitely see the appeal starting a new life on Mars would have, even for the super-rich. The chance to be a part of something new and exciting like that would be a powerful temptation for many, especially those who have more cash than they know what to do with.

[FishInferno]

This, my friends, is how you go to Mars.

 

NOTE: Non-Official based on the leaked information, made by a reddit user

[Nothalogh]

3 hours ago, FishInferno said:

This, my friends, is how you go to Mars.

 

NOTE: Non-Official based on the leaked information, made by a reddit user

We'll have Sea Dragon flying before this is over

[Findthepin1]

Didn't Elon musk say the MCT plans would be released by the end of the year? He has under a month. 

[Nibb31]

Those were the plans before CRS-7. At this point, it would be bad taste to announce a grandiose plan before RTF. You don't announce an overambitious mega-project when you're still recovering from a failure. 

My guess is that he will probably even wait until after a successful CRS-8, so that he's back on track with NASA supply runs first.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Nibb31

[Magion]

From the Gentlemen's Quarterly's interview with Elon published 3 days ago:

Quote

Musk has previously said that he would publicly present some specifics of his Mars-colonization plans later this year, though he tells me that it may now be early next year. "Before we announce it, I want to make sure that we're not gonna make really big changes to it," he says. "Um, yeah. I think it's gonna seem pretty crazy, no matter what."

Edited December 15, 2015 by Magion