Spaceception

I think SpaceX almost forgot to stream a Starlink launch last night. There were other people talking about it, and the stream replay starts in the middle of ascent.

Block 2 engine, first stage aft section in the background Compared to the Block 1 engine And on the vertical test stand

Okay. So it looks like the forum ate my reponse since I replied right before the forums went down. Luckily, I can see the first part of it in my email notifications. So I'll try to reconstruct/expand it now. But, while Falcon 9 may stop launching Starlink in the near-term future to trade off with Starlink, Falcon 9/Heavy still has plenty of payloads left to fill its manifest, particualrly from government contracts. And those will likely last the longest. It both depends on how much it costs to launch Starship vs Falcon 9/Heavy (currently ~$100 million a stack or so, before the profit margin), and what's being launched to where. LEO/GTO will be the first to be displaced by Starship since those don't require refueling, followed by GEO for select payloads where refueling is an option (dedicated depot in orbit for commercial missions?). Interplanetary will likely take the longest, and may involve a kick stage like Impulse's Helios. I think it'll take until the 2030s for Falcon 9/Heavy to be put on the path for retirement, with government contracts making up the last flights. But we could very well see Starship overtaking Falcon 9 in annual flights before the end of the decade, between taking over for Starlink, flying the occasional comm/govt mission, and performing refueling missions for Artemis, that'll add up quickly. By that point, Falcon 9 will begin to wind down as contracts are shifted over, or exclusively signed to Starship.

NASA's stream will go live in just over an hour

I might barely be able to watch the Europa Clipper launch. It's supposed to launch at 12:06, my first class ends at 12:00, crossing my fingers!

I think it looks interesting, and it does seem capable of exceeding the ISS's capabilities, since it has about 1.3-1.4x the volume of the ISS (rough estimation from limited information we have about its Haven-1 module, and the fact the Haven-2 modules are 5m longer). So it's better than Axiom and Starlab in that regard, which say they can match ISS's capabilities, but have less internal volume, leaving little to no room for more. The one thing that's missing is a dedicated docking bay. As far as I can tell, 2 possible ports are taken up by external payloads and the cupola, leaving 3/4 docking ports around the station for crew and cargo spacecraft to fight over. A docking bay under the station, with 5 docking ports would provide a central area for visiting spacecraft, with the remaining ports being available for redundancy.

Both of SpaceX SHLV's will be flying a day apart. I can't wait for Europa Clipper. Seriously, 2030 is crazy - but I guess I have a goal. Finish my Bachelor before Europa Clipper arrives at Jupiter (I've only been taking 4 classes a semester, might bump it up)

Blue Origin has stated they're looking into cheap vs reusable upper stages, and I wonder if/how much Starship flights are influencing that decision making.

That flight was so smooth, I'm now confident that flight 6 will be later this year. The biggest problem was the flaps are still burning through, but it was better than last time. So I guess we'll have to see if that delays the launch into next year.

We need to invent a space roomba, that can clean the walls, and filter particulates from the air that the vents don't catch.

It may be shaped too much like there's a floor and ceiling from gravity, but the wood is a nice touch, even if it's really thin paneling.

(Not the big contract, just a study) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241007484239/en/Rocket-Lab-Awarded-NASA-Study-Contract-to-Explore-Bringing-Rock-Samples-from-Mars-to-Earth-for-the-First-Time They've been selected for a small contract to study the a new MSR architecture, which will be revealed in the coming months. I think it's great that Rocket Lab is leaning into planetary science, between their Venus mission, the ESCAPADE probes to Mars, and working with Firefly on the landing software for a Lunar rover. Now this.

New Glenn has to launch this year, Vulcan and Ariane 6 did.

I'll be honest, I like this a lot better than Blue Origin as a buyer. Blue has a rocket, Sierra doesn't, and Blue is more incentivised to use ULA's technology and contracts to improve and build on New Glenn instead of keeping up with two production lines. Vulcan has a future (however tenuous) if Sierra buys them, it doesn't if Blue does. I also think it holds certain advantages and an appeal to Sierra if they had their own launch vehicle, since they're going into space stations, cargo/crew access and satellite production, which benefits greatly from only having to pay internal costs, instead of purchasing externally.

This is something to watch out for. Coming out on the 15th Glad to see Blue is becoming more open with info these days, I'll definitely be watching

Is Polaris separate enough to warrant its own thread? Either way, looking forward to this mission, and since SpaceX is using this opportunity to develop better spacesuits, I wonder if we'll eventually see Polaris using suits with their own PLSS instead of needing umbilicals, just a safety tether, since that's likely in the pipeline.

They recently shared a video of the engine hotfiring from another test!

Pictures, now that I can post from my laptop

Stoke has hot-fired their first stage engine! About a 2 second burn, but looking to mature the engine, conduct longer tests, abd build flight stages throughout the year. https://x.com/stoke_space/status/1800498602361622906?t=kYqk_E6baBGvdZrehOpuUA&s=19 https://www.stokespace.com/stoke-space-completes-first-successful-hotfire-test-of-full-flow-staged-combustion-engine/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/stoke-space-ignites-its-ambitious-main-engine-for-the-first-time/

2 minutes, and mentioned a planned flip and burn!

https://www.aerosociety.com/media/23637/efs-day-2-valere-girardin.pdf I don't think this has been shared here, but this is a study for space based solar, using fully reusable rockets developed by Ariane/RFA (page 5). May or may not be funded, but I suppose it's something that they have a concept? https://x.com/KenKirtland17/status/1792995308932063556

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1793998848584794574 https://www.spacex.com/updates/#flight-3-report Still jettisoning the hotstage ring. This has to be a temporary thing, right? Can't be fully reusable if you're intentionally discarding hardware. https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-4 S29 will be attempting a flip and burn (mentioned in the flight timeline), not just a splashdown. Higher confidence in reentry?

Balanced out by how stressful said job would be

Looks like this may have slipped under the radar here, too distracted by the pictures https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-completes-archimedes-engine-build-begins-engine-test-campaign/ tl;dr They're planning to reuse each engine for at least 20 launches (can definitely be increased down the line) Each engine produces 733 kN or 165,000 lbf, for a combined thrust of 1,450,000 lbf, which with its payload capacity, makes it roughly equal to Falcon 9 v1.1 The engine campaign wasn't given details when it'll start or end, but they reiterated a mid-2025 launch date for Neutron. The Archimedes engine is supposed to be very close to a flight article, and they spent extra time to build up all the teams and infrastructure needed for operations, which contributed to a launch delay. Mentioned a completion of the carbon composite structures for the faring panels, stage 1/2 tanks, and stage 1 reusable structure. Arc-Vac is designed to be restarted up to 6 times in space for payload delivery. Mentioned intentionally developing the engine a couple times to be within medium-capability, to lower stress on the engine, extend its operational lifetime, and aid in "[meeting} the rapidly reusability requirements of Neutron." I wonder what kind of average turnaround times they're expecting to achieve, and what kind of record they can set for themselves.

Yeah, and Musk did mention developing a 'jetpack' which is just going to be a fancier looking MMU so they could move around without tether length being an issue. The training for that alone will be interesting. Probably won't get many details or images for quite some time though.