AngelLestat

No, that case is true for the "quality", this mean trying to save cost using cheap materials and low experience employees. But that is not the spacex case. This example is also true but for simple designs.. not for complex designs

We are not hitting any progress wall, that silicon limit was jumped many times with different architectures or technologies, in fact I guess we are progressing more faster now. Artificial Neural Networks found a problem with the cpu performance because like you said is slowing down, but graphic card processors in fact multiply the ANN performance by 20x at the same cost. Now they found this type of architecture in memories that will also boost a lot the speed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wgk4U4qVpNY They also make a new photonic processor that is 50 times faster than silicon 300 gbs. http://news.berkeley.edu/2015/12/23/electronic-photonic-microprocessor-chip/ They also made a new quantum processor using also photons: http://www.gizmag.com/photonic-quantum-computer-chip/38928/ As last, is less hard to make a quantum learning machine ANN structure than a true quantum computer using quantum properties to represent NeuNet mechanics like this: Wave function --> Neuron/Perceptron Superposition (coherence) --> Interconnections Measurement (decoherence) --> evolution to attractor Entanglement --> learning rule Unitary transformations --> gain function So instead making computers to simulate learning machines, we make learning machines that removes all bottlenecks from the beginning. As last, you have also special new hardware architecture for ANN like: http://research.ibm.com/cognitive-computing/neurosynaptic-chips.shtml#fbid=XWBExfjpZAz http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/scp-csd122215.php http://www.gizmag.com/designless-brain-like-chips/39532/ We are in the age of learning machines, these are not computers.

Why? they made almost all with 3d printing. In fact they follow this strategy of get a prototype, test it, then correct errors, redesign, test and continue the cycle again and again since they started with spacex, and they have the cheapest prices. Try to design something in a perfect way since the beginning is a lot more costly.

I would bet that most of those planets (more massive than earth) that are catalogued as in "habitable zone" will be similar to venus in surface temperature. The atmosphere is the main influence in a planet temperature, not the distance to the star. Take a look to this table, without greenhouses gases venus would be colder than earth. Pressure is not a big problem for humans, we can survive without problem pressures from 0.2 bar to 15 bar. We would be able to resist much higher pressures (100 bar) if would not be because the oxygen or nitrogen becomes poison under high pressure, so that gives us a high freedom of choice for atmospheres.

Ok, this is not easy to explain with few words, even less with my english level. For a perfect explanation my only recommendation is to read "The Selfish Gene" from Richard Dawkins, if Darwin would be Newton, then Dawkins would be Einstein, he explains how a simple blind mechanism base on Darwin theory but in this case "gene centered" instead of individual, group or species centered; helps to explain the whole diversity and behavior found in nature feeling the gaps that the normal Darwin theory could not explain. This book not only helps you to understand evolution, in fact is a life changer as many of their readers describe it. Is so powerful that allow me at the age of 17 make some predictions on subjects that I didn't have any knowledge as nutritionism or odontology (between others) that was discovered and proved 15 years later (few years back) for specialist in those areas. Is great to discuss with one of these professional knowing that you are right no matter how low is your understanding in the topic against the current knowledge and methods used by those professionals. That saying.. this is my short way to answer your question. Is not easy to separate with accuracy what comes from our genes and what from our culture and experiences, but is an incredible coincidence that our culture, behavior and feelings are based in what is good for our survival, in other words it follow our evolution human strategy. Different animals has different behavior and strategies, so their morals are based on those strategies. Why you feel empathy for living beings that are more similar to you? Is the same kill a fish or a pig or a chimp? When you hear the pig scream is another clue that it has similar genes to you, that rises your empathy, killing a chimp is more seen as murder. Then not even mention family members or the extreme case "twins". Here you can said that is part of our culture and the way we were teached, which it is also true, but not the only source. In that case why similar animals behave in the same way? Why they also feel empathy for others? Try to think in all the physical and behavioral traits you find attractive in someone else, you will notice that each % of altruism, selfishness, will, and many other traits are all base in the right mix for survival, which many times is different of what we seen as an intelligent decisions. This does not remove the fact that you will always find counter examples... why? Because evolution.. we are all different, that is the key engine of evolution, find the key experiments where a trait may add chances to survive. This also can be explained from the neurology, is pretty obvious if we think in the "taste" example, that all animals will find tasty those foods that are good for them, you may said that this has nothing to do with the brain, just the tongue and smell, but all those sensor connection end up in the brain neurons in a similar interconnection pattern as the one you forge with experiences. In this case evolution found that is good to have some neurons already following a pattern (as guide) that later can be modified or expanded by experiences. This is also true for all connections that comes from all our body sensors, which marks us a basis behavior guide to survive. If we want a case that can be applied to all animals or artificial beings then yes. Evolution is very wise, by millions of years of try and error knows enough to teach the basic principles of what is good or bad. Of course evolution also create a brain which main objective is being able to make choices base on particular circumstances where a dynamic behavior may be the best answer. But is no surprise that the phrase: "if you are not sure what to do, follow your instincts/feelings/heart" is so popular. It needs something for function and interact, but you don't need a "body" for that. A person will develop a consciousness even if he can not move. An AI may be able to search info in internet and generate responses that we can see in a monitor. If it is smart enough it can control the world just making us believe that the thing it tell us to do are in our benefic. No in case that artificial neurons function in similar way and speed than natural neurons, but not sure what is your point. Haha, but all the things than NN learned to do in just 1 or 2 years, in the past take us 10 to 20 years of coding and we only reach less than 1/3 of the success than NN achieved. NN started to be popularized only 4 years ago when was discovered that graphic cards boost their efficiency by 20x. Yeah, but a machine may choose if saves info in a NN way or in the basic way.

But artificial learning machines will be nothing alike to humans or animals. First big difference.. we already have a brain structure which determines a big part of our behavior, for example the root of our morals. Genes tend to care on their genes copies, this mean that an animal will feel that is very important to take care of a twin because it shares the 100% of its genetics. The same for their child's or parents which shares 50% of genetics, or it also feels empathy for those who look similar (because then there is a chance that some of your genes are find in those bodies), with the exception of those animals who had a lot of childs which better strategic is save yourself because you have more chance to make more copies than your child's. We also have genetic codes for taste behavior, which tell us what might be good or bad to eat. Then we have our nervous system to tell us what injure is bad or not so bad, plus many other behaviors relate to sex, danger, get food, or all the basic things that "we" or animals needs to survive and reproduce. Second big difference.. An AI does not need a body, it may have one, but it does not need it. Its structure is base on connections that reach the speed of light, this mean 1 million times faster than neurons. Neurons connections needs to be with other neurons that are relative close, artificial neurons can connect with those who need to be connected, this mean that you don't need the same amount of neurons than a human brain to achieve the same. An AI can use different types of "already trained Neural Networks", there are already trained NN to translate, recognize and speak almost any language, there are NN to recognize objects and actions in images, the same for hundreds of other NN already trained in different task, all those are just tools for an AI which does not need to waste time learning. Third big difference.. They dont forget anything, they can read a book in no time.. or even anything in internet, The NN Watson win the Jeopardy contest reading and understanding everything in the wikipedia. We still did not create an artificial "conscience", but if we do, it would not be bound to our personal limits. We are not able to understand ourselves sometimes, no even try with an AI. What it would be for the AI wait for our response? What kind of feelings may develop from its perspective? We are not so far to create an Hard AI (10 or 40 years), but still don't have a clue or an idea of how to control or understand this power. In fact, if someone think that it can control it, then is the worst person for that job.

But that is a mistake.. because you dont really "code" an AI, you just set up the structure and then it learns by itself. Then what it learns, nobody can know it, neither their thoughts. I am not saying that they will be bad or good, but not matter what they are, the outcome is unpredictable and our final philosophical destiny "discouraging".

Why it matters? It only will take 10 to 20 years to go from chimp intelligence to God. I don't want to die of course, but the lack of predictive future or destiny that an accelerate progression evoke, is something that our brain will reject. This also suggest a "lack of purpose" no matter the outcome. And all this has to do with the creation of the first Hard IA.

I know that, but at least that is not what they are advertising in this video. They are shown themselves as the best future global provider. Maybe that is the reason why they have so many dislikes? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emmeil-0u5k

Of course, nobody is saying that falcon 9 (as it is) will be the final version and would achieve 10x or 20x reusability. They are in development stage, but there is no doubt (at least for me) they will get it, in 2 years or 4 years... Doesn´t matter, what really matters is that "it can be done", I don't see any future problem (with materials, physics or economics) that can not be solve in the very short term. Why nobody did it before? Because nobody had the economic need, neither the vision or talent or the encouragement to do it. They have nothing to worry about? Let's imagine two men head to head in a cowboy scene trying to fix their own gun and to shoot each other. At the beginning you see that his gun does not work at all, then you see that it works, but its accuracy is super bad, then in the next attempt you see that the bullet was very close to you... and your gun still does not work or even exist. You are not worry? Yeah they will be able to launch some nasa contracts, but forget compete for commercial launches. The only way they can compete, it is if they go back to the design table, and make a new design that improves or at least match the goals of the falcon9.

I never play Assasin creed, but Genetic memory Is a real thing.. Some scientists found that mouses for example can imprint traumatic experiences in their genetics that carries through at least two generations. There are also other studies on different animals. http://www.nature.com/news/fearful-memories-haunt-mouse-descendants-1.14272

Even if we know the orbit, distance and star type, is kinda pointless to speculate on habitability when we still lack the data about their atmosphere and the % of water in that atmosphere. A planet at jupiter or uranus distance may be great for humans if it has a deep atmosphere with high % on greenhouse gases. The same for a planet that is close to the star, but it reflects mostly all the heat before is trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Tidal lock planets may allow also habitability no matter their distance to the star, because they may have a zone when the temperature will match our requirements. So, all that comparison that scientist do about exoplanets and what might be more habitable just focusing in their orbits, is a waste of intellect.

Is not a 30% :P, but wherever... Lets said you have a big cost in planning and all the other things you said. If you launch rockets more often all those cost goes down because is not the same launch 1 rocket every 2 months when you are still testing all the systems, than launch 2 or 3 rockets by month when you already have a lot of experience and practice in all those procedures. Because at the end, it all resume to a simple check of the stages, relocation, assembly, a more automated planning system, refuel the rocket, and launch. Then you repeat the process. Those are the things that Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell (between others) knows, in the same way they knew (time ago) how to improve all the process and systems to reduce the rocket launch cost to 1/3 of the current launch for that time. They dont need to produce all the time falcon stages or parts, they have other rocket designs and future parts to manufacture, the same for other business to come. They know how to take advantage of their employees. We had this same discussion over and over since 2013 I think.. I already explain you with plenty of details how satellites will become cheap and demand will increase with many other applications for space, with possible strategies that elon musk may take to improve that, in fact two year after those explanations, all the constellations plans from different companies started to appear, with cheap sats using cheap manufacture techniques. Still you are unable to see the evidence that is in front of your eyes, because you keep applying a old space logic that already fail. Why you would do that? Why try to fix something that is not broken.. In fact, there is more chances to broke something in that "vigorously inspection" than without it. There are a lot of maybe there. Or maybe... they don't have a clue how they do that, in the same way they didn't have a clue how spacex cut the prices more than half without reusability. So their solutions was come out with a very weird helicopter stunt method to recover the engine, which in fact it needs an extra joint and stage that adds complexity. mmm.. I am still trying to figure out this strategy that it is already 7 years delay vs the competence. maybe.. is just another silly excuse to keep receiving money from the government. Ok do the same (show the source) where it said that spacex merlin needs heavily refurbished after the static fire test.

For what I understand, is saying that it needs 4x that tank volume in fuel to reach the same deltav, to accomplish 8.5kms for the sheppard´s payload instead 3.5kms Not sure if this takes into account the extra engine weight or an extra stage.

80% or 90% is employees.. it depends on how you see it, but that is the wrong approach to understand the real stage booster cost. So, not sure if you are including the developing cost of falcon heavy, dragonv1, dragonv2 and the MLC in your employees count, or you are just counting the raw material cost which; of course, you need employes + energy to convert that raw material into an engine or a different piece. Elon musk said that the cost of the first stage is 3/4 of the whole rocket cost, which seems more accurate than the analysis made for NASA in 2011, which they assume it is 40% of the rocket cost. THen you need to add your profits, but if you can increase your demand, you will decrease your profits to hit a punch to your competence stealing them clients, this is a clear sign that you are the king of the industry, which also attracts more private investments. They can't, their whole company structure and procedures should have a big change for this to happen. They were very comfortable over these past years without real competence getting huge paids for space vehicles without any new tech development (because nobody demanded), now they are not only behind in tech, they also can not imitate the cost efficiency from spacex. In 5 years, after some billions of development on its vulcan rocket, at higher production cost, they will be starting to test it, meanwhile recovering the first stage for spacex will be ordinary and they will be trying to recover their second stage and launching many rockets by year. If I were you, I will not put many hopes in the ULA horse. Is fat and old.

I said this: "they can also avoid some taxes that normal companies can't. ". And that is true. Installing km of optic wire and antennas, each one with its respective permission and dealing with different tax prices depending the country and with locals that might be not too happy to have an antenna at 100m from their houses. All this requires a lot of time and money from the company until they reach an agreement, and they have a lot of surface activities with a lot of tax associated. The other way is easier... you wanted or not? The sats are already flying above you, extra competence might force local companies to reduce their prices. Which it take us to the next point, these "surface" companies will only provide service in dense populated zones, because build km of network in places where the population density is low, is a waste of money. So these companies can not compete in those locations. And again... So what if is a niche service? any internet provider is a niche because they all work locally, and you may have more than 50000 providers in the world.. all with their small niche. In this case you have your constellation with a user limits, if that number is enough to cover the investment and provide profit, then fine.. you do that. They will provide end user service, that is the main idea for all the companies. You may have some fast point access over the globe, this may be using the same 4g or using lasers, which they would also work to release congestion and speed up some connections. That is something they can also charge for. Having just one service instead an average of different speeds is silly, that is not the best way to exploit each second of your hardware power. And again, both are providing different services and needs, so there is plenty of room for many space base ISP.

The ISP it will be given by the exhaust velocity that the mirrors can achieve. Not sure if the mirrors mass matters or not in this scenery. It also depends on how you get your light-power source. I draw a different concept but taking advantage from the same bounce here. This guy also thought in something similar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Gr3UtCaREY

But a 747 only receive maintenance after 200 or 300 trips. And the cost may be lower than the testing cost from when is new. So I don't think that is the industry he is talking about.

They won't.. but each technology will have their place.. Today internet providers can not offer the services and advantages that I mention with internet from space. These constellations will have another advantage, they don't need market permissions from their respective countries, they can also avoid some taxes that normal companies can't. Meanwhile in some places we don't have even 56kbs of internet connection. I guess you are imagine that your personal situation and needs are equal to anybody else in the world. This spaceSat can be done in few years, tell me how much time it will take to connect by wire and antennas the whole world. Bargaining with different country policies and dictatorships, and you will never will fix the latency problem or the cost to use other companies antennas or networks. Africa has 3g pretty everywhere?? Ok.. is time you take some vacations out of the luxury hotels. Argentina is much more highly developed than any African country, and we can focus in its most developed state "Buenos Aires" and still there is more than 70% of the surface without signal. http://opensignal.com/coverage-maps/Argentina/ Even those places you see in red, there are many days that you don't have signal or the speed connection is terrible.

This example is taken from? When you said "in the aerospace industry", you are talking of how things was done in the Shuttle age? But this is a new change of perspective and tech, so you can not keep talking from the old aerospace industry. We still need to hear the spacex review from the recovered stage, but my prediction is that the need for refurbish and testing will be less than a 3% of the total cost of the stage once they made extra testing (2 years from now), in fact a new stage will need more testing than a recovered stage.. (remember what happen with the falcon9 explosion). Some might choose a new one, some others will see willingly the half price plus know that the stage work before. This also means that spacex will be able to launch more rockets by year.

Someone knows if this mod is working in the 1.05 version?

I have some things to add to what codepoet said. Most of the cost of the falcon 9 first stage comes from materials, assembly, testing and the chance of failure. When you buy something new, you are not 100% confident that it would work. It may have a manufacture problem or it may be damaged in your way home or you could do something wrong in the installation. That is why the first time we test something new there are high uncertainties. Then the chance of failure is an extra that the company needs include in overall cost. But if you already test it some times, you will be almost 100% sure that next time will work too. Even with those products that had a lot of wear in each use (if you realize few inspections before). At the beginning, taking into account in the uncertainty that a client might have in use a recovered stage to launch their sat, spacex can offer these launches at half the price. This has also an effect in the overall cost of the sat. Because the client may reduce the quality and testing cost of the sat because in case it fails, they can launch another at a similar cost that if it was launched by normal means. That is when a revolution on the cost reduction starts by a feedback cycle in each section evolved in the overall Sat cost.

It may be, but you can design an ion propulsion Tug where you can attach 30 or 40 of these sats to easy locate them in their respectives orbits.

As I said, you can not compare at the same cost. Here you can remplace your house internet, your cellphone company in just one service who works in any place of the world. This mean that rich people from the cities may be interested, people that needs to travel to remote location and remains connected, and people who has not other way to have an internet connection in their home.. I would said that you have a big population % that match that description and it will be ok to purchase the service even at higher cost (of course you can have also a cost depending in the connection speed you purchase), this mean high speed for those who needed and low speed for those who don't care. Is like GPS, you dont need to make connection with just the sat that is up in your head, you can make connection with other that are in a different angle. As you said people in the city may not need this service so much because they have other ways, so it would not be so much people in those areas either. Lower orbits will just improve just a little the local internet connections (servers in your same location). It will be more expensive, of course, but more expensive is try to reach internet to those location in a different way. With falcon heavy the cost to orbit will be cheap enough, even without reusability. You can launch a lot of these sats in just one flight. But as you said, the world is bigger than that (well not sure if all US citizens understand this), but you also have reporters, businessman, adventurers, or all kind of people that might be ok paying extra to be always connected.

I will answer just this.. Yeah, I dont see any trouble with physsics. It has the half of the moon diameter, so its volume is many times lower. Then is all full of air, even if you use steel for each internal wall, you will have lower average density than expanded polystyrene. This mean that your surface gravity will be 0.01 or less. (I am just stipulating, it does not worth to do the math). That amount of gravity does not generate any structural problem, even less if you use future materials that are lighter and stronger.