Where will we go in the next century?

[kmMango]

The past 100 years have seen amazing advances. Now, in 2014, we are within reach of nuclear fusion, SSTO spacecraft, space tourism, Asteroid catching, and a possible warp drive. So, where do you think we will get by 2114, in terms of space exploration?

Discuss.

[Aethon]

Unpredictable. The machines will take over everything well before 2114. Let's hope they're peaceful. I for one welcome our robot overlords.

[kmMango]

The Singularity will be interesting. Maybe we need some help. We clearly can't manage ourselves, let alone the planet! Hope it will be benevolent!

[K^2]

Unpredictable. The machines will take over everything well before 2114. Let's hope they're peaceful. I for one welcome our robot overlords.

One time, a vending machine ate my dollar. The war with machines has already begun. They just don't know it yet.

But yeah, no predicting past singularity and/or collapse of society. We'll just have to wait for it. Won't be long now, either way.

[kmMango]

And I thought I was a pessimist! (Apparently, long term pessimism is a form of depression. In that case, I am depressed, along with most of my friends!)

[Seret]

I'm sceptical of the whole idea of the Singularity. It seems to be projecting forward based on the same models that led Malthus to predict the imminent collapse of society, and it'll fail to come true for the same reasons. Moore's Law has already broken down, and nothing ever keeps growing indefinitely.

Edited July 9, 2014 by Seret

[78stonewobble]

I'm sceptical of the while idea of the Singularity. It seems to be projecting forward based on the same models that led Malthus to predict the imminent collapse of society, and it'll fail to come true for the same reasons. Moore's Law has already broken down, and nothing ever keeps growing indefinitely.

I'm in this camp.

[magnemoe]

I'm sceptical of the while idea of the Singularity. It seems to be projecting forward based on the same models that led Malthus to predict the imminent collapse of society, and it'll fail to come true for the same reasons. Moore's Law has already broken down, and nothing ever keeps growing indefinitely.

Same here, new technology develop fast as its an open field, after some time all the easy discoveries has been made and development slows down.

Often new inventions hang around for decades until they explode and then calms down decades later. New discoveries or new needs might give an second round of rapid inventions.

Space exploration is mainly an issue about money, yes new technology helps cheaper launches too.

[Nibb31]

Technology advances, but the laws of physics stay the same. Which is why, although technology has advanced a lot in the last 50 years, we are still using cars, planes, and rockets that have the same basic architecture. We are a bit blinded by the huge change that computers have brought us, which has brought a much deeper transformation of our world and society than the "space age" or the "atomic age" of our parents and grandparents.

Scientific progress doesn't have to be linear or exponential. There have been times where it has slowed down or even stopped.

A lot of our scientific advance has been due to computer science opening up new horizons in modelization and processing large amounts of data. However, I think that the age of computers is more of a transformation phase than part of an ongoing advancement process. Once the transformation is over, I have the feeling that scientific progress might reach a plateau.

Civilization is going to go through some hard times, with overpopulation, resource issues, climate change... leading to corruption, obscurantism, and war. These are potentially much bigger and diffuse problems than we've ever had to deal with. Looking back at our history as a species, I'm not very optimistic about those problems being solved intelligently and peacefully.

So where will we be going in 100 years? My hunch is that we won't be going anywhere. We will lose interest in physical travel after we have replaced it with safer and cheaper virtual travel. Maybe there will be a manned expedition on Mars by then, but space travel is so inherently hard that I think we will just use probes to build a 3D model of other planets so that we can experience living there without leaving our Oculus Rim VR pods.

[Tommygun]

I think you will see, almost routinely, unmanned space probes to the planets and moons. They will probably all have a few permanent satellites around them for study.

Unmanned rovers and maybe a few subs will be everywhere. They may have sent a number of probes out to Kuiper belt objects by then.

I personally think this period may become the age of the space telescope if not before.

Manned flights will be there, I'm just not sure how much. It depends on how much spare cash governments have around at that time.

The ultra rich will have their space tourism in orbit and on the Moon. I'm OK with that, as they will help pay the R&D for the equipment for later explorers.

[palioxis1248]

Only the planets? In most of my figurations by the 22nd century we've hopped to the nearest stars in the very least.

[Nibb31]

Only the planets? In most of my figurations by the 22nd century we've hopped to the nearest stars in the very least.

Why is that ? We went to the Moon for the last time 40 years ago, and nobody is planning to return there in the next 20 years, let alone go to Mars. The technological leap between interplanetary travel to interstellar travel is tremendous and might not even be possible at all.

[Comrade Jenkens]

Depends on whether the optimists or pessimists get their way...

[kmMango]

Get working on an Alcubierre Drive, NASA!

As for me, I don't think we will be going to A. Centauri this century. I think asteroid mining and vertical farming will be established by then. Assuming we don't self destruct first.

[kmMango]

What will drive us to other planets will be overpopulation. But that's at least 300 years away IMO.

[PakledHostage]

Depends on whether the optimists or pessimists get their way...

All the optimism in the world won't change the limitations of physics, biology, economics, etc. We may come up with innovative ways of working within the restrictions of reality, but we can't change reality. As beautiful as it is, we're stuck on this rock for a long time. The most important thing we can do over the next 100 years is to learn to take better care of our home because there's nowhere else to go. Maybe we'll send increasingly capable robotic missions to visit places around the solar system, but I'd be surprised if we do much more than make brief manned visits to places like the Moon, an asteroid or maybe Mars. 100 years isn't that long a time. Remember that Apollo 11 was 45 years ago this month.

[YNM]

"Where will we go in the next century ?"

Seriously, a century ? That's a long time to decay. I'm thinking that we might be still "not going anywhere" despite all of the efforts, because problems that were small and easy now becomes harder, and a lot of new problems are appearing. We might actually end up having all the innovations just to keep things fine like it was, without any noticeable expansion. Oil reserves goes down, but innovation will ensure that usage is lowering and there are other non-conventional sources (we talk rocketry soo often here, so oil isn't really replaceable - can't see any propellant-less method to get into orbit). Same goes for other reserves, bar land. Exploration of space will still be going, but technology eventually ensures that we don't really need to be there. Society would more or less stays the same - there might be oscillations but it won't change anything. Forget about warp drives and such, star wars lives forever - as a dream.

All will end when the ol' Earth is just too hot for anyone to live on it. Or if doomsday comes first... could be either way.

But don't be pessimistic - if you don't do any work, you'd die faster than if you do. Be passionate instead, future feels the same but looks different.

[SargeRho]

Next century? Hmm. A probe might arrive at another star in the early-mid century.

[PakledHostage]

Next century? Hmm. A probe might arrive at another star in the early-mid century.

Just putting this out there: At its current speed, Voyager would take 40000 years to reach the Proxima Centauri if it were actually headed there (it isn't). Where do you expect that are we going to get the technology to send a probe to any star and have it arrive there within the next 100 years?

[kmMango]

Our grandparents thought the world would end in a nuclear fireball in their lifetimes. The challenges facing us are great, but nothing is insurmountable!

If we can land on Tylo, we can solve climate change:P

[SargeRho]

Just putting this out there: At its current speed, Voyager would take 40000 years to reach the Proxima Centauri if it were actually headed there (it isn't). Where do you expect that are we going to get the technology to send a probe to any star and have it arrive there within the next 100 years?

We already have (most of) the scientific understanding needed to build magnetic sail driven spacecraft, which could accelerate a up to a useful fraction of the speed of light. Or maser-driven photon sails. Or fusion pulse engines, those would be one-way though while a magnetic sails can be used as interstellar parachutes.

Meanwhile Voyager accelerated almost exclusively through gravitational slingshots, it wasn't intended to reach another star.

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/magbeam.html

Magbeams are basically that but on a smaller scale.

You could construct large particle cannons in a low solar orbit with blanket solar arrays and plenty of radiators. Those would then fire beams towards the departing ship, the magnetic sail of which deflects the beam, producing thrust. And if I remember right, they could provide a *LOT* of thrust compared to photon sails.

Edited July 9, 2014 by SargeRho

[kmMango]

I don't mean to shoot down your idea, but nobody would want to pay for that. There needs to be a reason that affects people on Earth for us to go interstellar before we will.

[SargeRho]

I know that. It would either have to be privately funded by a technophile trillionaire, or there would have to be a likely habitable planet at a nearby star.

[PakledHostage]

We already have (most of) the scientific understanding needed to build magnetic sail driven spacecraft, which could accelerate a up to a useful fraction of the speed of light. Or maser-driven photon sails. Or fusion pulse engines, those would be one-way though while a magnetic sails can be used as interstellar parachutes.

How many of those technologies have been demonstrated in space? There's a big difference between concepts on paper and real life space hardware. Remember we're only talking about the next 100 years. Aside from electronics and biotech, how much technological progress has really happened since the Apollo program almost 50 years ago (I'm including the internet in "electronics")? And as kmMango asked, who's going to pay for it? It is far more likely that we'd build a successor to the James Webb telescope or possibly a large telescope on the lunar surface that will be able to resolve greater physical detail of exoplanets and/or perform spectroscopy on their atmospheres than that we'd send a probe to any neighborhood star.

[kmMango]

I think we will create a reason for going to other planets in a few centuries.