New Flagship Missions

[fredinno]

Imagine it is the year 2021. Mars 2020 has launched last year, and is now operational on Mars. Europa Clipper is set to launch in 4 years, and is being constructed- meanwhile, the Uranus Orbiter (and atmospheric probe) is undergoing planning and design for launch in 2030. ( Let's just say, just to get that out of the way)

 

You are responsible for selecting 3 flagship missions NASA should pursue for the next 10 years. (Not exactly realistic, but lets's just say) What missions would you propose and choose? The list should be in order of importance.

 

My list:

1. Mars Sample Return (taking the samples cached from Mars 2020, and returning team back to Earth- this is important, so that the samples are obtained before the rover breaks and complicates things.)

2. Titan Orbiter and Lander (A solar-powered probe that does multiple flybys of numerous Saturnian moons for a few years before settling in orbit around  Titan. Then the probe would release a lander to the surface of Titan, which does a parachute-assisted landing on one of Titan's seas- and is very similar to TiME, but using normal RTGs instead)

3. Neptune-Triton Dual Orbiter Mission (Sends two orbiters to Neptune. One is released to study Neptune from Neptune Orbit, while the other goes into Triton Orbit to study the moon.)

 

What missions would YOU choose?

[Bill Phil]

Hmmm.... Next 10 years?

1. Neptune/Titan orbiter - Study neptune and it's largest moon in greater detail

2. Pluto/Charon Orbiter - Study and map more of the surfaces, although it would take nearly a decade to get to Pluto...

3. Mars sample return - cause why not?

[Mitchz95]

I'd probably do Mars Sample Return and an orbiter each for Uranus and Neptune.

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, Mitchz95 said:

I'd probably do Mars Sample Return and an orbiter each for Uranus and Neptune.

Uranus Orbiter is already done in this thing- I did that to get it out of the way.

8 hours ago, Bill Phil said:

Hmmm.... Next 10 years?

1. Neptune/Titan orbiter - Study neptune and it's largest moon in greater detail

2. Pluto/Charon Orbiter - Study and map more of the surfaces, although it would take nearly a decade to get to Pluto...

3. Mars sample return - cause why not?

Wouldn't it be too soon to study Pluto/Charon Again, though? Why not another KBO?

[Frida Space]

Definitely a Mars return mission to retrieve Mars 2020's samples (that's actually the real plan, but no dates yet). With all the upcoming Mars missions (that by the 2020s should be completed), like the ExoMars fleet, Mars 2020, InSight (pending rescheduling), a sample return mission is really the next step. We'll have to level up our exploration of Mars sooner or later!

For the other two missions, I have three favourites: a Titan acquatic explorer (either a submarine or a floatation device or whatever), an Io orbiter and an Enceladus orbiter (something like an Enceladus Life Finder [a Discovery 13 proposal] on steroids). I think we should really get some real science going on around all of these interesting outer solar system moons. Obviously the priority is Europa, but that's already covered by the Clipper probe (or whatever it will be called).

At the same time, it will be important to keep exploring the inner planets and asteroids and comets and possibly more KBOs, but I believe we should keep those destinations (which in my opinion are just as fascinating as Europa or Enceladus) to the other programs, Discovery and New Frontiers.

[Mitchz95]

1 hour ago, fredinno said:

Uranus Orbiter is already done in this thing- I did that to get it out of the way.

Missed that. Sorry.

A New Horizons-style mission to Eris, maybe?

[Robotengineer]

Humie boots will be on Mars around that time period so I don't see the point in a Mars sample return mission within a few years of settlement. I also don't see the point of a sample return when we can basically send a complete mobile laboratory. And to all the doubters who don't think we will make it to Mars before 2030, your basically creating a self fulfilling prophecy. 

I would say that Titan is second only to Europa in terms of life potential and scientific potential. A Titan ATV would be awesome but costly. Uranus and Neptune have been basically ignored since the Voyager missions, I would send a Cassini like probe to both of them. 

This year we have completed the initial catalog of the 'local' (local as in accessible without extremely long flight times, like 50 years) solar system with the flyby of Pluto. IMO, it is time to start doing more in-depth and focused missions to fill in the gaps in our current data, as well as begin colonizing Mars. 

My top 3:

Titan lander, preferably all-terrain, but aquatic if necessary. 

Neptune and Uranus flagship orbiters, my 2 and 3. 

[fredinno]

4 hours ago, Frida Space said:

Definitely a Mars return mission to retrieve Mars 2020's samples (that's actually the real plan, but no dates yet). With all the upcoming Mars missions (that by the 2020s should be completed), like the ExoMars fleet, Mars 2020, InSight (pending rescheduling), a sample return mission is really the next step. We'll have to level up our exploration of Mars sooner or later!

For the other two missions, I have three favourites: a Titan acquatic explorer (either a submarine or a floatation device or whatever), an Io orbiter and an Enceladus orbiter (something like an Enceladus Life Finder [a Discovery 13 proposal] on steroids). I think we should really get some real science going on around all of these interesting outer solar system moons. Obviously the priority is Europa, but that's already covered by the Clipper probe (or whatever it will be called).

At the same time, it will be important to keep exploring the inner planets and asteroids and comets and possibly more KBOs, but I believe we should keep those destinations (which in my opinion are just as fascinating as Europa or Enceladus) to the other programs, Discovery and New Frontiers.

You can only choose a total of 3 missions- cut out one.

[Frida Space]

35 minutes ago, fredinno said:

You can only choose a total of 3 missions- cut out one.

Damn! You make my life hard  If it was for me, I'd go for Io, Titan and Enceladus, I don't like Mars that much. But I have to admit that retrieving samples from Mars has a very big scientific potential, so my final choice would be: Mars sample return, Titan maria explorer and an Enceladus orbiter / plume-diver. I'm fascinated by Io and I definitely think it's more than worth of our attention; however, from a biological point of view, it's obviously the least interesting out of the four.

3 hours ago, Robotengineer said:

Humie boots will be on Mars around that time period so I don't see the point in a Mars sample return mission within a few years of settlement. I also don't see the point of a sample return when we can basically send a complete mobile laboratory. And to all the doubters who don't think we will make it to Mars before 2030, your basically creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

The setting is 2021, which is basically in 5 years (and 5 days!!) time... call me a pessimist, but I wouldn't be too sure that a human mission to Mars would be that close. Maybe a manned flyby/orbital mission by the end of the 2030s, yes, but that's still 15-20 years away (from the 2021 scenario, I mean). Rovers are cool and their labs are getting super technological and all but in certain things a human is still preferable (or at least, we like to think it is ). It's very difficult to make predictions, I guess everything is up to one's optimism (or lack of)

Edited December 27, 2015 by Frida Space

[Robotengineer]

4 hours ago, Frida Space said:

The setting is 2021, which is basically in 5 years (and 5 days!!) time... call me a pessimist, but I wouldn't be too sure that a human mission to Mars would be that close. Maybe a manned flyby/orbital mission by the end of the 2030s, yes, but that's still 15-20 years away (from the 2021 scenario, I mean). Rovers are cool and their labs are getting super technological and all but in certain things a human is still preferable (or at least, we like to think it is ). It's very difficult to make predictions, I guess everything is up to one's optimism (or lack of)

My bad for not reading all of the OP, . I seriously doubt we will take the manned flyby —> orbital mission —> to ground approach to Mars. I've read Aldrin's book, as well as looked at other multi-stage, long-term missions and I just don't see how we would get to Mars that way. IMO, if we take that route a Mars settlement will always be 15-20+ years in the future, like it has been since the end of the Apollo era. Until an entity, government or private, says that we will put a base on Mars before X year, we just won't generate enough interest, public and political, with such a plan. 

If the Mars 2020 rover lands in 2021, you launch a sample return craft in 2022, it arrives in 2023, you have to wait for the return launch period in 2024, and the sample arrives in 2025, if I'm not mistaken. SpaceX intends to land the first colonists in 2027, which is too ambitious IMO, I would expect 2029 to 2031 as the first dates. That's only 4-6 years after the sample return, which isn't that long in science terms. (Disclaimer: I guesstimated the sample return dates based on Earth-Mars rendezvous, they probably aren't very accurate.) 

@OP Apologies for derailing your thread.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Robotengineer

[cantab]

I don't really know what's actually on the cards, but I'm going to propose:

Mars ISRU pilot. Get something on the surface of Mars that can run the chemical processes that a manned Mars mission will need to work to keep people alive and get them back. This could be combined with a Mars sample return mission, though that might be a risky way to run the sample return.

Venus solar aircraft. It's been too long since anyone sent a spacecraft into Venus. With modern advances in autonomous aircraft, and how it's still a current area of research, the time is I think right for aviation on another world. A blimp should not be discounted, but I think a heavier-than-air craft would be preferable.

Small body prospecting mission. OSIRIS-REx will have visited an asteroid, retrieved a sample, and be on its way back to Earth but it's already time to start thinking about something bigger. The focus of the mission will be to characterise the geology of the target body with a view to how it might be mined and for what. As for the target there are a few candidates. Phobos or Deimos would obviously support a Mars mission. A near-Earth asteroid might be readily accessible. Opting for a main belt asteroid might reduce constraints in terms of launch schedule since if a primary launch window is missed an alternative destination could be chosen.

Two of these missions are going beyond the "pure science" of previous planetary exploration and into study with a view to functional and commercial exploitation. The Venus plane meanwhile has a high chance of developing technology with uses on Earth.

The outer solar system may feel neglected I know, but we have already established that Jupiter and Uranus missions are secured, so I don't feel bad about focussing on the inner system.

Edited December 28, 2015 by cantab

[fredinno]

2 hours ago, Robotengineer said:

My bad for not reading all of the OP, . I seriously doubt we will take the manned flyby —> orbital mission —> to ground approach to Mars. I've read Aldrin's book, as well as looked at other multi-stage, long-term missions and I just don't see how we would get to Mars that way. IMO, if we take that route a Mars settlement will always be 15-20+ years in the future, like it has been since the end of the Apollo era. Until an entity, government or private, says that we will put a base on Mars before X year, we just won't generate enough interest, public and political, with such a plan. 

If the Mars 2020 rover lands in 2021, you launch a sample return craft in 2022, it arrives in 2023, you have to wait for the return launch period in 2024, and the sample arrives in 2025, if I'm not mistaken. SpaceX intends to land the first colonists in 2027, which is too ambitious IMO, I would expect 2029 to 2031 as the first dates. That's only 4-6 years after the sample return, which isn't that long in science terms. (Disclaimer: I guesstimated the sample return dates based on Earth-Mars rendezvous, they probably aren't very accurate.) 

@OP Apologies for derailing your thread.

Mars Sample Return is probably not going to come that quick- even Mars 2020 comes at nearly the end of the timeline for the current Decadal survey, made in 2012. Stretch that timeline to launching after Uranus Orbiter in 2030, and you'd probably be more realistic and less optimistic.

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, cantab said:

I don't really know what's actually on the cards, but I'm going to propose:

Mars ISRU pilot. Get something on the surface of Mars that can run the chemical processes that a manned Mars mission will need to work to keep people alive and get them back. This could be combined with a Mars sample return mission, though that might be a risky way to run the sample return.

Venus solar aircraft. It's been too long since anyone sent a spacecraft into Venus. With modern advances in autonomous aircraft, and how it's still a current area of research, the time is I think right for aviation on another world. A blimp should not be discounted, but I think a heavier-than-air craft would be preferable.

Small body prospecting mission. OSIRIS-REx will have visited an asteroid, retrieved a sample, and be on its way back to Earth but it's already time to start thinking about something bigger. The focus of the mission will be to characterise the geology of the target body with a view to how it might be mined and for what. As for the target there are a few candidates. Phobos or Deimos would obviously support a Mars mission. A near-Earth asteroid might be readily accessible. Opting for a main belt asteroid might reduce constraints in terms of launch schedule since if a primary launch window is missed an alternative destination could be chosen.

Two of these missions are going beyond the "pure science" of previous planetary exploration and into study with a view to functional and commercial exploitation. The Venus plane meanwhile has a high chance of developing technology with uses on Earth.

The outer solar system may feel neglected I know, but we have already established that Jupiter and Uranus missions are secured, so I don't feel bad about focussing on the inner system.

Hmm, Mars ISRU pilot is cool, but unless it's combined with Sample Return (risky for such a large mission) as a piggyback on a larger lander/rover/aircraft, or a prototype MAV, it's probably going to end up as New Frontiers, TBH.

 

Venus Solar-powered craft would be a pain- Venus blocks 90 percent of the sunlight it gets, and RTGs are inefficient due to the heat. A blimp would provide a lot more area for the panels, and also not have to be on all the time. Again, this sounds more New Frontiers or even Discovery than Flagship. I appreciate a Venus Mission, though.

 

Asteroid Mining prototype would be great, but I have a feeling they'll find a way to incorporate that into SLS/Orion somewhere, given the chance.... Deferring a robotic for a manned mission... (Looks at ARM)

It's definitely worth a look, though- it could probably be done on the ARM asteroid/moon (unless you wanted something like metallic asteroid mining for metals.

10 hours ago, Mitchz95 said:

Missed that. Sorry.

A New Horizons-style mission to Eris, maybe?

I saw a mission to Eris in Orbiter, and it took something like 2 decades just to get to Eris-granted, it was on a Delta IV Heavy, but Eris was shown to take 2 times as much time to get to than Pluto. Actually even SEDNA would be more worthwhile- it's even closer right now than Eris, and is expected to get even closer!

[fredinno]

9 hours ago, Robotengineer said:

Humie boots will be on Mars around that time period so I don't see the point in a Mars sample return mission within a few years of settlement. I also don't see the point of a sample return when we can basically send a complete mobile laboratory. And to all the doubters who don't think we will make it to Mars before 2030, your basically creating a self fulfilling prophecy. 

I would say that Titan is second only to Europa in terms of life potential and scientific potential. A Titan ATV would be awesome but costly. Uranus and Neptune have been basically ignored since the Voyager missions, I would send a Cassini like probe to both of them. 

This year we have completed the initial catalog of the 'local' (local as in accessible without extremely long flight times, like 50 years) solar system with the flyby of Pluto. IMO, it is time to start doing more in-depth and focused missions to fill in the gaps in our current data, as well as begin colonizing Mars. 

My top 3:

Titan lander, preferably all-terrain, but aquatic if necessary. 

Neptune and Uranus flagship orbiters, my 2 and 3. 

What would a Titan ATV look like? Also, Uranus is planning to launch already in this timeline. Choose something else, please.

[Robotengineer]

21 minutes ago, fredinno said:

What would a Titan ATV look like? Also, Uranus is planning to launch already in this timeline. Choose something else, please.

It would look similar to Curiosity or Mars 2020, but have a buoyant hull, the wheels be able to retract, and a propeller or water jet, perhaps powered by compressed atmospheric air. If Uranus is planned, a multiple small body mission to the asteroid belt would be interesting. 

[fredinno]

8 minutes ago, Robotengineer said:

It would look similar to Curiosity or Mars 2020, but have a buoyant hull, the wheels be able to retract, and a propeller or water jet, perhaps powered by compressed atmospheric air. If Uranus is planned, a multiple small body mission to the asteroid belt would be interesting. 

That would be enormously expensive- choose one propulsion method for the Titan ATV, not 2- even flagship missions have to be careful not to be too ambitious.

 

And a multiple Small body mission to the asteroid belt would litterally be DAWN.