What would Hari Seldon say about today?

[ProjectXMark1]

For anyone who hasn't read Isaac Asimov's Foundation series, Hari Seldon is a character in the book that successfully predicted the slow-motion collapse of the (far future) governmental system and ensueing scientific regression and 30,000 years of anarchy through application of 'psychohistory', which is essentially mass-psychology/sociology condensed into mathematical equations.

Basically, what do you think his equations would come up with?

[Holo]

Not much. From what I recall of psychohistory, it is similar to thermodynamics in that it relies on trillions of people/atoms to give accurate predictions, and a mere 7 billion people wouldn't be a big enough sample size.

[Wesreidau]

Well, seeing as Trantor's only export was reams of regulation for all the far-flung reaches and industries of the empire, just as Rome was issuing her edicts to convert half of all vineyards to grain fields and binding sons to their father's profession, I would say the modern regulatory state fits nicely with the premise of Foundation. I actually found it pretty creepy to read considering the mountains of garbage being vomited out in the federal register every year.

[nhnifong]

Human history seems to be dominated by two patterns.

The sporadic, short-term rise and fall of civilizations on the span of hundreds of years as money, power, and influence changes hands.

A long-term exponential increase of communications, mechanization, and energy consumption which is likely an S curve that will fit loosely to the population curve and will not reach a "singularity".

At the even longer scale, the history of hominids is a sequence of speciation events every few tens of thousands of years, with brutal warfare resulting in a winner-take-all scenario.

Edited November 20, 2013 by nhnifong

[Mmmmyum]

A bit off topic but I just wanted to say that collecting all three books in this series is one of the few things I'm truly proud of... All three printed in the early 70s/late 60s. (The original trilogy)

Also I liked the way it spoke about social development and the way religion plays a role... (Kind of like the collapse of the Ancient Roman Empire)

Edited November 20, 2013 by Mmmmyum

[Chrisd857]

Huh, I just finished Forward the Foundation a few days ago.

Anyway, I think psychohistory could work on Earth, since Prelude to Foundation indicates that understanding Trantor was sufficient to begin understanding the galactic empire. One vibe I kind of get from the series relates to someone else's short story I read that humanity is kind of like the Phoenix, destroying itself repeatedly, but it is the destruction that allows it to live forever.