IAC Today!

[lajoswinkler]

What the hell is wrong with the people asking questions? Random trolls or true nutters?

[StarStreak2109]

A little of both I guess!

[Nefrums]

1 minute ago, lajoswinkler said:

What the hell is wrong with the people asking questions? Random trolls or true nutters?

space nuts!

[Mad Rocket Scientist]

Wooo!  That was amazing!

I love how straight the talk is.  Saying that it is likely that you will die on the first trips, saying that he thought that the first test of the raptor would blow up, I love it.

But what was up with the questions?  And how could someone ask if he wanted to be the first man on Mars after someone had already essentially asked that!

 

[Scotius]

My brain still fizzles First the awesomeness of the program, and then sheer idiocy of some of the questions... "Poop storm" - indeed.

[Emperor of the Titan Squid]

29 minutes ago, kunok said:

That didn't appear at all in the video, and IIRC that would be a a huge system outside the spacecraft

Yes, he said that. But I think he meant to do it eventually, and he plans to use spacecraft mass as shielding. On Mars, the radiation problem will be ignored, as it should be. What are they using for the spaceship's heat shield?

[Nibb31]

So much wasted time on stupid questions.

Not many details on ECLSS or simply keeping people alive. I would have like to see more technical detail on docking systems, or cargo unloading systems. That huge window seems like a recipe for disaster (compare the design to the ISS Cupola for example). So does the booster landing in the launch stand. A slight gust of wind or a mismatch and there goes your rocket and your launch pad. Also, I don't see how they can prevent damaging those huge nozzles with upshooting debris during landing, they look really close to the ground and really exposed.

But the biconic reentry thing is the scariest part for me. The only experiments closely related are a couple of subscale demonstrators (IXV...) that splashed down on parachutes when they ran out of lift, but translating from lifting body reentry to vertical landing on rocket engines has never been done. It has to work on Mars, but also on Earth, and with people on board. I predict a lot of broken carbon fiber before the bugs get ironed out of that.And then there is this whole colonization thing which, I think, is completely overblown hype. His whole plan relies on other people spending massive amounts of money to build and run a colony, for which there is no incentive or return on investment.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Nibb31

[RedKraken]

Good show. I hope it gets some airtime in the propaganda channels.

Well... i'm heading back to the VAB. Anyone want coffee?

Edited September 27, 2016 by RedKraken

[monstah]

5 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

And then there is this whole colonization thing which, I think, is completely overblown hype. His whole plan relies on other people spending massive amounts of money to build and run a colony, for which there is no incentive or return on investment.

This I see as a problem too. Historically, people had incentives such as trade routes, promise of profitable fertile lands, or even pardon for crimes, and didn't have to pay their own tickets.

[Emperor of the Titan Squid]

1 hour ago, tater said:

ROMBUS, lol.

(ROMBUS was designed for 450 mt to LEO, then land booster).

How does that compare to the Booster? I wonder if the triangular window panels are strong enough? Also, the idea of using it for transport is awesome!! I wonder if they could move via ferry flight? Unlikely, I guess. Didn't the carbon fiber tanks doom the x33? I' excited to see more detail. Docking and fuel transfer systems, colony and base construction plans, more detailed spacecraft flight schedules, ECLSS explainations, and detailed diagrams. How do they plan to land on that launch mount? Also, what sort of stuff could we do with th booster system?

[kunok]

3 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

Not many details on ECLSS or simply keeping people alive

So nothing in this regard then still isn't a serious plan to me

[Nibb31]

Just now, monstah said:

This I see as a problem too. Historically, people had incentives such as trade routes, promise of profitable fertile lands, or even pardon for crimes, and didn't have to pay their own tickets.

It's not just the people. You can't just arrive and set up a pizza joint as he mentioned. You need a massive infrastructure just to keep people alive, including power plants, habitats, heavy construction equipment, food production, greenhouses, hospitals, air and water processing facilities, warehouses, etc... Things that only governments and major corporations can afford to build and operate. Those corporations are going to need a proper business plan to do so, and that's where it all falls apart.

[Emperor of the Titan Squid]

11 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

So much wasted time on stupid questions.

Not many details on ECLSS or simply keeping people alive. I would have like to see more technical detail on docking systems, or cargo unloading systems. That huge window seems like a recipe for disaster (compare the design to the ISS Cupola for example). So does the booster landing in the launch stand. A slight gust of wind or a mismatch and there goes your rocket and your launch pad. Also, I don't see how they can prevent damaging those huge nozzles with upshooting debris during landing, they look really close to the ground and really exposed.

But the biconic reentry thing is the scariest part for me. The only experiments closely related are a couple of subscale demonstrators (IXV...) that splashed down on parachutes when they ran out of lift, but translating from lifting body reentry to vertical landing on rocket engines has never been done. It has to work on Mars, but also on Earth, and with people on board. I predict a lot of broken carbon fiber before the bugs get ironed out of that.And then there is this whole colonization thing which, I think, is completely overblown hype. His whole plan relies on other people spending massive amounts of money to build and run a colony, for which there is no incentive or return on investment.

The colony could be constructed at least in part from materials on Mars. Colonization an be done, and it will. We need to work towards plans like these, even if they're far fetched. Otherwise, there is no chance of anything happening. Good point, the funding would be hard to get. But, with the interplanetary transit system, they could do lunar mining practically.

3 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

It's not just the people. You can't just arrive and set up a pizza joint as he mentioned. You need a massive infrastructure just to keep people alive, including power plants, habitats, heavy construction equipment, food production, greenhouses, hospitals, air and water processing facilities, warehouses, etc... Things that only governments and major corporations can afford to build and operate. Those corporations are going to need a proper business plan to do so, and that's where it all falls apart.

We can't just abandon a plan because of that. We need to work around it, and come up with a soloution.

[todofwar]

Just now, Nibb31 said:

It's not just the people. You can't just arrive and set up a pizza joint as he mentioned. You need a massive infrastructure just to keep people alive, including power plants, habitats, heavy construction equipment, food production, greenhouses, hospitals, air and water processing facilities, warehouses, etc... Things that only governments and major corporations can afford to build and operate. Those corporations are going to need a proper business plan to do so, and that's where it all falls apart.

To be fair, you can have a smaller supply chain that gives just the basics, no need for major infrastructure. Life would probably be more akin to 1st century rather than 21st, as all sophisticated things like computers will be extremely precious and solely devoted to life support. Medicine would also be limited (though some fungal vats for antibiotics would help). And this is one part that has financial return: developing this kind of small scale infrastructure would enable small countries to become more resource independent. So developing such a bare bones supply chain will have immediate applications. Honestly, if Elon is serious about colonization this is probably the area he needs to focus much more on than space travel. 

But that's getting of topic.

[Scotius]

"Damn it Christopher! Where are palaces with golden roofs, mounds of precious spices and rich cities? Look at this island over there - just sand, coral reefs, stupid palm trees and naked natives! How we are supposed to gain a profit from a bunch of God-forsaken islands? Carribeans, pshaw."

[kunok]

The Colombus expedition has nothing to do with a mars manned mission. The Atlantic and the Caribbean were already habitable, with food and with resources, and a motive to go, making a new trade route. The interplanetary space and Mars have nothing of that

[Nibb31]

2 minutes ago, Emperor of the Titan Squid said:

The colony could be constructed at least in part from materials on Mars.

And how exactly do you get from toxic Martial regolith to a self-sustaining colony? You are going to need a lot of intermediate steps, a lot of heavy machinery with multiple supply chains. You can produce some stuff locally, but for decades you are going to have to import simple things such as toilet paper or toothbrushes, with a resupply only every two years.

The whole effort is massive, and the transit spaceship might actually be the easiest part of the problem.

2 minutes ago, Emperor of the Titan Squid said:

Colonization an be done, and it will. We need to work towards plans like these, even if they're far fetched. Otherwise, there is no chance of anything happening. Good point, the funding would be hard to get. But, with the interplanetary transit system, they could do lunar mining practically.

What good will that be?

7 minutes ago, Emperor of the Titan Squid said:

We can't just abandon a plan because of that. We need to work around it, and come up with a soloution.

No, you need to have an actual problem to find a solution. Mars colonization is a solution looking for a problem.

[Rune]

I take away one thing from all this talk, and one thing only, other than confirming my hunches on the overall architecture and the lack of concrete funding until a big government gets behind it.

And that one thing I take away is, that is a freaking huge composite cryogenic oxydizer tank. As in, nothing even close has been possible to build until we learned that there was one, you know, actually built and passing tests right now. They just put NASA and Michoud to shame very publicly, even if Musk tried to patch things over afterwards by offering to put the production line there.

 

Rune. And I thought nothing was going to top testing a 300 bar full flow engine.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Rune

[Kryten]

11 minutes ago, Scotius said:

"Damn it Christopher! Where are palaces with golden roofs, mounds of precious spices and rich cities? Look at this island over there - just sand, coral reefs, stupid palm trees and naked natives! How we are supposed to gain a profit from a bunch of God-forsaken islands? Carribeans, pshaw."

There's nobody to enslave, steal gold from, or work to death in silver mines on Mars.

[Scotius]

6 minutes ago, kunok said:

The Colombus expedition has nothing to do with a mars manned mission. The Atlantic and the Caribbean were already habitable, with food and with resources, and a motive to go, making a new trade route. The interplanetary space and Mars have nothing of that

Not my point. We are talking about plan that will take decades. During these decades everything can change. Do you think Wright brothers anticipated regular transatlantic passenger flights taking place just 30 years after their first flight? Do you think Robert Goddard expected a Space Shuttle mere 50 years or so after he built his first, primitive rocket engine? Ask Bill Gates if he predicted the Internet and all its uses when he was writing first version of MS Windows. We may not see an economical point in Elon's plan, but who's to say our kids 25 years from now won't see it either?

[Nibb31]

31 minutes ago, todofwar said:

To be fair, you can have a smaller supply chain that gives just the basics, no need for major infrastructure. Life would probably be more akin to 1st century rather than 21st, as all sophisticated things like computers will be extremely precious and solely devoted to life support. Medicine would also be limited (though some fungal vats for antibiotics would help). And this is one part that has financial return: developing this kind of small scale infrastructure would enable small countries to become more resource independent. So developing such a bare bones supply chain will have immediate applications. Honestly, if Elon is serious about colonization this is probably the area he needs to focus much more on than space travel. 

There is no way you could keep 100 people alive on Mars with 1st Century technology. Who wants to go to Mars if there is no toilet paper, no toothpaste, and the only thing you eat is hydroponic tofu? Look at the effort it takes to keep a supply chain for 6 people  on the ISS. Look at the effort it takes to sustain 50 people at Scott-Amundsen base. You litterally need major infrastructure just to keep a handful of people alive in hostile conditions, let alone millions.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Nibb31

[todofwar]

2 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

There is no way you could keep 100 people alive on Mars with 1st Century technology. Look at the effort it takes to keep 6 people alive on the ISS. Look at the effort it takes to keep 50 people alive at Scott-Amundsen base. You litterally need major infrastructure just to keep a handful of people alive, let alone millions.

I didn't mean they'd have 1st century tech. More that's how they would live. No personal computers, no television, lots of manual labor. They would have advanced tech, but every scrap of it will be devoted to the whole keeping them alive part. Not allot of spare transistors for a Nintendo. Clothing will be synthetic fibers (though I wonder if sheep might be useful here, you get wool milk and some meat when it gets old, but then you have the headache of keeping sheep alive) but it will be hand woven and uncomfortable. Not allot of private space, and presumably an almost tribal government system revolving around authority of elders. 

[Nibb31]

Just now, todofwar said:

I didn't mean they'd have 1st century tech. More that's how they would live. No personal computers, no television, lots of manual labor. They would have advanced tech, but every scrap of it will be devoted to the whole keeping them alive part. Not allot of spare transistors for a Nintendo. Clothing will be synthetic fibers (though I wonder if sheep might be useful here, you get wool milk and some meat when it gets old, but then you have the headache of keeping sheep alive) but it will be hand woven and uncomfortable. Not allot of private space, and presumably an almost tribal government system revolving around authority of elders. 

That sounds more like a place where you would send life convicts than where people would want to spend their life savings to go to. Unfortunately, it would be orders of magnitude more expensive than keeping those life convicts in prison.

There probably wouldn't be much unskilled manual labor by the way. Most of it would be highly technical work. Outside construction work would be done with remote-control/automated equipment. EVAs would be limited to the strict minimum to preserve resources.

[todofwar]

2 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

That sounds more like a place where you would send life convicts than where people would want to spend their life savings to go to. Unfortunately, it would be orders of magnitude more expensive than keeping those life convicts in prison.

There probably wouldn't be much unskilled manual labor by the way. Most of it would be highly technical work. Outside construction work would be done with remote-control/automated equipment. EVAs would be limited to the strict minimum to preserve resources.

Never said it was unskilled labor, but robotic components will be reserved for EVA type work. Anything indoors is likely to be done by hand. And this is all to kind of agree with your point, it won't be a nice place to live, even if we can get all the problems solved it will be a grueling existence, likely with low life expectancy, for probably a hundred years before life on Mars looks anything like the science fiction shows and movies inspiring people to think about it. Like you said, who would want to go? 

[kunok]

35 minutes ago, Scotius said:

Not my point. We are talking about plan that will take decades. During these decades everything can change. Do you think Wright brothers anticipated regular transatlantic passenger flights taking place just 30 years after their first flight? Do you think Robert Goddard expected a Space Shuttle mere 50 years or so after he built his first, primitive rocket engine? Ask Bill Gates if he predicted the Internet and all its uses when he was writing first version of MS Windows. We may not see an economical point in Elon's plan, but who's to say our kids 25 years from now won't see it either?

I don't care about economics, there is not really need of that, that's a problem of the capitalism. What I'm saying isn't any purpose more than just exploration or science (with colonization doesn't help at all), and, the important point, the infrastructure to be just alive in mars (or in transit to) is huge (and undeveloped), the infrastructure to manufacture anything there is even bigger.

You can make steel in earth in the 15th century by cutting wood, making coal and mining some iron ore to melt it in steel, then use an anvil to make 15th century metal things, with knowledge and labor you can do the installation for doing that from almost 0.

But in mars there is no wood, there isn't coal, there isn't an oxidant atmosphere useful for the industrial processes. You will need a vacuum mining operation, a steel factory adapted to work in vacuum that will depend on a previous chemical industry because you need chemicals (or even more supplies), you will need precision machining tools to make something spacegrade, generating power for everything and that's simplifying. Repeat that with almost every single need of a human outpost.

Edited September 27, 2016 by kunok