[space] Is Mars-one a scam?

[miracmert]

Mars One does not have hardware contracts, neither for launch vehicles or spacecraft. They can sign all the we'll-agree-to-have-our-logo-on-your-website agreements they want, Mars One are not going to go to Mars in 2033 or ever.

They don't have a launcher, SpaceX has a launcher. Mars One has not bought a single launch from SpaceX or anyone else for that matter.

Mars One is a scam, stop giving them attention so that they'll go away.

Seriously? How old are you? Do you believe NASA does every launch and vehicle by itself? There are always companies that provide capsules, suits, launchers etc. Instead of spending money for designing one, MarsOne decided to buy an already-designed launcher and vehicle that is build by SpaceX. SpaceX doesn't do space flights for itself you know, they design, they build and they sell spacecraft to whoever agency buys. NASA is an agency funded by government and they rely on the budget given every year. MarsOne is trying to show people that they don't need to wait until ugly governments get bored with stupid wars and decide to explore space, they want to prove that people can explore space themselves with their own money without political worries. I'm actually worried about the money MarsOne has and if they can keep that money until the mission begins but I totally hope they will.

[hugix]

Seriously? How old are you? Do you believe NASA does every launch and vehicle by itself? There are always companies that provide capsules, suits, launchers etc. Instead of spending money for designing one, MarsOne decided to buy an already-designed launcher and vehicle that is build by SpaceX. SpaceX doesn't do space flights for itself you know, they design, they build and they sell spacecraft to whoever agency buys. NASA is an agency funded by government and they rely on the budget given every year. MarsOne is trying to show people that they don't need to wait until ugly governments get bored with stupid wars and decide to explore space, they want to prove that people can explore space themselves with their own money without political worries. I'm actually worried about the money MarsOne has and if they can keep that money until the mission begins but I totally hope they will.

Which spacecraft are they going to buy from spaceX. As far as I know spaceX has currently one in development designed for Lower Earth Orbit targets like the ISS.

[Diche Bach]

The atmosphere does almost all of the radiation absorption, not a magnetic field.

Disputed. Perhaps one of the resident experts can clarify.

Earth itself is largely protected from the solar wind by its magnetic field, which deflects most of the charged particles; however some of the charged particles are trapped in the Van Allen radiation belt. A smaller number of particles from the solar wind manage to travel, as though on an electromagnetic energy transmission line, to the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere in the auroral zones.

Even to the extent that Earth's atmosphere does protect the surface from radiation, the fact that Mar's atmosphere is about 0.6% as dense on average indicates that the Martian atmosphere is unlikely to diminish much of the radiation at the surface as compared to in orbit.

[SargeRho]

It does. Curiosity has a radiation sensor, and it says the radiation is equivalent to low earth orbit.

[Technical Ben]

Yes, the radiation on Mars is so mild that the MARIE experiment broke after a couple of powerful solar flares in 2003

Humanity is unlikely to ever go extinct, under any circumstances short of the ultimate fate of Earth being consumed by the Sun, some billion years hence.

Nuclear war, asteroid impact, plagues, wars; as someone who has studied the evolutionary and cultural history of humans in all our diversity for over 30 years, I have no fear that any of such cataclysms have any reasonable prospect of driving humanity into "extinction."

There is a strangely contradictory logic in arguing that (a) we have the ability, resourcefulness, and adaptability to colonize an inhospitable hellhole like Mars; yet ( we are simultaneously vulnerable to extinction because some fearful cataclysmic event might make Earth difficult to live on.

That's a really good example. Anything short of an asteroid reducing earth to a Mars, and we can survive it more easily than actually going to Mars. In fact, due to manpower and resources on earth, we could survive being reduced further than a Mars like planet and still "survive" more easily than trying to ship it all to Mars. Well, based on current tech that is, so still true for the near future.

[SargeRho]

The whole reason SpaceX was founded was to make mankind a spacefaring civilisation, and to colonise Mars. DragonRider, FalconHeavy and the Reusable F9 are all just means to do that.

Recently someone came up with the Fusion Driven Rocket, unlike VASIMR, it doesn't require a gigawatt power generator, but doesn't have the problem of other fusion drives, since it doesn't use the Fusion engine to power the ship, but mostly for propulsion.

Edited August 21, 2013 by SargeRho

[Diche Bach]

It does. Curiosity has a radiation sensor, and it says the radiation is equivalent to low earth orbit.

Le sigh . . .

In 1965, the Mariner 4 probe discovered that Mars had no global magnetic field that would protect the planet from potentially life-threatening cosmic radiation and solar radiation; observations made in the late 1990s by the Mars Global Surveyor confirmed this discovery.[39] Scientists speculate that the lack of magnetic shielding helped the solar wind blow away much of Mars's atmosphere over the course of several billion years.[40] As a result, the planet has been vulnerable to radiation from space for about 4 billion years.[41] Currently, ionizing radiation on Mars is typically two orders of magnitude (or 100 times) higher than on Earth.[42] Even the hardiest cells known could not possibly survive the cosmic radiation near the surface of Mars for that long.[16][43] After mapping cosmic radiation levels at various depths on Mars, researchers have concluded that any life within the first several meters of the planet's surface would be killed by lethal doses of cosmic radiation.[16][17][18] The team calculated that the cumulative damage to DNA and RNA by cosmic radiation would limit retrieving viable dormant cells on Mars to depths greater than 7.5 metres below the planet's surface.[17]

Even the most radiation-tolerant Earthly bacteria would survive in dormant spore state only 18,000 years at the surface; at 2 meters â€â€the greatest depth at which the ExoMars rover will be capable of reaching survival time would be 90,000 to half million years, depending on the type of rock.[18]

The Radiation assessment detector on board the Curiosity rover is currently quantifying the flux of biologically hazardous radiation at the surface of Mars today, and will help determine how these fluxes vary on diurnal, seasonal, solar cycle and episodic (flare, storm) timescales. These measurements will allow calculations of the depth in rock or soil to which this flux, when integrated over long timescales, provides a lethal dose for known terrestrial organisms. Through such measurements, scientists can learn how deep below the surface life would have to be, or have been in the past, to be protected.[44]

Believe me dude, I would love to believe that humans living on Mars, much less getting there, was something I might see in my lifetime. But unless I discount the obstacles, both technical and economic, I am unable to go with that wishful thinking that we both share.

[SargeRho]

There are no technical, only economic obstacles. We Do have all the technology needed to go to mars, we've had for at least a decade and half. All we need to do is accumulate a truckload of money, and build the craft.

[lajoswinkler]

It does. Curiosity has a radiation sensor, and it says the radiation is equivalent to low earth orbit.

Until the Sun craps out something, as it does sometimes.

Mars has no dynamo effect of its core and its atmosphere is pathetic. There's a difference between staying on ISS for a few months and living your whole life on Mars.

What about psychological effects? Does anyone here realize those people would kill each other like animals? It's just a matter of time.

Imagine you're sentenced to a life in few capsules, with rare EVAs. No more trees. No more blue sky. No more rain, no more animals, grass, clouds, birds.

Most of your food is boring, mushy stuff you get from grown algae. Every year, perhaps, you get to eat cookies sent from Earth. You can't even live chat with people on Earth, because the signal travels a significant amount of time.

And there's no one to force you to stop doing anything you want (like in prison). No more sex? Why not rape? Who would punish you?

With no hope of ever returning back, we'd witness a horrific decline of human minds. Reality TV? How about ****ing illegal live snuff, because that's what it is.

The whole concept of a permanent settlement requires law enforcement, at least.

Legal issues aside, with all these problems, I don't see how anyone would invest in such a stupid idea.

[Diche Bach]

There are no technical, only economic obstacles. We Do have all the technology needed to go to mars, we've had for at least a decade and half. All we need to do is accumulate a truckload of money, and build the craft.

I don't want to belabor this and I do not hold any hope of convincing you of anything. But I thought other folks might find this interesting. Radiation risks for Mars astronauts.

Spending a few months onboard ISS is one thing. Living the remainder of your life on Mars, or worse being conceived and born there is another thing entirely.

[Karriz]

They're planning on doing plenty of unmanned missions at first, so I'm hoping that they'll get at least something on the surface of Mars.

It's not a scam, they won't just disappear with the money they've grabbed.

Either way, we'll see in couple of years when they finally need to get serious about training and hardware design.

Roadmap is there if someone has missed it: http://www.mars-one.com/en/mission/summary-of-the-plan

As you can see, plenty of unmanned launches before the manned ones. They won't just send the astronauts blindly and see if something goes wrong.

[SargeRho]

I don't want to belabor this and I do not hold any hope of convincing you of anything.

Not when the technology to build a mars mission has existed already for 10 years or more. I'm talking a "traditional" mission to Mars and back in this case, not a settlement...granted, we have the tech to do that as well. Digging isn't new for us, neither is burying stuff under more stuff.

Edited August 21, 2013 by SargeRho

[Diche Bach]

Not when the technology to build a mars mission has existed already for 10 years or more.

Well I wish them the best of luck. When they succeed in a few years time, you can come back and tell me you told me so

[SargeRho]

The biggest hurdle is still economic in nature. The tech is there, the money is another story.

[hugix]

They're planning on doing plenty of unmanned missions at first, so I'm hoping that they'll get at least something on the surface of Mars.

It's not a scam, they won't just disappear with the money they've grabbed.

Either way, we'll see in couple of years when they finally need to get serious about training and hardware design.

Roadmap is there if someone has missed it: http://www.mars-one.com/en/mission/summary-of-the-plan

As you can see, plenty of unmanned launches before the manned ones. They won't just send the astronauts blindly and see if something goes wrong.

First launch is in 3 years, yet SpaceX seems to know nothing of a launch. Not a single launch has been ordered And with a budget of 132,575 dollars, that ain't happening.

[Motokid600]

I think a floating city in Venus's upper atmosphere is more realistic then a Martian colony. And I don't care where we go. If we cannot give these people a means of escape then there's no reason to send humans into space. We humans need that piece of mind. If something goes wrong their needs to be contingencies. A way to get home. The single best thing for an astronauts sanity. That and a good meal. And if you can't give him that. Just give him something to do.

Edited August 22, 2013 by Motokid600

[Stargate525]

The main hurdle to a Martian colony is economic. It'll be overcome because of economic factors. Columbus was looking for a shortcut to undermine trade margins, Magellan was looking for an alternate trade route as well. Every major exploratory feat we humans have done was to buy things, sell things, take things, or use things, with the exception of the moon landings, which was done as a posturing.

If rare earths get expensive enough to justify offworld mining, or people will pay enough to get rid of prisoners sentenced to life... it'll happen. It's already been talked about with the moon.

[Devo]

Eh, did you look on their site? It's laid out how they plan to get there.

oh.. i'm totally convinced now....

[Joshington]

When any one piece of equipment in this picture exists, Mars One is worth talking about.

Wheels exist. Your argument is invalid.

Sorry, couldn't help it.

[LaydeeDem]

As much as I would love Mars One to be a thing, a manned mission to Mars isn't happening without government funding. The Apollo Program costed around 170 billion dollars*. Do you really think a reality TV show would be able to gain that much or more required for a mission to Mars?

_{*Adjusted for inflation}

Also related:

[KOCOUR]

Really liked this at first, actualy considdered signing up, but more i read about it my enthusiasm chilled out until i lost interest. The biggest "NO WAY" for me, was the "big brother" thing because Iam no comedian, and iam not here for someones amusement.

[Seret]

I don't think it's a scam. It's just an incredibly naive, foolish idea. You might as well place a bet they aren't going anywhere, ever.

This. About the only value that it has is that it keeps the idea of pioneering space missions in the media and the public's consciousness.

We're not ready to risk a permanent outpost that far away yet, we've managed to keep one running in LEO, but doing so further away involves a commensurate increase in complexity and cost. Mars One do not have the resources to accomplish the task. In reality it would take a multinational effort with support of major space agencies, similar to the ISS.

Jumping straight to a permanent outpost on Mars is not a sensible approach to managing the risks involved. Ideas like Mars Inspiration are a sensible next step. Tackling the challenges of the trip there and back is a good goal at this stage. After that a manned landing with a short stay and/or a station in Mars orbit. Only once we'd managed to pull that off would a permanent base on Mars be a logical step.

Although the question of why does loom large. Robots could do the same science cheaper with less risk. The idea of a manned outpost in space being some kind of lifeboat for the human race is spurious, since such an outpost wouldn't be self-sufficient. We're a long, long, long way off having self-sufficient outposts on other planets or in space.

[Nibb31]

The whole reason SpaceX was founded was to make mankind a spacefaring civilisation, and to colonise Mars. DragonRider, FalconHeavy and the Reusable F9 are all just means to do that.

No. Elon Musk has a dream, but he is primarily a businessman. In the end, SpaceX is a launch service provider. They launch stuff for insititutions and corporations who pay for it.

SpaceX is not space program. They are not going to fund their own exploration missions.

There are no technical, only economic obstacles. We Do have all the technology needed to go to mars, we've had for at least a decade and half. All we need to do is accumulate a truckload of money, and build the craft.

You can argue that any technical problems can be solved of you inject enough money into them. However, there is no money to be made in space exploration. The infrastructure does not exist. Falcon Heavy and Red Dragon are powerpoint concepts at this stage.

There are many problems, while not unsolvable technically (sure, you could always ship billions of tons of lead to Mars to act as shielding) are unsolvable economically. We simply don't have the infrastructure to support permanent life. Closed loop life support and ISRU, even on Earth, have yet to be demonstrated, let alone developed into critical vital hardware (and no, the ISS is not a closed loop). We have the theory, but there is a huge gap between the theory and designing and building robust equipment that humans rely on with their life.

Having the theory is not having the technological. The technological capability comes from having the hardware designed, built, and tested.

And I won't even mention the ethical issue of stranding a dozen human beings with no hope of return and watching them die slowly as TV ratings decrease and the program runs out of money for the resupply missions...

Oh, and I doubt that the type of people that would make an interesting cast for a reality TV show are the type of people you would want to send on a mission to Mars.

As for starting a colony, the whole idea is stupid. We don't even know if humans can reproduce safely in the radiation and low gravity environment of Mars, and even if they could, there would not be enough genetic variety and you would eventually run into congeniality problems. You would need to send several hundred people to Mars to make a colony sustainable, which is something not feasible with current launch technology.

[jwenting]

Really liked this at first, actualy considdered signing up, but more i read about it my enthusiasm chilled out until i lost interest. The biggest "NO WAY" for me, was the "big brother" thing because Iam no comedian, and iam not here for someones amusement.

yes, "sex on Mars, life on Channel 9 tonight!!!".

[SargeRho]

No, Elon said several times that the reason he founded SpaceX is to make Humanity a spacefaring civilisation, and to colonise Mars.

Also the Falcon Heavy is not just a powerpoint presentation, it's first flight is going to be later this year or early 2014. I think they already built the first DragonRider capsule, a modified version of which will be the RedDragon.

Hence why Musk founded SpaceX. To develop that launch hardware.