Sunspot 1520 waking up from its sleep with a massive solar flare

[Rascal Nag]

GOES 6-hour X-ray flux 1 minute data reports that at its peak, the flare was classed as an X1.4. While not too far into the X territory, the X-ray flux remained in the X-class territory for about half an hour, and still is only slowly descending through the M class territory. The NOAA Space Weather warnings event has put out an alert for a Type IV radio event, 'typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.' The current flux level is M6.1, and while not as strong as the peak, it is still a formidable flare.

Sunspot 1520 has not made much noise in the recent days despite holding a Beta-Gamma-Delta class magnetic field, the most complex and energetic of the classes. It is also quite large, and very close to other sunspot groups such as 1519 and 1521, further contributing to the magnetic complexity of the group. Whether this is a let-off of much pent up energy and as a result an isolated event is not certain. It could signal an increase in activity. If this is the case, we are very far from being out of the woods - Sunspot 1520 is situated only a bit south of the center of the solar disc, and it will take a few days before it rotates out of view. For now, it is aiming directly at us. Furthermore, sunspot 1521 has shown fairly rapid growth and magnetic development, now a beta-gamma class sunspot. This is the second most complex and energetic level, the one right before BGD (beta-gamma-delta). It is very, very close to 1520, though a bit further along the disc. If it reaches BGD, it and 1520 would make a very dangerous pair. They certainly have time to make this occur.

Be on the lookout for more flares, I have a feeling that 1520 is not done yet. They will surely be geoeffective if more occur, just like this one will be. Be on the lookout for auroras as well if you are in high latitudes and maybe even lower. The Bz component of the magnetic field at the moment is 2.2 nT north, making it a fairly routine situation, but if it does turn south then the magnetosphere would essentially open up a hole for the CME, allowing much greater auroras as well as power issues to be seen.

Edit:

X-Ray flux, 6 hour graph, updated every minute:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

Space Weather Warnings Center:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

The flare (Just below the center, the bright spot)

Sunspots 1520 and 1521:

[Lord Wasteland]

So estimated latitude?

[Rascal Nag]

I have not seen any data yet for the latitudes of the auroras. It may take longer to obtain that, and there is also the fact that, with strong flares, the CME can reach Earth very quickly, and so any data may be last minute. Finally, strong CMEs may also contaminate the sensors of the probes which measure the solar wind, making predictions inaccurate. Based on previous X flares, a normal X1.4 would likely send the Auroras down to the Northern US states, but one which is this long-lasting may bring them down further. It\'s hard to pinpoint how it will turn out.

Here is more data, depicting which areas will absorb the most protons:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/global.html

As of 18:00 UTC, the Western Hemisphere, Mainly Central America, the US and Canada, are lit up.

[Lord Wasteland]

Good to know. Right in the center of it.

[Charzy]

Will the auroras only be visible in the red bits? I\'m right on the border between the Green and Cyan.

[Rascal Nag]

That picture is not representative of where auroras will be, only the absorption of protons. There is no prediction for the auroral oval as of yet, at least that I know of.

[Rascal Nag]

X-ray flux is starting to level out - putting the background flux in M territory. The flux is still dropping, but much slower now. This event has been going on for 4 hours now: 14:50 UT to 18:50 UT.

I personally would not be surprised if it starts it pull back up soon, but I guess it could just as likely retain this pace all the way down to normal levels.

[Rascal Nag]

UPDATE: A forecast has been put out for the Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare.

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

Personal note: My goodness.

[Accelerando]

Will this make my garage door start opening and closing on its own? I\'m unclear on exactly how the magnitude of a CME relates to electronics disruptions on Earth.

[Rascal Nag]

That I\'m not sure of. I don\'t think an X1.4 flare and the resulting CME would be able to do THAT much to electronics, but we\'ll have to wait and see. Like I said, many predictions will have to wait until the last minute.

More updates from NASA\'s Goddard Space Weather Center:

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC )

## Message Type: Space Weather Alert

##

## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-12T21:00:00Z

## Message ID: 20120712-AL-006

## Alert Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2012-07-12T16:54:00-CME-001 (see alert 20120712-AL-005). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth, Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2012-07-14T10:20Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).

Simulations also indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach (plus minus 7 hours):

Messenger: 2012-07-13T10:04Z

Earth: 2012-07-14T10:20Z

Spitzer: 2012-07-14T13:56Z

MSL: 2012-07-15T22:14Z

Mars: 2012-07-16T00:55Z

[Rascal Nag]

1520 has been quiet since the eruption, but is still a significant threat for X flares. The smooth decline from the X1.4 level has ended, and now the X-ray flux is jumping all about between B-level and C-level. However, over the past few hours I\'m noticing a general trend of rising X-ray flux.

Here is the current graph, 1 minute data points:

It\'s harder to see the trend here, but it\'s there. See the following graph for a better view, using 5 minute data over a few days. I\'ve added my own line to highlight what I\'m referring to:

If you look at the background flux (not the actual C flares seen before the X one, I\'m referring to the mostly flat areas with very small mountains that would constitute the background), you can see it had been diving into the B range, with actual flares happening along the way. You can also see the trend in the blue lines before the X flare. Now look at the time after the flare: We experienced a long decline, and then when we got into the background flux again, it started diving as well. Now it\'s slowly picking itself back up again. If this is like last time, it could pick itself right back up into a large flare. If it\'s not, well, that\'s it then. Nothing to worry about. But for now, it might be a good idea to monitor the flux to see if it moves into a more steady rise - when the previous X flare began, the rapid fluctuation came to a quick stop, and the lines became smooth. If we see that again, it could be a signal that we\'re starting round 2. In fact, right now there is a steady riser with little fluctuation beginning right as I\'m typing. It\'s getting quite smooth right as I speak. I\'ll continue monitoring it for now.

Edit: Here is an image of the graph, with the steady riser on the far right of the blue. Also, side note: The blue and red are the same, but the blue is more sensitive. The red is what is actually used to measure flares in their classes.

Edit: There seems to now be normal fluctuation going on, but it\'s still rising. For now though, with the renewed fluctuation, it appears it\'s not quite ready to go into a massive flare.

If you want to watch yourself, here\'s the NOAA graph, updating on 1 minute intervals. Watch the blue, the red isn\'t detailed enough to show the small rises that could lead to big flares.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

[NovaSilisko]

CME is currently impacting, here\'s the current auroral oval:

[Rascal Nag]

Well, last night it seemed like the whole aurora stuff was a bust...

BUT NOT TODAY! The auroral oval, as predicted by the geophysical institute, is HUGE right now.

The Bz component is also quite favorable for auroras, in that it\'s VERY far south and has been staying there for a looong time. You can see it here, the yellow line:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_2h.html

If this continues until tonight, be ready for a show!

Edit: NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST BY THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE

[mincespy]

So if I look up and north in Britain I can see the flare/aurora?

[Kryten]

Maybe. If it isn\'t massively light polluted where you are.

[mincespy]

Maybe. If it isn\'t massively light polluted where you are.

Well, I\'ll see what I can see...

[popeter123]

well from that new graph swansea(where i live)will see it and i will see it cos i live a mile away from anybody

[dogon11]

I won\'t see it, because I live in northern virginia... way too much light pollution.

[grawl]

So, did any of you saw the aurora?

[Rascal Nag]

I have not yet, due to extensive cloud cover at the moment. I\'m hoping that once it clears up a bit I\'ll get some nice views.

[Radion]

Reading this thread sounded like reading the manifesto of a 2012 disaster theory. However, I am saddened that I can\'t see the aurora from where I live. Ah well.

[Rascal Nag]

I try to make the descriptions sound as interesting as possible!

Anyway, it appears the storm may have abated for now, whether this is a sign of it ending or simply a lull period I\'m not sure of though.

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/SWMFpred.cgi

Though this model has not been updated in a few hours, it does seem like, at its last update, the magnetosphere was much less distorted than it had been earlier today. This makes me think that the storm may in fact be coming to a close, but again, I\'m not sure.

[Rascal Nag]

Long duration event in progress around 1520, X ray flux is at M1.5 and climbing. There was a large coronal mass ejection as the flare got under way see here:

At first glance it appears it is not heading towards us, but time will tell if we are magnetically connected enough that it would move more towards us. If you wish to see the current state of the flare, go here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

It seems like 1520 doesn\'t want to leave us without saying goodbye.