Russian Moon Mission

[Jonfliesgoats]

The Russians recently announced plans to go to the moon and establish a lasting, manned presence there.  Think this is feasible?  Will they do it, or is it just a PR move by the Russians?

[_Augustus_]

No. Their space budget is crippled at less than $1 billion a year. Angara flies less than once a year. It's a miracle Soyuz launches even work, let alone are safe. Nauka has been delayed for a decade. The Science and Power Modules might not fly until 2024. PTK-NP and the lunar lander are just PowerPoint slides. 

I think that the more likely scenario is that the new US administration is going to use SLS/Orion to go back to the Moon, and collaborate with/fund Russia for the lunar lander.

Edited December 2, 2016 by _Augustus_

[Jonfliesgoats]

A joint lunar program would be the type of large project that could justify significant political realignment.  Putin is also saying he wants to normalize relations with the West.  Seems like he is setting up the next, joint space venture.  In either case, more spaceflight and more ambitious manned projects excite me.

 

 

[Kryten]

Such plans are generally 'announced' annually, usually around cosmonautics day.

[Jonfliesgoats]

Very true.  I feel myself wanting to be dismissive of the Russians, but I also don't want to be a slave to my own bias.

What do you think we can expect out of ROSCOSMOS if the price of oil stabilizes?  Will they do more than send Soyuz capsules and commercial satellites into LEO?

[Wjolcz]

I hope there's as much international collaboration in the spaceflight industry as possible.

If you do a few small steps with someone you might as well go on a much longer journey with them.

[Jonfliesgoats]

Me too.  When it comes to humans and politics, I am generally pessimistic.  Look at the opium wars, big tobacco, our initial response to the AIDS epidemic and climate change for just a few examples of human failure.

With spaceflight, I am optimistic.  It would be grand if we could have a joint American-Russo-Sino-European manned moon mission.  Whether or not this is feasible is another matter.

[DDE]

14 hours ago, Jonfliesgoats said:

Very true.  I feel myself wanting to be dismissive of the Russians, but I also don't want to be a slave to my own bias.

What do you think we can expect out of ROSCOSMOS if the price of oil stabilizes?  Will they do more than send Soyuz capsules and commercial satellites into LEO?

They didn't do much back when the oil was at $100+. All of the Mars missions ended in disaster, and everything else was on paper. Many of the institutional problems persist.

Harsh as it may sound, I have zero confidence in my country's space agency being able to undertake a large-scale, novel project.

[Jonfliesgoats]

I fear you are right.

It's easy to let pessimism seep into our thinking.  in the US, we have tremendous institutional inefficiency in DOD and, likely, NASA.  I was convinced NASA is incapable of conducting manned spaceflight.  The problem is that this pessimism doesn't change that institutional inertia and other dirty laundry that we all see in our various spheres of aerospace.

An optimist may see an organization full of talent just waiting for the right management to reorganize and unleash their collective potential.  Upsets and reorganizations only come with crisis, unfortunately.