Who will go to Mars first?

[megatiger78]

Britain. and it will send the royal navy/marines

[SubzeroSpartan7]

I think that Mars for the near future, as in 30 years, the only way to a manned Mars landing is through international cooperation. There is no way NASA or Roscosmos or ESA alone will do it alone.

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Sorry to our american friends, but I'd call China. More likely to take a chance on something with an 80% chance of success in order to have the prestige of being first. The US and Europe will be too mired in creating an absolute 100% perfectly safe everything to actually launch.

Which seems silly, cos I reckon you could take any group of peeps from the astronaut programme, tell them they can go to Mars next year, but will probably die of cancer within a decade, and I bet they'd all volunteer anyway

With China aiming for a manned Moon landing by 2025, I don't think they will be first. Plus they will also be focusing on construction of their space station at the same time. I see no way they will also have money to fund a Mars mission while funding moon missions and a space station.

[Cirocco]

hope: international coalition, possibly using hardware from private companies such as SpaceX (in fact, any mission more than likely will use at least *some* hardware made by private companies. NASA doesn't build its rockets all by itself, they subcontract a lot of other companies)

more realistic guess: NASA, with SpaceX hardware. I love every space agency out there, but I think through combination of money, experience and wanting to be the first, the Americans have the biggest chance. Others such as India or China aren't far behind, but I'd give the advantage to NASA.

small addendum: it would be kinda hard for SpaceX as a company to be the first on Mars. It's extremely unlikely (though not entirely impossible I suppose) for a single private company to build and produce all the hardware needed for such a mission. Especially without government funding.

Like someone on this thread already mentioned (I forgot the name, sorry): NASA and SpaceX are very much intertwined. SpaceX may be a private company, but it's main (if not only) customer is NASA. And they themselves depend upo NASA facilities for launch.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Cirocco

[Newt]

If NASA does it alone, I doubt it will be much if any SpaceX hardware used. Spacex has a decent LEO rocket, and a decent LEO cargoship, which may sometime soon hold people, too. The may also sometime have a heavy lifter. NASA, incidentally, is working on their own heavy lifter, advertised by NASA as a vehicle that will go to Mars with people on the top. NASA also has the Orion, which is meant to go far beyond LEO, and is perpetually touted as a Mars vehicle. Maybe Spacex will help build some small part. It will be a collaboration, but I would look to the bigger players like Boeing, which has built far more space hardware than Spacex, to build the key parts of the vehicle.

[Cirocco]

If NASA does it alone, I doubt it will be much if any SpaceX hardware used. Spacex has a decent LEO rocket, and a decent LEO cargoship, which may sometime soon hold people, too. The may also sometime have a heavy lifter. NASA, incidentally, is working on their own heavy lifter, advertised by NASA as a vehicle that will go to Mars with people on the top. NASA also has the Orion, which is meant to go far beyond LEO, and is perpetually touted as a Mars vehicle. Maybe Spacex will help build some small part. It will be a collaboration, but I would look to the bigger players like Boeing, which has built far more space hardware than Spacex, to build the key parts of the vehicle.

whoops, my mistake. That was supposed to say "more realistic guess: NASA with commercial (such as SpaceX) hardware ..."

[Kryten]

All NASA hardware is ultimately 'commercial'. They can act as a systems integrator, but they don't actually produce anything.

[Frozen_Heart]

NASA also has the Orion, which is meant to go far beyond LEO, and is perpetually touted as a Mars vehicle.

Orion by itself is not even remotely close to a Mars vehicle, even with a lander on the front. Sticking however many astronauts in a space that small and sending them off for a few years will not end well.

[Alshain]

I vote Earth.

[SubzeroSpartan7]

Orion by itself is not even remotely close to a Mars vehicle, even with a lander on the front. Sticking however many astronauts in a space that small and sending them off for a few years will not end well.

I think part of the plan for a Mars mission is to have a habitat module. They would be insane to put 6-7 people in a space that size. The Mars ship is supposed to be constructed on orbit by several SLS launches. Of course this is subject to change as they are planning to do this in the 2030's which is also subject to change.

[Newt]

Frozen_Heart: My point was more that NASA has everything that Spacex has but more geared to the application; traveling to Mars in an Orion only would probably be like driving around the Earth in a car, without opening the door. Except going to Mars might take rather longer, and you would have to black out all the windows. There will be a habitat module of some sort, but Orion may be used in some roles, such as crew transfer, and Earth return.

[NovaSilisko]

Voted other. NASA and SpaceX cooperating is the way I see it going.