Proton M 3rd stage explodes, leaving MexSat-1 unusable

[K^2]

I don't think there was even a separation. The third stage just shut down. But yeah, even if Breeze-M separated, it wouldn't have had a chance.

Edit: More news about Vostochny. To replace workers, they are going to send in students from various universities to work over the summer in exchange for postponing the session.

Fat polar fox.

Edited May 18, 2015 by K^2

[J.Random]

To replace workers, they are going to send in students from various universities to work over the summer in exchange for postponing the session.

"Replace"? I would really like to know where you get all this bull*.

[K^2]

Rogozin's statement on the matter. And what word other than "replace" would you use, when there is a shortage of work force due to recent incidents with the delayed payments?

[Kryten]

The labour shortage is a lot older than the payment issues; there simply aren't enough in the region. I don't think they've ever broken having half the requested workforce at the site.

[K^2]

The labour shortage is a lot older than the payment issues; there simply aren't enough in the region. I don't think they've ever broken having half the requested workforce at the site.

They had some workers from neighborign States suplementing the work force. That is, until they stopped paying them. I don't know if it was enough to keep the project anywhere close to schedule. I know it isn't now. I stand by my word choice. Though, I agree that it deserves a foot note.

[J.Random]

K^2, I know you read Russian. http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/russia/2015/05/150518_vostochny_students

[1greywind]

People (K^2, Kryten, J.Random): the fact is, Roscosmos and all russian space industry is in the heat of reorganization to ÞàÃÅ¡ÃÅ¡ (united rocket and space corporation) under new "civilian" management (Komarov is economist and manager, not general like Ostapenko, Povokin and Perminov who run Roscosmos for 10 years). Anyone who is familiar with that "reorganization" means in russian realities should understand: work quality and testing suffers in first place because it is always easer to fire some workers to cut costs and make plant "more effective" than looking into root causes of problems (aging of workforce and not enough inflow of young specialists due to very low salaries in industry).

[Kryten]

With Proton, there's also the issue that Krunichev are switching focus to Angara, and Angara is produced at the former Polyot plant in Omsk rather than the Proton facilities near Moscow. This could help with Krunichev's own skilled labour problems in the long term, but for now it means Proton is assembled by people with uncertain future prospects at facilities that will receive no upgrades and the bare minimum of maintenance.

[K^2]

K^2, I know you read Russian. http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/russia/2015/05/150518_vostochny_students

Yup, everything in that article is consistent with what I know about Vostochny. If we agree on this, what exactly is the problem with the statement I've made above? They are getting over 1k students, almost 15% increase in the workforce over the summer. It's necessary because there is a shortage of workers, which is aggrevated by payment delays. In what sense are these students not a replacement for the work force? Not all work force, just a fraction, but not an insignificant one.

This is all very reminiscent of certain soviet practices. Although, to be perfectly fair, if I had to something like this when I was a student, I'd have way more enthusiasm for working on a construction site for a space center than digging up potatoes in the field.

[J.Random]

Yup, everything in that article is consistent with what I know about Vostochny. If we agree on this, what exactly is the problem with the statement I've made above? They are getting over 1k students, almost 15% increase in the workforce over the summer. It's necessary because there is a shortage of workers, which is aggrevated by payment delays. In what sense are these students not a replacement for the work force? Not all work force, just a fraction, but not an insignificant one.

This is all very reminiscent of certain soviet practices. Although, to be perfectly fair, if I had to something like this when I was a student, I'd have way more enthusiasm for working on a construction site for a space center than digging up potatoes in the field.

OK. First, it's not like this thousand will be working there at the same time. They're working in shifts, and as I remember, no longer than a month, maybe even less. I remember recruiters inviting students for two-week shifts, but that was more than 10 years ago, they could change it. There's 130 students at the moment. Compare it to 8000 permanent workforce. Doesn't look like 15% to me.

Second, students are working on Vostochny since 2012. The whole organized student workforce movement has started back in 2004. It's not like it's unpaid labor. It's not like management stopped paying workers and started to replace them with students, it's two completely different matters. Students do not replace regular workforce, they extend it, doing finishing work, for example, or helping where qualified labor isn't needed.

I think that you mistake construction workers for some unqualified grunts who can be replaced by students from anywhere. It may look like that to a particle theory physicist, but it's not true.

Edited May 18, 2015 by J.Random

[K^2]

I can completely understand some students working in places like that to augment their stipends. As I've pointed out, it's not that I consider it a bad alternative. But you can't tell me that increase from a bit over 100 to well over 1,000 is nothing. Even if we are talking month-long shifts, that's still a dramatic increase. Both in relation to what they normaly have and to the overall work force.

And yes, I realize that construction works requires a range of qualifications. From things you can learn in a couple of weeks, to things for which you need to train for years. That's precisely what concerns me. A hundred or two students seems like the right number of people for pushing wheel barrows and mixing cement. They propose infusing something like 300-400 in addition in a single shift? What are they going to learn there in a month? And who's going to take the time training them? I'm worried that a lot of work that requires qualification will end up being performed by people who lack them. Hence my thoughts of polar foxes.

Of course, if you need people who can finish an impossible task by an impossible deadline, maybe students aren't the worst choice.

[J.Random]

We don't know if this increase in quota (if there is one) was forced or not. Let's see:

2012 - 70 students.

2013 - 135.

2014 - 445.

2015 - 1200(?).

Some sources say that some students are actually qualified for specific jobs, like geodesists, so this project is like a paid internship for them. They also aren't strictly russian-only, there are students from Belarus as well.

I understand your worries, but I think it's actually a great initiative.

Of course, if you need people who can finish an impossible task by an impossible deadline, maybe students aren't the worst choice.

Good one.

[1greywind]

@K^2, I would like to hear your opinion on this initiative. Is it sign of "f'ed Russia going to f'ed s't" too?

[K^2]

Not at all. If anything, they should do this for civilian sector as well. It could be great for economy. Even if it applies to military industry only, there should be some trickle-down effect beneficial for the industry in general. Plus military export is still an export.

For sake of anyone curious, the topic of that article is recent law equating certain qualified work in military industrial to alternative service. Russia is, currently, a "universal" draft state.

Not directly relevant to the topic here, but it could actually help Krunichev in the long run.

Edited May 18, 2015 by K^2

[1greywind]

@K^2: Well, why if you understand reasons beyond this, why you are so critically minded on using students as workers on Vostochny? Both cases have same reasons, both use administrative power to enforce and in both cases new workforce is needed as emergency.

[Kryten]

Does anyone have anything substantive on the next-generation launcher from Progress, possibly called Fenix? It could prove a useful backup in what looks to be a near-monopoly for Krunichev otherwise.

[K^2]

@K^2: Well, why if you understand reasons beyond this, why you are so critically minded on using students as workers on Vostochny? Both cases have same reasons, both use administrative power to enforce and in both cases new workforce is needed as emergency.

Duration of alternative service is 1-2 years. Most people who qualify are these who already have some skills. Most will have completed technicums and are readily able to fill entry level positions in the industry. Counting work there as alternative service creates a great insentive for people to fill these positions, and a good number of them are expected to stay at these jobs even after getting their service counted.

Furthermore, modernization of Russian military requires gearing it towards reliance on contracted servicemen, rather than drfated ones. But Russia isn't ready to do away with draft completely at this juncture. Alternative service is a great interim compromise. We don't need people who can be doing professional work wasting their time learning how to peel potatoes in the army. This whole thing is a solution to two existing problems.

It would be fair to observe that both of these problems might not have existed if it weren't for a whole bunch of other terrible decisions, but these problems exist, and this addresses them both readily. It's not enough, but it's a great start.

In contrast, we see construction of space center, which is behind the schedule and over budget because of theft, corruption, and cronyism. It is in dire need of skilled workers to complete it properly. The correct solution is clearly to halt construction until investigations are over, appoint new people and budget, hire the workers and continue. This can potentially cost years. The Soviet solution is to find a source of cheap labor and throw it at the problem. In this case students, who are under-qualified and will not have time to gain qualification. Furthermore, for a lot of them, work there will do nothing in furthering their education. They are going either because they are given certain liberties to help them pass exams, or because they need money due to stipends being rather low.

This is not solving problems. It's compounding them, while creating semblance of work. The only reason this is being done is so that Rogozin can report that he's doing all he can to get construction back on schedule. And while this might create a short boost in progress, it will certainly not last, and what's worse, can result in further setbacks down the line because most people being brought onto the site aren't qualified for that work. Brick laying and electrification are not courses taught in modern universities. Again, for this sort of thing, you want technicum graduates.

This is a bad idea. It will end badly. And worst of all, pepole implementing it most likely realize it. This is purely a way to temporarily make things look good, allowing people in charge more time to pocket more budget money.

Edit: Not to derail this even further, but the same sort of thing is already happening with the bridge. You know the one I'm talking about. I don't really want to start a discussion on it, but just mark these words, and maybe think back to this discussion a couple of years from now when it's clear how that's turning out.

Edited May 18, 2015 by K^2

[1greywind]

@K^2: Now I see that you position is not that radical as I first thought. And I see only one point where I must object:

"This is purely a way to temporarily make things look good, allowing people in charge more time to pocket more budget money"

Personally I think they only want to complete presidential decree about first launch from Vostochny in the end of 2015 - somehow put rocket with "Lomonosov" sat on launchpad and hope it will not explode.

think back to this discussion a couple of years

Yep. Time will tell. I have low expectations about future of Russian space program. Some optimism come from some newly emerged privat russian space companies - Dauria-aerospace, Lyn-industries, but state space corps are constant source of disappointment.

[J.Random]

Back on topic, kinda weird update on the root cause. Surprisingly, it's a design failure, not assembly:

3rd stage burn was aborted because of a malfunctioning steering (vernier) motor, specifically, because of a violent vibration caused by destruction of a bearing in its turbopump. Material of the bearing degraded under high temperatures. Planned actions: material change for the turbopump bearings/rotor assembly, improvement in turbopump's bracing to the main motor's chassis and modification of the balancing methods for the turbopump rotor.

[Scotius]

Wait a minute. Roscosmos is launching stuff on Protons for Kod knows how many years - and only now they realised such vital part of the assembly is made out of substandard materials? I don't know if i should be impressed or horrified

[J.Random]

First, there is no "substandard materials" in rocket science. Second, try to troubleshoot a problem when you don't know about it, it doesn't manifest itself, and when it does, it happens 100km up (probably, with an explosion).

[Scotius]

Bearing disintegrated due to increased temperature (which is par for the course for a ROCKET ENGINE(!) = substandard.

First Proton-M launch in 2001. Thats 14 years of successful launches using faulty elements = am impressed. A lot.

and\or

14 years of launches using faulty elements, until the problem was discovered = am horrified. A lot.

[StrandedonEarth]

Or, they accepted a bad batch of bearings. Not surprising considering the tales of corruption going on in the Russian rocket industry

[J.Random]

Bearing disintegrated due to increased temperature (which is par for the course for a ROCKET ENGINE(!) = substandard.

Wow.

By the same logic, Space Shuttle was built with "substandard" materials. O-rings? Insulation foam strike?

Were bearing "disintegrated", the turbopump would probably explode. Instead, it just lead to rotor balance issues, vibration and engine shutting off. Now, if anyone can solve this issue, it's russians. Try googling US engineers' first reactions when they were presented with russian rocket motors. Next, google "gas-generator cycle vs closed cycle". So yeah, I believe our engineers can and will solve the issue.

Last but not least, and I'm really sorry I have to tell this, it infuriates me when every technical or administrative problem, if it affects Russia, is greeted with badly concealed joy and talk about how "understandable" it is, because russians are barbarians, and the country is corrupt and all. Yes, we, russians, often consider our officials corrupt. You know why? Because what we call "corruption", you call "lobbying". This kind of argument is just disgusting. I understand that the degree of anti-russian propaganda goes off the scale in your mass media, but you guys don't even give it a second thought, ever. "Friendly KSP community", right.

[Kryten]

It's hardly deniable that corruption in Russia is larger scale and more widespread than in many other countries. Roskosmos alone has recently found $1.8 billion worth of losses through 'financial violations'; when was the last time something of that scale happened in the US?