Space Travel: Where will we be by 2070?

[Borklund]

There's one little issue there; we already know which companies are going to be building Mars hardware; and they aren't SpaceX; because they're already building it, or at least developing it. There's absolutely no reason to hire SpaceX for beyond-LEO missions, because there are already companies that have been contracted to build the hardware, and which have experience in doing so. The switch in LEO to companies like SpaceX is because it's routine enough, and becoming cheap enough, that companies can actually expect to make a profit after NASA's contracts are finished. What are SpaceX supposed to do with a Mars rocket after NASA don't want it anymore? Try and recruit billionaires for weekend trips to Phobos?

Sure, but Presidents and Congresses come and go, and things change (see Constellation). There's no reason why the next Mars or beyond Earth mission after InSight can't be launched by SpaceX. As for SpaceX's own Mars efforts, you should read this Wired article. Here's part of the very first paragraph: "Serial entrepreneur Elon Musk says SpaceX is developing a plan for trips to Mars that will eventually cost just $500,000 per seat.". I hope he's right and he follows through with it. While it is easy to doubt this grand rhetoric, Elon Musk is one of the few people who not only talks a big game but also delivers.

[Nibb31]

Don't get me wrong. I'm a big fan of SpaceX and their designs. Their Grasshopper program, a reusable Falcon, has the potential of being a real gamechanger in the launch business and that is pure awesomeness.

However, as much as Dragon is cool, it's just a LEO taxi, not an interplanetary exploration vehicle. It doesn't even have a toilet! You could probably stick one on a rocket to go to Mars, but you'll also need a fully equiped hab module for the 2-year mission, radiation and MMOD shielding, supplies, a lander with a very beefy ascent stage (Dragon's landing rockets will not put you back into orbit), a rover, ground equipment... 12tons to GTO is not nearly enough for a survivable Mars mission. It is orders of magnitude more complex than anything even NASA can pull off with its thousands of employees, so it's really unrealistic to imagine a relatively small company like SpaceX doing it.

Oh, and there is the cost involved. I know that Elon Musk is a billionnaire and he wants to go to Mars, but he doesn't have infinite pockets. SpaceX is a private company and there is no business model for Mars missions. No bucks, no buck rogers.

Edited October 15, 2012 by Nibb31

[Borklund]

Don't get me wrong. I'm a big fan of SpaceX and their designs. Their goal right now is Grasshopper, a reusable Falcon, which has the potential of being a real gamechanger in the launch business and that is pure awesomeness.

However, as much as Dragon is cool, it's just a LEO taxi, not an interplanetary exploration vehicle. It doesn't even have a toilet! You could probably stick one on a rocket to go to Mars, but you'll also need a hab module for the 2-year mission, radiation and MMOD shielding, supplies, a lander with a very beefy ascent stage (Dragon's landing rockets will not put you back into orbit), a rover, ground equipment... It is orders of magnitude more complex than anything even NASA can pull off with its thousands of employees, so it's really unrealistic to imagine a relatively small company like SpaceX doing it.

Oh, and there is the cost involved. I know that Elon Musk is a billionnaire and he wants to go to Mars, but he doesn't have infinite pockets. SpaceX is a private company and there is no business model for Mars missions.

Grasshopper is a concept and a test bed right now. The Falcon 9 v1.1, Falcon Heavy and a human rated Dragon are more tangible and closer to production, and that's most of what you would need to go to Mars. Development on the SuperDraco thrusters (which could be used for powered landing on Mars) was completed September 1st this year. Habitability is being worked on.

The Dragon in its current configuration is just a LEO taxi, but the DragonRider (crewed Dragon version) isn't many years away from being a reality. NASA approved the preliminary design a year ago and work is progressing. A potential NASA-SpaceX mission to Mars was proposed but eventually lost out to the Martian lander InSight for a 2016 launch. That doesn't mean the end of the Red Dragon (the name for the Mars configuration Dragon) - it might be selected for NASA's next Discovery mission (provided the budget for NASA's planetary exploration isn't gutted in the years to come). The cost projection was less than $400m which is a pittance compared to the $2.5bn MSL (Curiosity) project.

It isn't orders of magnitude more complex than anything NASA has pulled off. SpaceX is growing in every single way - the launch manifest, its employee count and the number of different spacecraft it is designing or building. Barring a series of unfortunate coincidences or accidents I really don't see how SpaceX won't launch something beyond Earth in the next decade. The Google Lunar X Prize is set for a Moon landing in 2015, and aside from adjusting navigation software, Falcon 9 and Dragon do not need any modifications to reach lunar orbit.

[Kryten]

Red dragon is probably doable I'll admit, though I'm not sure about how much useful information you could get out of a modified capsule rather than an actual custom built probe, but it's hardly means they're ready for something on the scale NASA is planning with SLS and orion. Being willing to jury-rig an orbital taxi and GEO launch vehicle into a mars probe for the right price is a far cry from the kind of exploration-for-explorations-sake-and-damn-the-fact-we're-haemorrhaging-cash you're implying.

[Nibb31]

Red Dragon is an unmanned one-way lander probe, not a manned mission to Mars. It would be more of a publicity stunt for SpaceX than a serious custom-built lander.

[Borklund]

Red dragon is probably doable I'll admit, though I'm not sure about how much useful information you could get out of a modified capsule rather than an actual custom built probe, but it's hardly means they're ready for something on the scale NASA is planning with SLS and orion. Being willing to jury-rig an orbital taxi and GEO launch vehicle into a mars probe for the right price is a far cry from the kind of exploration-for-explorations-sake-and-damn-the-fact-we're-haemorrhaging-cash you're implying.

Red Dragon is an unmanned one-way lander probe, not a manned mission to Mars. It would be more of a publicity stunt for SpaceX than a serious custom-built lander.

While Red Dragon, as proposed, is an unmanned one-way lander it is a clear stepping stone toward putting people on Mars. The different Dragon variants all share the same DNA, and making a Red DragonRider wouldn't be an insurmountable challenge once the DragonRider has flown. The SuperDraco thrusters that would provide the powered landing has twice the power of the Falcon 1 rocket engine. If you give it enough fuel it would no problem be able to both land and take off for an orbital rendezvous to a return craft. I'm not saying SpaceX going to Mars by itself is the most likely outcome, but it isn't impossible either.

[Kayaking4autism]

I think we'll be crying and huddled together in a crater here on Earth desperately trying to survive a nuclear world war and wars over the few remaining geiger counters to check if food is safe to eat will be the main issue.

I doubt mankind will venture into the stars for at least another 50 years after that.

If that doesn't happen however and we somehow manage to control our urge to destroy one another... I think there's already a covert manned presence on the moon launched out of A51 and I think the Russians also have a covert modern day equivalent of Almaz. So Quite how far reaching that covert military presence even in 2070 I think we'd be kept in the dark about.

The overt civilian presence in "space" in suborbital flights to other places on Earth I think will be available for most people to buy by then to go to Australia or Japan or Africa or wherever in the blink of an eye.

Unless you built some sort of biodome with telerobots over many many months the moon isn't really going to be inhabitable.

I estimate you'd need 14 acres of pressurized hydroponics to produce enough oxygen indefinately and sustainably for one person. Not an easy task so to have ISS crew levels on the moon.

Perhaps there is another way involving chemistry extracting oxygen out of moon rock...

Perhaps we suss out nuclear fusion and work out how to do a deuterium implosion mangeto-thruster based on the polywell perhaps this is far more realistic than "warp drive, jump gate and time travel"

I think the cost of rocket engines will fall dramatically and the payloads going into orbit will be million dollar instead of billion dollar.

I forsee fuel getting more expensive and any real life mechanical mouse industries kethane attempts will be shot down in flames by the oil companies just like Stanley Meyer or that Australian electric car dude....

Kethane may well be POSSIBLE but whether or not the oil and automotive industries will allow it is a different matter.

I think the main thing holding Earth back from space travel is our own selfish greed, grudges against one another and spending too much money on war.

If in 1969 vietnam had ended and there was world peace we COULD have done Mars already like Gene Cernan predicted. I believe the only way to get to mars is if the entire world unites and puts asides its differences to ensure our species no longer has all its eggs in one basket here on Earth.

[The Stinger]

I'm skeptical about Mars One too, but they have some traits which remind me of the Apollo program.

But let's not ridicule them, because they might be the next Columbus, Galileo, Goddard etc.

[Kryten]

If that doesn't happen however and we somehow manage to control our urge to destroy one another... I think there's already a covert manned presence on the moon launched out of A51 and I think the Russians also have a covert modern day equivalent of Almaz. So Quite how far reaching that covert military presence even in 2070 I think we'd be kept in the dark about.

Even ignoring the complete lack of evidence for this (it's hardly easy to hide an orbital launch...), why would either the US or Russia actually do this? What is there to gain militarily in space, other than stuff like spysats and ASAT systems which they're doing openly anyway?

[MmPMSFmM]

As far as I know:

ESA is preparing a manned mission to mars

and NASA is going to search for artificial life around the hydro-thermal vents in the liquid oceans beneath the surface of Europa , same for Ganymede (Moons of Jupiter)

This is just for the upcoming years, probably before 2025.

So by 2070 we'll have a colony on the Moon, on Mars, on Europa, on Ganymede and probably more.

The history books say that this is the age of space travel and television... Both so true...

[Borklund]

As far as I know:

ESA is preparing a manned mission to mars

and NASA is going to search for artificial life around the hydro-thermal vents in the liquid oceans beneath the surface of Europa , same for Ganymede (Moons of Jupiter)

This is just for the upcoming years, probably before 2025.

So by 2070 we'll have a colony on the Moon, on Mars, on Europa, on Ganymede and probably more.

The history books say that this is the age of space travel and television... Both so true...

AFAIK ESA is not preparing a manned mission to Mars? Do you have a source? I know they're putting together a robotic mission to Mars, ExoMars, but that's it right? The NASA led Jupiter Europa Orbiter has long been scrapped, and while the latest Planetary Science Decadal Survey recommends NASA conducts a mission to Europa, there's no such plan on the books. However, ESA are putting together a mission to Europa in place of NASA - the Jupiter Icy Moon Explorer (or JUICE, my favorite of all of the space exploration acronyms). It's an orbiter, and it'll fly by Ganymede, Callisto, and Europa but won't probe the moons.

While I am always one to be optimistic, I'm afraid we probably won't have an extraplanetary colony any time soon

[LukeTim]

we somehow manage to control our urge to destroy one another...

I don't know about you, but I have never felt any urge even remotely approaching that... and I am pretty sure that a large (>95%) percentage of people don't feel any such urge either.

Reading your post was a really depressing experience.

I'll give you credit for the commercial sub-orbital flights around the world, though. That is definitely going to happen. London to Sydney in 30 minutes AND a view of the Earth from an altitude of 500km?... Yes please.

Anyway, I think that chemical energy (unless you count batteries) is on its way out... it will either have a much lesser presence by 2070 or will have virtually gone completely. In its place will be early forms of Fusion energy (how about a rocket powered exclusively by a controlled fusion reaction? Much like Orion but with much less nuclear fallout), more renewable energies (some much more efficient and effective ion thruster designs), and perhaps some very early matter-antimatter solutions.

Heck, with NASA looking at Warp Drives now, we could have seen those at work (short distances and small objects, probably) by 2070.

Edited October 18, 2012 by LukeTim

[rb22]

take a look at this!

http://www.sen.com/feature/mars-one-plans-for-human-settlement-on-mars.html

[Borklund]

Great read, thanks rb22. The optimist in me hopes they do succeed...

[mustwinfull]

Great read, thanks rb22. The optimist in me hopes they do succeed...

As does mine but I was reading threads over on nasaspaceflight and it seems people don't think its going to happen because of issues they haven't thought out properly. I'm currently in a state of thinking where I say "It might happen, it might not".

[rb22]

I hope they do too. Seems they are relying on funding from some sort of 'global reality-TV'. Nice idea, I think it would be a popular show! 'Live' streams from the rovers would be amazing.

[mustwinfull]

I hope they do too. Seems they are relying on funding from some sort of 'global reality-TV'. Nice idea, I think it would be a popular show! 'Live' streams from the rovers would be amazing.

Yeah it would be great but I don't think you can produce the money they need for a return mission with just a TV show, which makes it "interesting". It's a one way trip until they have enough money to bring you back.

[Shadownailshot]

Yeah it would be great but I don't think you can produce the money they need for a return mission with just a TV show, which makes it "interesting". It's a one way trip until they have enough money to bring you back.

If you read all about the mission, those people aren't coming back. That's supposed to be a permanent settlement. The rovers will prepare it for human settlement, then people will come, I think five at a time. They will live out the rest of their lives there. Possibly the greatest human experiment of all time.

By 2070 I think single stage to orbit flight will be more common than vertical rocket launch craft. There's this craft from Reaction Engine LTD which will be a key starting point. The same company is also developing hypersonic (mach 5 & 8) airliners. I also think that construction may have started on a space elevator, as we've just now reached the level where all the technology exists, but has not been pieced together yet.

I think there will be mining of metals from NEOs within the next 20-30 years, probably only starting on a small scale. But the business model for that is extremely profitable. There's enough metal in a small asteroid to make any money hungry idiot drool over what his bank account would look like after harvesting that one asteroid.

But so far, space has been almost primarily exploration and communication. I think other industries will pop up, and some of them already have. There's space tourism companies now, and soon there will be mining companies. If MarsOne is successful, then there will eventually be public transit through space.

[mustwinfull]

If you read all about the mission, those people aren't coming back. That's supposed to be a permanent settlement. The rovers will prepare it for human settlement, then people will come, I think five at a time. They will live out the rest of their lives there. Possibly the greatest human experiment of all time.

-snip-

No, it was stated by someone on nasaspaceflight, a person who actually worked on the project that there would be a rescue mission but it wouldn't happen mission unless they could afford one.

Thanks.

[LaydeeDem]

I don't like the whole Mars One idea. Why does it have to be a reality show to interest people? Isn't going to mars enough?

[Shadownailshot]

No, it was stated by someone on nasaspaceflight, a person who actually worked on the project that there would be a rescue mission but it wouldn't happen mission unless they could afford one.

Thanks.

Can you get a link? In everything I read (mind you, I read about this around a month ago) said that they wouldn't be going home and it was a permanent settlement, therefore bypassing the difficulties of other manned mars mission concepts of the return trip and also having the first extra-terrestrial permanent human colony.

[Shadownailshot]

I don't like the whole Mars One idea. Why does it have to be a reality show to interest people? Isn't going to mars enough?

The reality show idea was to provide funding for the project. It would also incite interest in possibly even the dullest of people.

[Borklund]

I don't like the whole Mars One idea. Why does it have to be a reality show to interest people? Isn't going to mars enough?

If it was we would've been on Mars in the 70s or 80s. The threat of war didn't do it, so maybe in the world we live in today a TV show or movie about it isn't such a bad idea.

[rb22]

Astro application info:

http://mars-one.com/en/faq-en/21-faq-selection/251-do-i-qualify-to-apply

Become a reality TV star!..

[Nibb31]

Mars One is basically a televised high tech suicide. It's really about as low as we can get as a species. It would make me really angry if that is the best we can do to get humans to Mars.

What happens when the TV show get's cancelled? When they run out of supplies? When some crucial piece of life support equipment fails ? When they get sick or injured ?

The whole plan is unrealistic, inhumane and damned cynical.