PB666 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 (edited) NOTE: This post is not about global warming per say its about an unprecedented climate anomaly that occurred in 2015-2016 and about its future. Please respect the intent of the thread and do not drive this again into politics. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/april-2016-earths-12th-consecutive-warmest-month-on-record This blog is basically recapitulating my previous thread OP with details and predictions from NOAA. Quote El Niño on its way out El Niño conditions weakened to the "moderate" classification during April 2016, and El Niño continues to weaken rapidly. The event peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W) peaked at a record 3.1°C above normal. By the week of May 16, 2016, the Niño3.4 SST anomaly had fallen to 0.6°C above average--barely above the 0.5°C threshold to be considered an El Niño. NOAA expects a transition to neutral conditions during early summer 2016, with a 65% chance of a transition to La Niña conditions by the August-September-October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. - https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/april-2016-earths-12th-consecutive-warmest-month-on-record The problem is that they actually previously predicted its decline last fall that we would be neutral by the spring, Obviously we aren't, its May and El-nino rains, the most severe that I have seen, so I think that the call of el-Nino is not as fast and the la-Nina may not develope as quickly. As El-Nino suggests decline, we have in the last month had two decadal floods, this follows a decadal flood we had last year (2 depending on the area) and expect another event of sorts today. "When it rains it rains, but when it really rains, its El Nino." If you scroll down the page you can see GOES of my state, Im in the area that has not yet been hit. Note the cloud coverage over the entire state including over Big Bend region areas of which get less than 8 inches of rain per year. The recent floods we have had are not the typical flood systems that fill up one or two major river systems. We have events that filled rivers from the Guadalupe river all the way to the Calcasieu river in Louisiana, not within a protracted event but as a single contemporary system. Edited May 19, 2016 by PB666 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordFerret Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 (edited) EDIT: NEVER MIND, THE LINK DECIDED TO WORK. (go figure) Your link isn't working here. Quote Secure Connection Failed The connection to www.wunderground.com was interrupted while the page was loading. The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because the authenticity of the received data could not be verified. Please contact the website owners to inform them of this problem. Edited May 19, 2016 by LordFerret 3rd time's a charm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotius Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Is that bad that it rains? I heard west states were under heavy drought, and El Nino rains reverted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB666 Posted May 19, 2016 Author Share Posted May 19, 2016 44 minutes ago, Scotius said: Is that bad that it rains? I heard west states were under heavy drought, and El Nino rains reverted this. I hope they do get some, but we been getting it here. I have more cloud volume over my house than they have in the whole State of California at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relin Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 56 minutes ago, Scotius said: Is that bad that it rains? I heard west states were under heavy drought, and El Nino rains reverted this. It was a good year for rain, but a single year of slightly-above-average rainfall cannot reverse a drought of this severity. Maybe if El Nino stuck around for a few more years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB666 Posted May 19, 2016 Author Share Posted May 19, 2016 6 minutes ago, relin said: It was a good year for rain, but a single year of slightly-above-average rainfall cannot reverse a drought of this severity. Maybe if El Nino stuck around for a few more years... You can have it, it will wash fresh the bays for the next 2 months just because of lag effects, I won't be porting anytime soon, less I go visit SpaceX BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ten Key Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 2 hours ago, Scotius said: Is that bad that it rains? I heard west states were under heavy drought, and El Nino rains reverted this. The problem is our reservoirs aren't always able to handle that much water that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Findthepin1 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Ten Key said: The problem is our reservoirs aren't always able to handle that much water that fast. Then they will overflow. The rivers will flow more. In a drought, that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Phil Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Climate change has everywhere's climate changing. Or, at least most places. Global warming is inaccurate, certain areas will cool, others will warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB666 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36339523 Clearly, its not near to being over. At least for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB666 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201604 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2016/4/supplemental/page-2 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/soi/ http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/ here's a publication that may help explain how it git started. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069204/full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gojira1000 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Respectfully, "climate change" is a scientific observation, it's been hijacked to be a "political issue" by people who don't understand it, or stand to benefit from their politicization of it (pro or con). If you're going to discuss local anomalous weather events without attempting to factor in systemic changes, your methodology is flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DuoDex Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Thread locked. Please avoid political discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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