Will we be able to buy our own ship?

[daniel l.]

The Skylon cargo spaceplane has the capability of carrying a lot of stuff into orbit, What if its cargo bay was stuffed with small cheap manned spacecraft designed only for orbital travel, So as that people may buy their own for the price of a fancy car and use it to explore the hundreds of civilian stations in LEO that i imagine will exist by 2060

This spacecraft would be just like a car, In that it would be fast and reliable, But still enough DeltaV to explore LEO for a 2 days unrefueled, The life support would last 2 weeks and it could hold 3-5 passengers.

[MrZayas1]

Well I don't forsee this being available in the near future (3-5 years from now) but I am pretty certain it might be possible maybe twenty or thirty years from now when fusion power is invented. Right now, a plane ticket for me, based on the projected 650E/kg is 34450$, because I weigh about 117 pounds, or 53 kilos (and converting euros to dollars). And that is just a Skylon space ticket. Based on chair standards, an optimal person's sitting position is 4.4 feet tall and 3.08 feet wide from the facial view, and about 1.3 feet from the side view. Using these values we can infer that one person takes up about 17.6 feet cubed of space (check the maths please, I haven't taken geometry yet. ) Obviously this is just a calculation, that if we were going to put a person in the cockpit, that is the maximum amount of space we would need. Moving on, if we were to squeeze as many people from left to right inside the cargo bay of the Skylon, we could fit about 3 people from left to right using optimal spacing, though it might be a small squeeze. Now, since the average person weighs roughly 83(ish) kilos, it would be 251 kilos with all three, average weight people. The water the people to need for 3 weeks is as follows: 2.2L per person per day X 3 people X 7 days a week X 3 weeks = 138.6 liters =138.6 kilograms.

So up to this point we have found out that one person with plenty of space around them takes up a volume of about 17.6 ft cubed, and you can most likely fit 3 people from left to right inside the cargo bay. These 3 people would weigh approximately 251 kilograms, along with 138.6 kilograms for water needed for the people to drink (excluding food.) So, for just the people it would weigh about 389.6 kilos or 0.3 metric tonnes. We are looking good so far yes?

So a few more calculations. Let's say we have about 12 tons of vehicle, just putting it out there, for everything, life support, engines, food, water, and other electronic and measurement utilities needed for space travel. 12.3 tons for 3 people in one very light spacecraft. So using your estimates, we will say that there is a VASIMR engine powering our amazing future spacecraft. The weight of the spacecraft is 12.3 tons fuelled and 12 tons empty and the Specific Impulse of a VASIMR is let's say 8,000 at medium operating thrust. So, let's use the Delta-V equation to find out the Delta V of our spaceship, using 300 kg of fuel. So, after some calculator tinkering our good value is, well a whopping 197.5 m/s of delta V. Let's trade the tonnage for fuel, let's say that the starting weight is 12.3 and the empty weight is 10.4. Much better, about 1342.34 m/s of Delta-V. Thats with about 15% of the mass of the spacecraft being fuel. Perhaps the argon is in it's liquid state to conserve volume, or it is highly compressed to say that we are safe.

Sadly, we don't really have an average percentage which tells us the average % of fuel mass out of the whole rocket, but this is a sophomore trying to do math soo, yeah.

Calculations end up to be 12.3 ton vehicle, with optimum space for seating, compressed life support systems (to track with time), weight of water, fuel, etc. with 1.3 km/s of delta-v if my calculations are correct. I am stepping out on a limb here, maybe I forgot a value here and there but yes you have a wide, fuel efficient vehicle to get around in space in, and also a pretty hefty launch price of 8,585,400$ to launch your spacecraft, even with Skylon's boasted 868$/kg price tag. That's not including the cost of the spacecraft, which involves development and other factors that WE WILL NOT EVEN GUESS AT.

So, it probably won't be you or I that comes even close to buying a spacecar, or spacecraft, in this case, but it will definitely be a helluvalot cheaper than it is today, which hopefully comes with the development of Skylon. If you would like to check my calculations or see what I missed, then please do, Im not very good at the maths XD

[Slam_Jones]

Well, i like to think about it this way: in 20 or 30 years, we will have road cars capable of traveling as fast as a modern F1 car (assuming steady rate of tech advancement). Also, a supercomputer 20 years ago is but a calculator compared to an average home PC today.

As technology continues to grow and get refined, the fun stuff that comes with it gets better. People will absolutely have single-seater sport spaceships some day... but whether that's in our lifetime remains to be seen.

[Elthy]

in 20 or 30 years, we will have road cars capable of traveling as fast as a modern F1 car

They would be capable to be that fast right now, but thats not wanted for lots of reasons: Security, fuelefficency (that will be even more important in the future), price, roads... Even in germany a 300km/h car is useless.

[Bill Phil]

If a million people donate 10 US Dollars, you have 10 million US dollars. Now, we just need a lot more people, and maybe space could then be easier to get to in terms of money.

Edited April 1, 2015 by Bill Phil

[sal_vager]

Guys, topics, stay on them.

As for the topic, I think this is realistically much further into the future than when(if) the Skylon flies, you'd be talking Elite levels of technology before you can walk into a dealership and buy a new ship.

[daniel l.]

Guys, topics, stay on them.

As for the topic, I think this is realistically much further into the future than when(if) the Skylon flies, you'd be talking Elite levels of technology before you can walk into a dealership and buy a new ship.

I wasnt thinking of a starship, Rather a small craft meant only for orbital travel between space stations. The deltaV would not be much other than enough for Orbital rendezvous.

[vger]

Even the idea of flying cars (IF we had the tech) seems unlikely now. We've got too many idiots wanting to turn flying machines into death missiles.

[magnemoe]

The Skylon cargo spaceplane has the capability of carrying a lot of stuff into orbit, What if its cargo bay was stuffed with small cheap manned spacecraft designed only for orbital travel, So as that people may buy their own for the price of a fancy car and use it to explore the hundreds of civilian stations in LEO that i imagine will exist by 2060

This spacecraft would be just like a car, In that it would be fast and reliable, But still enough DeltaV to explore LEO for a 2 days unrefueled, The life support would last 2 weeks and it could hold 3-5 passengers.

The spaceship would be more like an private jet also in price level. Most would also probably be rented, they will have plenty of use but also lots of downtime.

For this to be relevant you would need to have multiple stations, even if doing orbital operations it would hardly be an marked for this.

At least the higher dV versions might be an modular design as many know from KSP, drive module, passenger cabin with life support if not used as an tug, then an extra module who might be more living space for longer missions, more seats for short, eva facilities and arm for repair or inspections.

How heavy will this be? well an dragon pod has the required capacity and life support in one module except solar panels, you don't need reentry capability at least not more than dragon1 and this is an additional safety feature. replace trunk with the drive module.

- - - Updated - - -

Even the idea of flying cars (IF we had the tech) seems unlikely now. We've got too many idiots wanting to turn flying machines into death missiles.

Lots of private planes from stuff who is mostly an hang glider with and engine, seat and wheels up to 747.

Also plenty of aircar ideas, problem is that if its not vtol you can just as well drive to your plane.

Safety is mostly an issue because if an good aircar comes into sale lots of people who can afford it will buy it this will increase the small plane activity a lot.

Noise from an vtol aircar is also an issue, however you can drive to an take off area who do not need an runway, requirement would be non residential.

[Nibb31]

The Skylon cargo spaceplane has the capability of carrying a lot of stuff into orbit

Skylon has been vaporware for the last 20 years. There are very little chances that Skylon makes economical sense. See the other threads on Skylon, I don't want to derail this one.

What if its cargo bay was stuffed with small cheap manned spacecraft designed only for orbital travel, So as that people may buy their own for the price of a fancy car and use it to explore the hundreds of civilian stations in LEO that i imagine will exist by 2060

Even if it brings the cost of a launch down to $1 million (which is far more optimistic than anyone's wildest estimations), it can only carry 10 tons, so if your "mini space cars" are something like 3 tons (which is less than a Gemini spacecraft), it would still cost each one $300.000 to get to orbit.

You can only make space affordable through mass-production. Add the cost of the "space car" and its magical power source with the dV required to get from the release orbit to the space station (including plane changes), and the payment of space station fees (the stations are not going to be cheap to build), and it's going to be a billionnaire's hobby (assuming there is anything interesting up there for billionnaires to do on a regular basis), which rules out mass-production, which rules out affordability.

Getting to orbit will always be expensive, even with fantasy propulsion, because the amount of energy required to accelerate something the size of a car from 0 to 27000km/h is enormous. Enormous amounts of energy tend to require enormous infrastructure, shielding, channeling, and some way to convert that energy into actual thrust. None of that can be cheap or available to average consumers because the possibility of accidents, mishaps, or foul play is just too big. The average Joe won't be allowed to handle that sort of power if it could wipe out an entire neighbourhood, just like you aren't allowed to build a fertilizer plant or a hydrogen storage facility in your back yard.

This spacecraft would be just like a car, In that it would be fast and reliable, But still enough DeltaV to explore LEO for a 2 days unrefueled, The life support would last 2 weeks and it could hold 3-5 passengers.

Sounds like fiction, not science.

I wasnt thinking of a starship, Rather a small craft meant only for orbital travel between space stations. The deltaV would not be much other than enough for Orbital rendezvous.

Why would people want to travel between multiple stations? What would there be to do up there on multiple stations that can't be done on one station? I can see that there might be some to appeal for rich folks to go to a space hotel once or twice in their life, spend a few days having zero-G parties and gazing out of a port hole, and then come back down once they are bored. I don't see the use of privately owned runabouts to go from station to station.

Edited April 1, 2015 by Nibb31

[cpast]

I can't see a personal spacecraft being cheaper to operate than a private plane. Those are not cheap (to put it lightly; for context, a brand-new midsize luxury car seems to cost around the same as a 40-year-old small Cessna, which will have higher fuel and maintenance costs than the car).

[daniel l.]

Skylon has been vaporware for the last 20 years. There are very little chances that Skylon makes economical sense. See the other threads on Skylon, I don't want to derail this one.

Even if it brings the cost of a launch down to $1 million (which is far more optimistic than anyone's wildest estimations), it can only carry 10 tons, so if your "mini space cars" are something like 3 tons (which is less than a Gemini spacecraft), it would still cost each one $300.000 to get to orbit.

You can only make space affordable through mass-production. Add the cost of the "space car" and its magical power source with the dV required to get from the release orbit to the space station (including plane changes), and the payment of space station fees (the stations are not going to be cheap to build), and it's going to be a billionnaire's hobby (assuming there is anything interesting up there for billionnaires to do on a regular basis), which rules out mass-production, which rules out affordability.

Getting to orbit will always be expensive, even with fantasy propulsion, because the amount of energy required to accelerate something the size of a car from 0 to 27000km/h is enormous. Enormous amounts of energy tend to require enormous infrastructure, shielding, channeling, and some way to convert that energy into actual thrust. None of that can be cheap or available to average consumers because the possibility of accidents, mishaps, or foul play is just too big. The average Joe won't be allowed to handle that sort of power if it could wipe out an entire neighbourhood, just like you aren't allowed to build a fertilizer plant or a hydrogen storage facility in your back yard.

Sounds like fiction, not science.

Why would people want to travel between multiple stations? What would there be to do up there on multiple stations that can't be done on one station? I can see that there might be some to appeal for rich folks to go to a space hotel once or twice in their life, spend a few days having zero-G parties and gazing out of a port hole, and then come back down once they are bored. I don't see the use of privately owned runabouts to go from station to station.

2 tons are probably fine for a small craft, being that they wouldn't need any science instruments like a NASA craft, propulsion would be plasma most likely because it provides a balance of thrust and efficiency,

And as for the reason for station hopping, why move from one city to the other? Because that place has something that the current area doesn't.

[TMS]

The thought of this frightens the life out of me.

Dave Dimwit, coming in to land...

[Nibb31]

2 tons are probably fine for a small craft, being that they wouldn't need any science instruments like a NASA craft, propulsion would be plasma most likely because it provides a balance of thrust and efficiency,

In a fantasy world, maybe. In real life, "plasma propulsion" isn't a thing. You might be talking about SEP, but that is low thrust which would make transfer times unsuitable for manned vehicles. It also needs a power source which is bound to make it more than 2 tons.

And as for the reason for station hopping, why move from one city to the other? Because that place has something that the current area doesn't.

But cities are cities. People travel to cities visit places, see friends and relatives, or to work. It's going to be a long while before people actually live and work permanently in orbit, if ever, because there is nothing that can be done there that can't be done cheaper on Earth. You're assuming a future where there is suddenly a reason to have hundreds of people working in space, a political/economical motive to build space colonies, mass-produced space cars, and a new magical propulsion system. Those are some wild assumptions.

Even if that was true, orbital space stations would typically be in different orbits, at different inclinations. Therefore the quickest/cheapest way to get from one orbit to another would be to return to earth and relaunch on the next shuttle flight. If they were in the same inclination, it might make sense to have shuttles to transfer people from one to the other. No way would people ever need to own a personal space craft for the same reason most people don't need to own a ferry boat or a fighter jet.

I repeat: that's fiction, not science.

Edited April 1, 2015 by Nibb31