are all rescued kerbals scientists?

[MaxwellsDemon]

Ah, probability and statistics... so simple and yet so complex. What's the chance of getting 7 scientists in a row? Very small, as previously stated. Having gotten six scientists in a row, what are the chances of getting a seventh? One in three.* "Lady Luck has no mind and no memory." -- Larry Niven.

My money is on a mod interacting with KSP in some way to cause an unforeseen consequence-- maybe resetting or not resetting a register somewhere, for instance-- but I haven't the foggiest notion of which mod might be at fault, and empirical testing without digging into the code is likely to be quite laborious.

________________

* assuming the three professions are equally likely to appear.

Edited November 15, 2015 by MaxwellsDemon

[numerobis]

What's the chance that *I* get the first seven to be scientists? Pretty slim.

What's the chance that *somebody* gets the first seven to be scientists? Depends how many people are playing.

MaxwellsDemon: "seven in a row" is a different and rather higher-probability event than "first seven," also. Play long enough and you're bound to get seven in a row.

[ForScience6686]

Goodness guys, I have stated this is not accepted math, and you are taking too much from this.

Based on the question of receiving a scientist or not, your chances are 50/50, however your probability is lower. I have gotten 4 out of 4 engineers, but your math says that is highly unlikely to occur, where my " math" shows that it is more likely to occur than your odds show. We now have multiple examples of people drastically beating your odds. A coin flip is 50/50 but I bet your actual results would show different. All I'm saying is the real world doesn't have to go by your odds. And the way you state a question matters more than you are recognizing.

I figured a higher sense of humor in this group. Lets not get hostile here.

[Sanic]

Goodness guys, I have stated this is not accepted math, and you are taking too much from this.

Based on the question of receiving a scientist or not, your chances are 50/50, however your probability is lower. I have gotten 4 out of 4 engineers, but your math says that is highly unlikely to occur, where my " math" shows that it is more likely to occur than your odds show. We now have multiple examples of people drastically beating your odds. A coin flip is 50/50 but I bet your actual results would show different. All I'm saying is the real world doesn't have to go by your odds. And the way you state a question matters more than you are recognizing.

I figured a higher sense of humor in this group. Lets not get hostile here.

I think this pseudo-flamewar needs to stop. ForScience's mathematical reasoning was incorrect (which the people here proved), but now it's just overkill. Leave ForScience alone, I'm sure he/she understands now.

Edited November 15, 2015 by Sanic

[GoSlash27]

Goodness guys, I have stated this is not accepted math, and you are taking too much from this.

Based on the question of receiving a scientist or not, your chances are 50/50, however your probability is lower. I have gotten 4 out of 4 engineers, but your math says that is highly unlikely to occur, where my " math" shows that it is more likely to occur than your odds show. We now have multiple examples of people drastically beating your odds. A coin flip is 50/50 but I bet your actual results would show different. All I'm saying is the real world doesn't have to go by your odds. And the way you state a question matters more than you are recognizing.

I figured a higher sense of humor in this group. Lets not get hostile here.

ForScience,

Oh, no hostility intended. I'm simply pointing out that your math and reasoning are 100% dead wrong and explaining why.

The smart man does not take correction of his mistaken beliefs as a personal attack, but rather an opportunity to learn something new. No educated man ever got that way from being right all the time

Best,

-Slashy

[ForScience6686]

Sorry slash, but I figured I made it clear that I was not using actual math here. What I am saying is that you calculate odds all day, but that does not dictate the outcome. The poster and I have both beat the odds, but from what you can calculate that isn't very probable. Probability is just a method humans use to quantify an outcome, but the real world does not necessarily follow those odds. Therefore could it not be argued that all these numbers are arbitrary and it's all luck of the draw anyway?

[GoSlash27]

Sorry slash, but I figured I made it clear that I was not using actual math here.

We are all aware of that. You're not using actual logic, either.

What I am saying is that you calculate odds all day, but that does not dictate the outcome.

Absolutely correct, and nobody is suggesting otherwise.

The poster and I have both beat the odds, but from what you can calculate that isn't very probable.

False. From what I calculate, there should be many people who have had this happen.

Probability is just a method humans use to quantify an outcome, but the real world does not necessarily follow those odds.

False and false.

Therefore could it not be argued that all these numbers are arbitrary and it's all luck of the draw anyway?

Anything "could" be argued but not every argument is correct.

Now... I (and everyone else here) have attempted to set you straight and it's abundantly clear that you'd rather argue than listen. I'm happy to help you understand whatever you request (assuming I know it), but I have absolutely no interest in arguing with you.

Carry on,

-Slashy

[GoSlash27]

I've got the opposite problem so far. I've rescued 9 kerbals and maxed out my roster at this upgrade level and *none* of my rescued kerbals are scientists. I need scientists for this phase :(
What are the odds of this happening? I make it out to be 2^9/3^9= 1:38. Not all that rare, but highly aggravating.

Best,
-Slashy