Planetary Defense Obligation to Future Generations

[Ty Tan Tu]

As I am sure most of you know NASA has a Planetary Defense division that is tasked with tracking potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) like asteroids and comets whose orbits are predicted to bring them within 0.05 Astronomical Units of Earth. They are working on plans to divert PHOs if they threaten to hit Earth. But it seems to me we can not depend of technology to continue on it present trajectory. Human civilization could once more be plunged in to a dark age. So, my question is, do we have a moral responsibility to future generation who may not have the technology to protect themselves? Should we divert PHOs now even though they may not pose a threat for hundreds or even thousands of years into the future? 

[IncongruousGoat]

I'd say no, for a couple of reasons. It seems unlikely that future generations will regress in technology-the possibility of nuclear war decreases as time goes forward (small local bumps notwithstanding), and I can't imagine any natural disaster (other than an asteroid strike) causing substantial permanent technological regression. Furthermore, it'd be really difficult to divert an asteroid right now, and it's very difficult to predict asteroid impacts centuries in advance. So, no, we shouldn't consider ourselves obligated, because the obligation is unlikely to even exist and we can't meaningfully act upon it anyways.

Honestly, the best space-related thing to do for the sake of future generations would be the establishment of self-sustaining off-world colonies, and thereby prevent the kind of technology loss you speak of, among many other things. But that's its own discussion.

[Green Baron]

Hmm, i personally think that the next "dark age" will be self-inflicted by climate change, depth pile up, conflicts, overpopulation, carrying capacity limits, anything else ? :-)

... that said: i think, but may be totally wrong, that the number of newly discovered neos is going down or at least stable on a low level since several years. And from what is known/calculated/estimated/whatever there is nothing to fear in the next several hundred years. So, if at all, then it must be a suddenly appearing asteroid that hasn't yet been noticed (improbable) or something new from high above (tno etc.).

All in all i think phos are less of a danger.

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Green Baron

[DAL59]

All asteroids are technically a threat, do to random nudges and unpredictability.

[kerbiloid]

1 hour ago, Ty Tan Tu said:

NASA has a Planetary Defense division

Spoiler

 

1 hour ago, Ty Tan Tu said:

They are working on plans to divert PHOs if they threaten to hit Earth

Does this division has any real responsibilities?

1 hour ago, Ty Tan Tu said:

Human civilization could once more be plunged in to a dark age.

Not so dark age. It's hard to fall below XIX century.
Just 90% of human civilization. 10% would just become more angry, but still stay industrial.

1 hour ago, Ty Tan Tu said:

do we have a moral responsibility to future generation who may not have the technology to protect themselves?

We have a moral responsibility to force the progress allowing them to solve this problem as soon as possible.

[Bill Phil]

For one thing, the dark ages are a myth. Yes, quality of life began to fall for most of Europe, but that mainly applied to the wealthy. The real issue was that the fall of the Roman Empire prevented large engineering projects (aqueducts, large mines, 7 story apartment buildings, and so on) from being constructed. This was only really a "dark age" for Europe. And, actually, life expectancy slightly increased, since people started to live in large, disease-riden cities less.

If we detect one far enough away, we could pursue an Orion Drive powered vehicle to divert it, worst comes to worse. Desperate times call for desperate measures... assuming we do detect it.

The only issue we have today is that most of our detection telescopes are on Earth, which may not be the best vantage point. If we could put a well sized telescope and many copies into various orbits, we could probably find every threatening asteroid. Well, at least most of them, some would slip through the cracks...

We don't really have a moral obligation to future generations. If anything, the trend is to make their lives slightly worse off over time (don't worry, that may not be the case). I would say that if we want to survive as a species we need to develop effective countermeasures.

Maybe a city killer will have to hit something before governments are willing to create asteroid countermeasures... I would hope not.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Bill Phil