NASA wants to send humans to Jupiter in the 2040s

[_Augustus_]

Omg:

Particular targets are Europa, due to its potential for life, and Callisto, due to its relatively low radiation dose.In 2003, NASA proposed a program called Human Outer Planets Exploration (HOPE) that involved sending astronauts to explore the Galilean moons.NASA has projected a possible attempt some time in the 2040s.^[75] In the Vision for Space Exploration policy announced in January 2004, NASA discussed missions beyond Mars, mentioning that a "human research presence" may be desirable on Jupiter's moons.Before the JIMO mission was cancelled, NASA administrator Sean O'Keefe stated that "human explorers will follow.

I've found several other references to a manned Callisto landing in the 2040's. So exciting!

So, by calculating transfer windows, here's the timeline I've come up with from the late 2010s to the late 2040s that assumes that NASA funds the HAVOC missions, using the planned Orion launch windows and those provided by AngelLestat, in addition to a few Jupiter launch windows I found:

=========================================================

September 30, 2018: An unmanned Orion is launched around the Moon.

2020: The automated ARM vehicle retrieves a boulder from ARM's target asteroid and puts it into retrograde lunar orbit.

Early 2021: EM-2 completes a rendezvous with the asteroid boulder and returns a few weeks later.

August 15, 2023: EM-3 is launched to the Moon.

August 18, 2023: EM-3 lands on the Moon. A few days later it returns to Earth.

November 10, 2021: EM-4 is launched to Venus.

March 2, 2022: EM-4 arrives at Venus.

June 9, 2023: EM-5 is launched to Venus.

June 25, 2023: EM-4 departs from Venus.

September 29, 2023: /EM-4 arrives at Earth and is recovered.

October 15, 2023: EM-5 arrives at Venus.

2024: EM-6 visits the Moon.

January 21, 2025: EM-5 departs from Venus.

April 27, 2025: EM-5 returns to Earth. This concludes all Orion missions until 2032 to save up money for the Mars & Jupiter Orion programs.

2032: EM-7 is launched to Mars.

2033: EM-7 orbits Phobos and Mars.

2034: EM-7 returns to Earth.

2037: EM-8 is launched to Mars.

2038: EM-8 orbits Deimos and Mars.

2038: EM-9 is launched.

2039: EM-8 returns to Earth.

2039: EM-9 lands on Phobos and Mars.

2040: EM-9 returns to Earth.

Early 2041: EM-10 is launched to Jupiter.

Late 2049: EM-10 arrives at Jupiter and lands on Callisto.

Mid-2050: EM-10 departs from Jupiter.

Early 2057: EM-10 returns to Earth.

============================

Considering the rate of development here, I wouldn't be surprised if there were missions to Saturn, Titan, and Enceladus by 2070.

Edited April 19, 2015 by _Augustus_

[Bill Phil]

Getting about a hundred tonnes to Jupiter will either take a bigger launcher, a lot of time, or a very big in orbit construction project.

So, more like 6+ years to Jupiter...

[_Augustus_]

Getting about a hundred tonnes to Jupiter will either take a bigger launcher, a lot of time, or a very big in orbit construction project.

So, more like 6+ years to Jupiter...

Really once they have deep-space hab modules it can take as much time as they want.

[Bill Phil]

Really once they have deep-space hab modules it can take as much time as they want.

But I doubt less than 5. That takes a lot of energy.

[AngelLestat]

Can you post your sources??

[SeaDog]

Really once they have deep-space hab modules it can take as much time as they want.

It's funny how technology that does not yet exist always seems so simple. Get back to me when we actually have closed eco systems that can support a number of astronauts for many years. Then we can discuss how to fit that on a space ship that's too far from the sun to use direct solar energy.

[Kryten]

This is just a mish-mash of obsolete strategy documents (Mostly Bush's VSE) and a few studies. None of it represents a real plan, and there's frankly no realistic prospect of this happening.

[Moon Goddess]

Notice the plan is named H.O.P.E

yeah....

I'm sure NASA would love to do that, but they can't even get funding for the moon lander which is 4th on that list, so yeah it's a hopeful list, but that's all it is just hope.

[Bill Phil]

Notice the plan is named H.O.P.E

yeah....

I'm sure NASA would love to do that, but they can't even get funding for the moon lander which is 4th on that list, so yeah it's a hopeful list, but that's all it is just hope.

Which is a very sad thing....

We'll never get to any other celestial body in this century, by my estimate. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though!

[xenomorph555]

This isn't happening, period. I can't express how much this isn't happening so I'll outline why.

"Particular targets are Europa, due to its potential for life, and Callisto, due to its relatively low radiation dose.In 2003 (been a while), NASA proposed (doesn't carry much weight) a program called Human Outer Planets Exploration (HOPE) that involved sending astronauts to explore the Galilean moons.NASA has projected a possible attempt some time in the 2040s.[75] In the Vision for Space Exploration policy announced in January 2004, NASA discussed missions beyond Mars, mentioning that a "human research presence" may be desirable on Jupiter's moons.Before the JIMO mission was cancelled (more dead than constellation), NASA administrator Sean O'Keefe stated that "human explorers will follow."

Currently this is nothing more then a pipe dream.

[FishInferno]

The problem is that NASA seems to only be interested in planting a flag, saying we did it, and have a giant parade. I think that it is very important to have a good colony going on Mars before we depart to Jupiter. This is why I think that SpaceX is a better idea than NASA's program, because they are looking far into the future when we can be a true multiplayer species where anyone could move to another planet.

TL;DR: we need to colonize Mars before we go to Jupiter

[Pipcard]

Which is a very sad thing....

We'll never get to any other celestial body in this century, by my estimate. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though!

Never? In this century? Not even the Moon? Why so pessimistic?

I expect a Mars mission in the 2030s, and an outer planet mission in the late 21st century, but not in the 2040s/2050s.

Edited April 20, 2015 by Pipcard

[juanml82]

NASA did not tackle the radiation exposure issue for long term human spaceflight in deep space, so there is no realistic prospect of NASA (or anyone else for that matter) sending humans to Jupiter within any timeframe.

[Bill Phil]

Never? In this century? Not even the Moon? Why so pessimistic?

I expect a Mars mission in the 2030s, and an outer planet mission in the late 21st century, but not in the 2040s/2050s.

Because no one really cares about space....

Mars by 2030s is a bit optimistic...

It's just that people don't care.

- - - Updated - - -

NASA did not tackle the radiation exposure issue for long term human spaceflight in deep space, so there is no realistic prospect of NASA (or anyone else for that matter) sending humans to Jupiter within any timeframe.

That's a big one. Either go fast, like Apollo, or have a lot of mass. And since going fast is pretty hard in deep space with lots of mass, it'll be more mass.

[Pipcard]

But people do care, don't you see the views that SpaceX videos get?

Over 3 million views and over 13000 likes (400 dislikes) in just four days on a YouTube video

.

[Bill Phil]

But people do care, don't you see the views that SpaceX videos get?

Over 3 million views and over 13000 likes (400 dislikes) in just four days on a YouTube video

.

That's not caring. That's looking at something cool. Lots of people do that.

Do all of Markiplier's fans (someone famous as example) really care about the content? No. Some do, sure. But not all.

[jwenting]

NASA wants to do a lot of things, a lot of which they know in advance they'll never going to do either for lack of funding, lack of technology, too high a risk, or a combination of them.

And then of course they do a lot of theoretical studies, "what if" scenarios.

NASA also has "research into faster then light engines". Doesn't mean they are going to build one (any time soon, if ever) just that they're spending a tiny bit of money on the mostly philosophical question of what it would take to make one possible.

[ChrisSpace]

NASA is never likely to land humans on another planet or moon again. Not even the moon and mars will ever be reached with the amount of funding provided by the US government, and this is unlikely to ever change soon. Perhaps instead of thinking about NASA we should be looking into the possibility of someone else reaching other planets:

Russia's space program might continue on to the moon, and it has already announced that it will use its old ISS modules for its own space station. They also are very experienced with long human missions in space. However any Russian interplanetary mission is unlikely due to Russia's poor economic and political situation.

The European Space Agency is already planning to send a large rover to mars in a few years' time. They also are quite experienced with human space travel, despite never developing their own manned spacecraft. However, the ESA currently has no motive for interplanetary manned expeditions, or even manned lunar missions. They might help out with someone else's manned expedition, though.

SpaceX is arguably our best hope for a manned interplanetary expedition. They have proven they know how to land things with chemical propulsion, they are already developing a heavy lift launch vehicle and a manned orbital spacecraft, they are already planning to drastically drop launch costs by reusing their rocket boosters, and they are already developing plans for a manned mars expedition, which they say will launch in the late 2020s. So far their mars plan has seen no unpassable obstacles, and since they are a private company, they can't be virtually shut down like NASA was just because the government doesn't think they deserve funding. Once the mars colonial transporter is up and running, it is very likely SpaceX will look outwards towards the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Titan in particular would be a very profitable target, since it has seas of methane rocket fuel.

China is also a good contender for interplanetary exploration. Unlike most nations, China puts a lot of effort into it's space program, and already has a rover on the moon and a primitive manned space station in low orbit. They are also developing their own heavy launch vehicle, the long march 9, which will be even more powerful than the falcon heavy and should have it's maiden flight in 2028, if everything is on schedule. With the heavy lift capability, long term manned mission capability and growing economy it has, it is very likely China will begin its own moon and mars manned expeditions. After that, there is no reason it won't continue to the outer and inner planets. There is even the possibility China and SpaceX will have a series of interplanetary 'space races'.

India is often overlooked when talking about manned space exploration, however it is a surprisingly high-potential nation in this area. India already has launched a probe into mars orbit, and plans to launch a human into space in 2016. Its economy, like China's, is growing fast, so it could easily fund a manned interplanetary programme. Seeing SpaceX and China launch manned missions to mars and other planets/moons will certainly encourage India to begin such projects.

Iran and Japan have also displayed interest in manned space programmes, however they are very unlikely to succeed due to internal and foreign unrest as well as a lack of funding.

[Linear]

NASA is never likely to land humans on another planet or moon again. Not even the moon and mars will ever be reached with the amount of funding provided by the US government, and this is unlikely to ever change soon. Perhaps instead of thinking about NASA we should be looking into the possibility of someone else reaching other planets:

Russia's space program might continue on to the moon, and it has already announced that it will use its old ISS modules for its own space station. They also are very experienced with long human missions in space. However any Russian interplanetary mission is unlikely due to Russia's poor economic and political situation.

The European Space Agency is already planning to send a large rover to mars in a few years' time. They also are quite experienced with human space travel, despite never developing their own manned spacecraft. However, the ESA currently has no motive for interplanetary manned expeditions, or even manned lunar missions. They might help out with someone else's manned expedition, though.

SpaceX is arguably our best hope for a manned interplanetary expedition. They have proven they know how to land things with chemical propulsion, they are already developing a heavy lift launch vehicle and a manned orbital spacecraft, they are already planning to drastically drop launch costs by reusing their rocket boosters, and they are already developing plans for a manned mars expedition, which they say will launch in the late 2020s. So far their mars plan has seen no unpassable obstacles, and since they are a private company, they can't be virtually shut down like NASA was just because the government doesn't think they deserve funding. Once the mars colonial transporter is up and running, it is very likely SpaceX will look outwards towards the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Titan in particular would be a very profitable target, since it has seas of methane rocket fuel.

China is also a good contender for interplanetary exploration. Unlike most nations, China puts a lot of effort into it's space program, and already has a rover on the moon and a primitive manned space station in low orbit. They are also developing their own heavy launch vehicle, the long march 9, which will be even more powerful than the falcon heavy and should have it's maiden flight in 2028, if everything is on schedule. With the heavy lift capability, long term manned mission capability and growing economy it has, it is very likely China will begin its own moon and mars manned expeditions. After that, there is no reason it won't continue to the outer and inner planets. There is even the possibility China and SpaceX will have a series of interplanetary 'space races'.

India is often overlooked when talking about manned space exploration, however it is a surprisingly high-potential nation in this area. India already has launched a probe into mars orbit, and plans to launch a human into space in 2016. Its economy, like China's, is growing fast, so it could easily fund a manned interplanetary programme. Seeing SpaceX and China launch manned missions to mars and other planets/moons will certainly encourage India to begin such projects.

Iran and Japan have also displayed interest in manned space programmes, however they are very unlikely to succeed due to internal and foreign unrest as well as a lack of funding.

You say NASA is never likely to do human exploration, but then quote India as doing so?

Seriously, the US got annoyed at Russia doing it. You think they'd allow a country they give aid to beat them at space exploration?

China and the US (spacex + nasa) are by far the most likely candidates for manned exploration.

[Karriz]

NASA is never likely to land humans on another planet or moon again. Not even the moon and mars will ever be reached with the amount of funding provided by the US government, and this is unlikely to ever change soon. Perhaps instead of thinking about NASA we should be looking into the possibility of someone else reaching other planets:

Russia's space program might continue on to the moon, and it has already announced that it will use its old ISS modules for its own space station. They also are very experienced with long human missions in space. However any Russian interplanetary mission is unlikely due to Russia's poor economic and political situation.

The European Space Agency is already planning to send a large rover to mars in a few years' time. They also are quite experienced with human space travel, despite never developing their own manned spacecraft. However, the ESA currently has no motive for interplanetary manned expeditions, or even manned lunar missions. They might help out with someone else's manned expedition, though.

SpaceX is arguably our best hope for a manned interplanetary expedition. They have proven they know how to land things with chemical propulsion, they are already developing a heavy lift launch vehicle and a manned orbital spacecraft, they are already planning to drastically drop launch costs by reusing their rocket boosters, and they are already developing plans for a manned mars expedition, which they say will launch in the late 2020s. So far their mars plan has seen no unpassable obstacles, and since they are a private company, they can't be virtually shut down like NASA was just because the government doesn't think they deserve funding. Once the mars colonial transporter is up and running, it is very likely SpaceX will look outwards towards the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Titan in particular would be a very profitable target, since it has seas of methane rocket fuel.

China is also a good contender for interplanetary exploration. Unlike most nations, China puts a lot of effort into it's space program, and already has a rover on the moon and a primitive manned space station in low orbit. They are also developing their own heavy launch vehicle, the long march 9, which will be even more powerful than the falcon heavy and should have it's maiden flight in 2028, if everything is on schedule. With the heavy lift capability, long term manned mission capability and growing economy it has, it is very likely China will begin its own moon and mars manned expeditions. After that, there is no reason it won't continue to the outer and inner planets. There is even the possibility China and SpaceX will have a series of interplanetary 'space races'.

India is often overlooked when talking about manned space exploration, however it is a surprisingly high-potential nation in this area. India already has launched a probe into mars orbit, and plans to launch a human into space in 2016. Its economy, like China's, is growing fast, so it could easily fund a manned interplanetary programme. Seeing SpaceX and China launch manned missions to mars and other planets/moons will certainly encourage India to begin such projects.

Iran and Japan have also displayed interest in manned space programmes, however they are very unlikely to succeed due to internal and foreign unrest as well as a lack of funding.

Well, if SpaceX reduces the launch prices enough, don't you think NASA would finally be able to afford a Mars mission, using SpaceX's hardware? NASA already uses private contractors for a lot of things.

SpaceX may be able to do it alone if they get enough money from the whole satellite internet business, but I think a government+private joint-operation is more likely.

[ChrisSpace]

You say NASA is never likely to do human exploration, but then quote India as doing so?

Seriously, the US got annoyed at Russia doing it. You think they'd allow a country they give aid to beat them at space exploration?

Unlike the United States, India actually cares about space exploration, so they will eventually put more effort into it than the US. How and why do you think the US would try to 'stop' them. Remember, India and America are currently allies, not rivals.

Well, if SpaceX reduces the launch prices enough, don't you think NASA would finally be able to afford a Mars mission, using SpaceX's hardware? NASA already uses private contractors for a lot of things.

SpaceX may be able to do it alone if they get enough money from the whole satellite internet business, but I think a government+private joint-operation is more likely.

It is likely that NASA would take a small part in the first pre-colonization SpaceX mars missions, however almost all of the funding, planning, mission design and resources would come from SpaceX. Elon musk's companies are already making enough money to easily fund several mars expeditions.

[Bill Phil]

I don't think everybody around quite understands how much goes in to Moon missions. It took over a hundred billion US dollars in today's money. Maybe it can be reduced to about seventy five, but that's only the Moon. Mars would probably cost three times as much, or more. No one sane would do it just for science. Not even to go back to the Moon. Basically, everybody's saying, "What's in it for me?"

[lajoswinkler]

This probably won't happen before our children are dead and certainly not in our lifetime.

[Nibb31]

It is likely that NASA would take a small part in the first pre-colonization SpaceX mars missions, however almost all of the funding, planning, mission design and resources would come from SpaceX. Elon musk's companies are already making enough money to easily fund several mars expeditions.

[Citation needed]

[FishInferno]

I don't think everybody around quite understands how much goes in to Moon missions. It took over a hundred billion US dollars in today's money. Maybe it can be reduced to about seventy five, but that's only the Moon. Mars would probably cost three times as much, or more. No one sane would do it just for science. Not even to go back to the Moon. Basically, everybody's saying, "What's in it for me?"

a second home for humanity so that when (not if, when) something happens to Earth we can survive as a species