Satellite Suicide Mission

[Alshain]

7 minutes ago, Stargate525 said:

Let me rephrase. If any part of the orbit intersects with anywhere the SOI can be, there is a chance of deflection. It becomes less likely, but it is still non-zero.

Oh, yes I agree there, but in his image I do believe the Ap is outside the SOI of the Mun (at least it seems that way to me, without numbers I really can't know for certain).  So a slight inclination change would push the Pe out above or below the poles of the Mun and the Ap would mean you would never encounter it.

[magnemoe]

3 hours ago, Stargate525 said:

Let me rephrase. If any part of the orbit intersects with anywhere the SOI can be, there is a chance of deflection. It becomes less likely, but it is still non-zero.

Yes, you can sometimes find asteroids in Kerbin orbit, usually on inclined orbit and intercept Mun SOI. 
Mun captured them and the inclined orbit make an second intercept unlikely so they will stay for many months before getting an new intercept and get pushed out.