The last invention we'll ever make.

[Beowolf]

Then we have had some singularities already, you mentioned the industrial revolution who is an pretty obvious one looking back, other would be switch from hunter gatherer to civilization.

Other stuff is not an singularity in that it don't transform society fundamentally but increases capabilities like the printing press or internet.

Agreed, by that definition we've been through several: Fire, speech, agriculture, industrialism. I've heard it claimed the bronze age should count, too. Blogger had a bunch of reasons, but the one I remember is invention of money.

Vernor Vinge's original use of that term was because we can't see past a singularity's event horizon. People before one of these world-changing events cannot see what civilization will look like afterwards. That civilization gets shaped by side-effects of side-effects of concepts we don't even have yet, as much as it does by the obvious stuff.

Kurzweil's AI singularity was the one the media noticed. But IMO the singularity we'll fall into the year robots get cheaper than Asian rice farmers is just as scary and may arrive sooner. A bunch of unemployable young men is a traditional recipe for war! Same for if/when a 3D printer can economically print a new iPhone, or if/when a geneticist can sell custom-designed life forms as pets*.

-----

*I'd like a 20-pound housebroken ankylosaur, please.

- - - Updated - - -

Wouldn't it be funny if we invented an all-knowing AI, but nobody ever listened to it?

Not all that funny. Sometimes it gets downright annoying.

//END REPLY

[*Aqua*]

@WestAir

Why would that be funny?

This AI would kill our free will (if there's such a thing). That's a direct consequence of that machine. Also our society, as we know it, will break down. People need to have secrets to be able to live in a community. With this AI there won't be secrets anymore.

[Bill Phil]

Wouldn't it be funny if we invented an all-knowing AI, but nobody ever listened to it?

There was an XKCD comic with an AI that lived in a box... And it happened to like it there.

http://xkcd.com/1450/

Edited February 21, 2015 by Bill Phil

[WestAir]

@WestAir

Why would that be funny?

This AI would kill our free will (if there's such a thing). That's a direct consequence of that machine. Also our society, as we know it, will break down. People need to have secrets to be able to live in a community. With this AI there won't be secrets anymore.

Citation needed?

[*Aqua*]

That's logical reasoning.

An all-knowing AI knows everything by definition, even secrets and the future. So, can a society function where no secrets can be kept secret? The existence of white lies tells me, secrets are needed. The next point is the future: As long as we don't know what will happen, we decide freely what we are going to do. But if we know the future we can't escape that outcome, no matter what we do. That's what I meant with the AI killing our free will.

Edited February 21, 2015 by *Aqua*

[Rakaydos]

Agreed, by that definition we've been through several: Fire, speech, agriculture, industrialism. I've heard it claimed the bronze age should count, too. Blogger had a bunch of reasons, but the one I remember is invention of money.

Vernor Vinge's original use of that term was because we can't see past a singularity's event horizon. People before one of these world-changing events cannot see what civilization will look like afterwards. That civilization gets shaped by side-effects of side-effects of concepts we don't even have yet, as much as it does by the obvious stuff.

Kurzweil's AI singularity was the one the media noticed. But IMO the singularity we'll fall into the year robots get cheaper than Asian rice farmers is just as scary and may arrive sooner. A bunch of unemployable young men is a traditional recipe for war! Same for if/when a 3D printer can economically print a new iPhone, or if/when a geneticist can sell custom-designed life forms as pets*.

-----

*I'd like a 20-pound housebroken ankylosaur, please.

- - - Updated - - -

Not all that funny. Sometimes it gets downright annoying.

//END REPLY

By the standard of "nobody saw what wold happen", I would posit Personal Computers/personal electronics/Smartphones as a singularity. Combined with the creation of Social Media, we basicaly have given anyone who can make a monthly payment the ability to know what other people are saying and doing, anywhere in the world.

[WestAir]

That's logical reasoning.

An all-knowing AI knows everything by definition, even secrets and the future. So, can a society function where no secrets can be kept secret? The existence of white lies tells me, secrets are needed. The next point is the future: As long as we don't know what will happen, we decide freely what we are going to do. But if we know the future we can't escape that outcome, no matter what we do. That's what I meant with the AI killing our free will.

I doubt the outcome of creating a super ai will be that spectacular.

[Bill Phil]

That's logical reasoning.

An all-knowing AI knows everything by definition, even secrets and the future. So, can a society function where no secrets can be kept secret? The existence of white lies tells me, secrets are needed. The next point is the future: As long as we don't know what will happen, we decide freely what we are going to do. But if we know the future we can't escape that outcome, no matter what we do. That's what I meant with the AI killing our free will.

It would have to choose to tell its story.

[magnemoe]

Agreed, by that definition we've been through several: Fire, speech, agriculture, industrialism. I've heard it claimed the bronze age should count, too. Blogger had a bunch of reasons, but the one I remember is invention of money.

Vernor Vinge's original use of that term was because we can't see past a singularity's event horizon. People before one of these world-changing events cannot see what civilization will look like afterwards. That civilization gets shaped by side-effects of side-effects of concepts we don't even have yet, as much as it does by the obvious stuff.

Kurzweil's AI singularity was the one the media noticed. But IMO the singularity we'll fall into the year robots get cheaper than Asian rice farmers is just as scary and may arrive sooner. A bunch of unemployable young men is a traditional recipe for war! Same for if/when a 3D printer can economically print a new iPhone, or if/when a geneticist can sell custom-designed life forms as pets*.

-----

*I'd like a 20-pound housebroken ankylosaur, please.

- - - Updated - - -

Not all that funny. Sometimes it gets downright annoying.

//END REPLY

Fire and speach obiously but that get a bit too far back

bronze probably not, it was never very common, iron was more so, main effect was that bronze required an civilization. Civilization itself probably was at least close to an singularity.

As for robots, this is an pretty floating, lots of robots in China, yes the cost benefit is less than in the west but plenty of uses.

large scale farming has been cheaper than peasants an long time but require larger field sizes and has terrain restrictions and crop restrictions.

3d printers will make low batch sizes cheaper, it will still be more expensive than mass production

[Technical Ben]

That's logical reasoning.

An all-knowing AI knows everything by definition, even secrets and the future. So, can a society function where no secrets can be kept secret? The existence of white lies tells me, secrets are needed. The next point is the future: As long as we don't know what will happen, we decide freely what we are going to do. But if we know the future we can't escape that outcome, no matter what we do. That's what I meant with the AI killing our free will.

Defining an all knowing AI is orders of magnitude much simpler than making an AI that meets that definition.

In fact, it's so much more different than reality, I'll not bother arguing the point further.

[RAINCRAFTER]

If I made the first AI thinking of freewill, I would make it nothing more than a box of computers.

[-Velocity-]

There has been some angst about manufacturing technologies such as 3D printing and perhaps nanotechnologies (though I'm a little skeptical myself on nanotech) giving an individual person access to dangerous capabilities. We're already seeing one of the first starting to come to fruition- 3D-printed guns. What if it were to get far worse? What if a person or small group of individuals were able to make their own nuclear bomb? Or doomsday virus? Or even just a surface-to-air missile? Our ability to keep deadly weapons out of the hands of bad actors is based on how hard it is to manufacture such deadly weapons. But if individual manufacturing fully matures, then we could be a big trouble.

This is where perhaps a superintelligence could come to the rescue. What if we had a superintelligence monitoring us, making sure we were not planning mass destruction or some kind of severe crime? We'd have to sacrifice our privacy, but honestly, what other choice would there be, if the alternative was nuclear, biological, chemical, or simply advanced weaponry, in the hands of thousands of psychos?!? Seriously, what other choice is there? There are thousands- probably millions- of crazies out there who, if given access to a nuclear bomb or deadly virus, would unleash it on the population without hesitation.

Anyway, I donno if this might or might not come to pass. It's just something I've been thinking about for the last year, ever since the NSA scandals broke. People were very angry how their privacy "rights" had been violated, but we're already at a point in history when mass monitoring of citizens is (very) questionably justifiable. What happens if this manufacturing revolution really comes to pass? The only solution I've thought of so far is the complete loss of privacy- perhaps a superintelligence could monitor citizens and raise red flags for human law enforcement. Honestly, I'm not even sure it needs to be a superintelligence. It's just that the last year has seen so much vilification of the NSA and its intelligence gathering mechanisms, and yet, one possible future awaits us where the choice could be either the acceptance of mass surveillance, or the destruction of civilization. I'd take the mass surveillance myself if this future were to come to pass! Make a non-judgemental superintelligence do it.

ANYWAY, I do not want us to discuss the NSA. I said it was questionably justifiable- which is stating the fact that some people believe it is justified, and some people do not. My discussion focuses on a future where it becomes incredibly easy to obtain extremely deadly weapons (like WMDs), and what the impact of that might be on people's attitudes about mass surveillance, and how a super-intelligence might or might not be able to fulfill that role. The NSA "scandals" were simply the inspiration for me considering this- is there in fact a future where mass surveillance becomes vital to the continuing existence of civilization? If only I had the skills of a science fiction writer, I would explore this idea.

Edited February 24, 2015 by |Velocity|

[Bill Phil]

Simple. Control what makes up the objects. Plutonium is rare, so nukes are almost out of the question with 3d printers. And if you're so worried about this, then why don't you ask why all the ingredients to make bombs are available in stores? They're there. And they're easily available. Society hasn't died yet.

[Beowolf]

Plutonium's rare because it has to be made. Uranium's all over, in tiny concentrations. Any nanotech that can manipulate atoms can sort out the U235 present in dirt to build a Hiroshima-style bomb. I don't know how many kilotons or megatons of dirt one has to sort through to acquire a critical mass of U235, but it's going to make a big profileration problem. Even the poorest of nations can get their hands on megatons of dirt. So the only limiting factor will be whether they can get isotope-sorting nanotech.

Slightly richer nations, or groups, could just buy uranium ore and enrich that. But I agree that the current "nuclear club" would clamp down on uranium ore sales pretty quickly once this tech became available.

And, Bill, in the US, stores record and report all significant purchases of those chemicals now. Your location may differ. But the days when one could casually buy a truckload of ammonia fertilizer and powdered aluminum are gone forever here.

edit: No I guess they won't be able to clamp down on uranium ore. I was just looking up uranium mining to see the volume (60k tons/year), and saw there's already a way to easily extract uranium from sea water. It's too expensive to compete with traditional mining right now, but for about US$250,000 you could harvest enough U from the ocean over 8 months to have enough for a bomb...if you had a way to enrich it. Creepy.

Edited February 25, 2015 by Beowolf

[-Velocity-]

Simple. Control what makes up the objects. Plutonium is rare, so nukes are almost out of the question with 3d printers. And if you're so worried about this, then why don't you ask why all the ingredients to make bombs are available in stores? They're there. And they're easily available. Society hasn't died yet.

You're assuming that the future will always be like today. That's silly. We can't make any assumptions about what technologies the future will bring us, except those that are explicitly against the laws of physics.

And no, I'm not worried about these kinds of problems, yet. I'm worried about the day that some futurists envision where the decentralization of manufacturing makes it so anyone can make anything through technologies like 3D printing. I'm also worried about how the continuing revolution in biotechnology and genetics makes it easier and easier and easier for a person to design doomsday bacteria and viruses. These kinds of technologies, taken to their absolute conclusion, could put the capability to manufacture weapons of mass destruction in the hands of thousands or millions of people.

WILL that happen? I donno. Probably not, but maybe. If it were to come to pass though, as I said, the only conceivable solution I have thought of is mass surveillance on a scale that dwarfs what the NSA was/is doing. I think this surveillance might be more practical and palpable to people if it were conducted by a massive super machine intelligence or super artificial intelligence. (I make a distinction between artificial intelligence and machine intelligence. Artificial intelligence, to me, is a machine that appears to be intelligent and aware but is actually not- it is just programmed to appear intelligent under limited circumstances. This contrasts with a general machine intelligence, which is truly sentient and sapient, and can be rightfully considered a person. There could/would be a fine line dividing the two.)

A good analogy would be to steal from your "materials to make a bomb are available in stores" statement. Indeed, they are. Any reasonably intelligent person can build a bomb with today's technologies. And indeed, there are a lot of people building bombs in today's world, even in America. Here's a list I found online of bombings (and some attempted bombings) since just 1970:

 April 15, 2013: Two bombs explode in the packed streets near the finish line of the Boston Marathon, killing two people and injuring more than 80.

 Jan. 17, 2011: A backpack bomb is placed along a Martin Luther King Day parade route in Spokane, Wash., meant to kill and injure participants in a civil rights march, but is found and disabled before it can explode. White supremacist Kevin Harpham is convicted and sentenced to 32 years in federal prison.

 May 1, 2010: Pakistani immigrant Faisal Shahzad leaves an explosives-laden SUV in New York's Times Square, hoping to detonate it on a busy night. Street vendors spot smoke coming from the vehicle and the bomb is disabled. Shahzad is arrested as he tries to leave the country and is sentenced to life in prison.

 Dec. 25, 2009: The so-called "underwear bomber," Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, is subdued by passengers and crew after trying to blow up an airliner heading from Paris to Detroit using explosives hidden in his undergarments. He's sentenced to life in prison.

 Sept. 11, 2001: Four commercial jets are hijacked by 19 al-Qaida militants and used as suicide bombs, bringing down the two towers of New York City's World Trade Center and crashing into the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people are killed in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania.

 Jan 22, 1998: Theodore Kaczynski pleads guilty in Sacramento, Calif., to being the Unabomber in return for a sentence of life in prison without parole. He's locked up in the federal Supermax prison in Colorado for killing three people and injuring 23 during a nationwide bombing spree between 1978 and 1995.

 Jan. 20, 1998: A bombing at an abortion clinic in Birmingham, Ala., kills one guard and injures a nurse. Eric Robert Rudolph is suspected in the case.

 July 27, 1996: A bomb explodes at Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta during the Summer Games, killing two people and injuring more than 100. Eric Robert Rudolph is arrested in 2003. He pleads guilty and is sentenced to life in prison.

 April 19, 1995: A car bomb parked outside the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City kills 168 people and injures more than 500. It is the deadliest U.S. bombing in 75 years. Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols are convicted. McVeigh is executed in 2001 and Nichols is sentenced to life in prison.

 Feb. 26, 1993: A bomb in a van explodes in the underground World Trade Center garage in New York City, killing six people and injuring more than 1,000. Five Muslims are eventually convicted of the crime.

 Nov. 7, 1983: A bomb blows a hole in a wall outside the Senate chamber at the Capitol in Washington. No one is hurt. Two leftist radicals plead guilty.

 May 16, 1981: A bomb explodes in a men's bathroom at the Pan Am terminal at New York's Kennedy Airport, killing a man. A group calling itself the Puerto Rican Armed Resistance claims responsibility. No arrests are made.

 Dec. 29, 1975: A bomb hidden in a locker explodes at the TWA terminal at New York's LaGuardia Airport, killing 11 people and injuring 75. Palestinian, Puerto Rican and Croatian groups are suspected, but no arrests are made.

 Jan. 29, 1975: The U.S. State Department building in Washington, D.C., is bombed by the Weather Underground. No one is killed.

 Jan. 24, 1975: A bomb goes off at historic Fraunces Tavern in New York City, killing four people. It was one of 49 bombings attributed to the Puerto Rican nationalist group FALN between 1974 and 1977 in New York.

 Jan. 27, 1972: A bomb wrecks the New York City office of impresario Sol Hurok, who had been booking Soviet artists. One person is killed and nine are injured, Hurok among them. A caller claiming to represent Soviet Jews claims responsibility, but no arrests are made.

 March 1, 1971: The Senate wing of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., is bombed by the Weather Underground. No one is killed.

 March 6, 1970: Three members of the revolutionary Weather Underground accidentally blow themselves up in their townhouse in New York City's Greenwich Village while making bombs.

Now, imagine that instead of small chemical bombs, those were nuclear bombs, or weaponized airborne ebola, or human-communicable bird flu. Civilization as we know it could not continue to survive if every few years a major city was vaporized or entire countries or regions were wiped out by bio-engineered plagues.

Again, I'm not saying that I certainly believe that this will come to pass in the future. But it's been envisioned as a possibility by many people.

[magnemoe]

You're assuming that the future will always be like today. That's silly. We can't make any assumptions about what technologies the future will bring us, except those that are explicitly against the laws of physics.

And no, I'm not worried about these kinds of problems, yet. I'm worried about the day that some futurists envision where the decentralization of manufacturing makes it so anyone can make anything through technologies like 3D printing. I'm also worried about how the continuing revolution in biotechnology and genetics makes it easier and easier and easier for a person to design doomsday bacteria and viruses. These kinds of technologies, taken to their absolute conclusion, could put the capability to manufacture weapons of mass destruction in the hands of thousands or millions of people.

WILL that happen? I donno. Probably not, but maybe. If it were to come to pass though, as I said, the only conceivable solution I have thought of is mass surveillance on a scale that dwarfs what the NSA was/is doing. I think this surveillance might be more practical and palpable to people if it were conducted by a massive super machine intelligence or super artificial intelligence. (I make a distinction between artificial intelligence and machine intelligence. Artificial intelligence, to me, is a machine that appears to be intelligent and aware but is actually not- it is just programmed to appear intelligent under limited circumstances. This contrasts with a general machine intelligence, which is truly sentient and sapient, and can be rightfully considered a person. There could/would be a fine line dividing the two.)

A good analogy would be to steal from your "materials to make a bomb are available in stores" statement. Indeed, they are. Any reasonably intelligent person can build a bomb with today's technologies. And indeed, there are a lot of people building bombs in today's world, even in America. Here's a list I found online of bombings (and some attempted bombings) since just 1970:

 April 15, 2013: Two bombs explode in the packed streets near the finish line of the Boston Marathon, killing two people and injuring more than 80.

 Jan. 17, 2011: A backpack bomb is placed along a Martin Luther King Day parade route in Spokane, Wash., meant to kill and injure participants in a civil rights march, but is found and disabled before it can explode. White supremacist Kevin Harpham is convicted and sentenced to 32 years in federal prison.

 May 1, 2010: Pakistani immigrant Faisal Shahzad leaves an explosives-laden SUV in New York's Times Square, hoping to detonate it on a busy night. Street vendors spot smoke coming from the vehicle and the bomb is disabled. Shahzad is arrested as he tries to leave the country and is sentenced to life in prison.

 Dec. 25, 2009: The so-called "underwear bomber," Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, is subdued by passengers and crew after trying to blow up an airliner heading from Paris to Detroit using explosives hidden in his undergarments. He's sentenced to life in prison.

 Sept. 11, 2001: Four commercial jets are hijacked by 19 al-Qaida militants and used as suicide bombs, bringing down the two towers of New York City's World Trade Center and crashing into the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people are killed in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania.

 Jan 22, 1998: Theodore Kaczynski pleads guilty in Sacramento, Calif., to being the Unabomber in return for a sentence of life in prison without parole. He's locked up in the federal Supermax prison in Colorado for killing three people and injuring 23 during a nationwide bombing spree between 1978 and 1995.

 Jan. 20, 1998: A bombing at an abortion clinic in Birmingham, Ala., kills one guard and injures a nurse. Eric Robert Rudolph is suspected in the case.

 July 27, 1996: A bomb explodes at Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta during the Summer Games, killing two people and injuring more than 100. Eric Robert Rudolph is arrested in 2003. He pleads guilty and is sentenced to life in prison.

 April 19, 1995: A car bomb parked outside the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City kills 168 people and injures more than 500. It is the deadliest U.S. bombing in 75 years. Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols are convicted. McVeigh is executed in 2001 and Nichols is sentenced to life in prison.

 Feb. 26, 1993: A bomb in a van explodes in the underground World Trade Center garage in New York City, killing six people and injuring more than 1,000. Five Muslims are eventually convicted of the crime.

 Nov. 7, 1983: A bomb blows a hole in a wall outside the Senate chamber at the Capitol in Washington. No one is hurt. Two leftist radicals plead guilty.

 May 16, 1981: A bomb explodes in a men's bathroom at the Pan Am terminal at New York's Kennedy Airport, killing a man. A group calling itself the Puerto Rican Armed Resistance claims responsibility. No arrests are made.

 Dec. 29, 1975: A bomb hidden in a locker explodes at the TWA terminal at New York's LaGuardia Airport, killing 11 people and injuring 75. Palestinian, Puerto Rican and Croatian groups are suspected, but no arrests are made.

 Jan. 29, 1975: The U.S. State Department building in Washington, D.C., is bombed by the Weather Underground. No one is killed.

 Jan. 24, 1975: A bomb goes off at historic Fraunces Tavern in New York City, killing four people. It was one of 49 bombings attributed to the Puerto Rican nationalist group FALN between 1974 and 1977 in New York.

 Jan. 27, 1972: A bomb wrecks the New York City office of impresario Sol Hurok, who had been booking Soviet artists. One person is killed and nine are injured, Hurok among them. A caller claiming to represent Soviet Jews claims responsibility, but no arrests are made.

 March 1, 1971: The Senate wing of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., is bombed by the Weather Underground. No one is killed.

 March 6, 1970: Three members of the revolutionary Weather Underground accidentally blow themselves up in their townhouse in New York City's Greenwich Village while making bombs.

Now, imagine that instead of small chemical bombs, those were nuclear bombs, or weaponized airborne ebola, or human-communicable bird flu. Civilization as we know it could not continue to survive if every few years a major city was vaporized or entire countries or regions were wiped out by bio-engineered plagues.

Again, I'm not saying that I certainly believe that this will come to pass in the future. But it's been envisioned as a possibility by many people.

You have an point, however killings by bombs is dwarfed by killing by guns, bombs are mostly used as they have more of an shock effect.

Now an small bomb mounted on an larger hobby drone is an more scary issue, main benefit is that its pretty hard to make an small and destructive bomb.

We will get plenty of warnings about both this issue and the AI problem.

Capabilities creep down, first only major nations can do something, then minor nations and major companies, then larger groups creeping down to smaller groups and finally one guy alone.

Now the problem is that doing something in the mass destruction category is that it would be the last thing you do, look at the result of 9/11 now imagine the response to something who killed 1000 times more, bioweapons is worse for you as you will hit multiple countries all who want revenge.

Good health advice would be to not be associated to the group any way or be downwind of their major bases.

And they will figure out who is responsible, they find the responsible person / group in almost all cases, an larger organisation will leave more trails.

After 2-3 partial successful attempts of this you have to go very far down in size and up in nuttiness to find someone who even think serious about it, more so as countries will start acting preventive.

Much the same with AI, someone will not suddenly make an smarter than human AI and let it control nukes.

It will be multiple generations of better cheaper and smarter AI, the largest problem I see here is that an AI connected to internet goes postal after an thought out plan.