Blue Origin Thread (merged)

[DerekL1963]

21 minutes ago, Kryten said:

You're acting like the US is the entire story here-that they got competed out of the commercial launch market until recently is a footnote for most of us. Nibb31 is not American, and he's talking about the international commercial market of Arianespace, ILS and co.

No, I'm not acting like the US is the entire story here.   I'm demonstrating *why* they got outcompeted, with the caveat that the idiot "everything will ride on Shuttle" policy decision back in the early 80's is also a factor in that.   (As is Eurocentrism and fall of the Soviet Union.)  It's a complicated picture with roots that run back half a century and more.  And the US is part of the international market too, and changes to US launch providers *will* have international repercussions.

So, don't play the Eurocentric card, because it's bull.  The problem I'm having with Nibb's response has nothing to do with our nationalities and everything to do with people trying to reduce complex situations into simplified and rote answers.

[fredinno]

6 hours ago, Kryten said:

 Commercial satellites are already produced in considerable volume to standard designs; just take a look here or here for some currently-produced examples.

But they are not mass produced, which is a bigger issue.

 

[Mitchz95]

For what it's worth, I remember reading that SpaceX is opening a factory to mass-produce satellites that can be purchased by outside entities. If they can make that work, I imagine the cost of the satellites would go down a lot.

[fredinno]

4 minutes ago, Mitchz95 said:

For what it's worth, I remember reading that SpaceX is opening a factory to mass-produce satellites that can be purchased by outside entities. If they can make that work, I imagine the cost of the satellites would go down a lot.

Source?

[Nibb31]

6 hours ago, DerekL1963 said:

*sigh* 

I didn't say commercial space flight - I said commercial launchers.   The two things don't mean the same thing, not even (censored) close.

Right, I stand corrected. Commercial launch services have existed for decades too.

6 hours ago, DerekL1963 said:

SpaceX's growing order book, and the responses of the established launch providers say otherwise.  For the first time in history there's real competition between launch providers - and the game is already very visibly changing.

This is not the first time in History. Arianespace, Boeing, LM, Roskosmos have been competing for decades.

But you're right, SpaceX has cut launch prices by 50%, which is a great achievement, and they are reaping the benefits at the expense of other providers. However, it's not creating a whole new economy or revolutionizing applications for space technology. I wish it would. The best we can hope for is to see a couple of these constellations getting launched, but that market only represents a boom of 20 to 50 launches, which can be absorbed over a couple of years. After that, things get back to normal.

What we really need is a "killer-app" for space, a problem that can only be solved by a huge demand for spaceflight and generates revenue. Once you've got your killer app, all the economies of scale and reusability technologies will start to make sense. I just don't see that happening in the foreseeable future.

 

[Kryten]

11 hours ago, fredinno said:

But they are not mass produced, which is a bigger issue.

They're as mass-produced as they're going to be able to get in the GEO ring, with the limits of the slot allocation system. Mass-produced satellites have been common for schemes in other orbital regimes, and in the vast majority of cases (Iridium, Orbcomm, Globalstar, ICO, Teledesic) have led to the purveyors going bankrupt. Only O3B has found any success in this sector, and their 12 satellites per design barely qualify as mass-production.

[Halo_003]

10 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

Right, I stand corrected. Commercial launch services have existed for decades too.

This is not the first time in History. Arianespace, Boeing, LM, Roskosmos have been competing for decades.

But you're right, SpaceX has cut launch prices by 50%, which is a great achievement, and they are reaping the benefits at the expense of other providers. However, it's not creating a whole new economy or revolutionizing applications for space technology. I wish it would. The best we can hope for is to see a couple of these constellations getting launched, but that market only represents a boom of 20 to 50 launches, which can be absorbed over a couple of years. After that, things get back to normal.

What we really need is a "killer-app" for space, a problem that can only be solved by a huge demand for spaceflight and generates revenue. Once you've got your killer app, all the economies of scale and reusability technologies will start to make sense. I just don't see that happening in the foreseeable future.

 

I guess the question really is what does space have to offer us in the near future. If someone can figure that out and create a demand for launches I think things will rapidly change.

[fredinno]

4 hours ago, Kryten said:

They're as mass-produced as they're going to be able to get in the GEO ring, with the limits of the slot allocation system. Mass-produced satellites have been common for schemes in other orbital regimes, and in the vast majority of cases (Iridium, Orbcomm, Globalstar, ICO, Teledesic) have led to the purveyors going bankrupt. Only O3B has found any success in this sector, and their 12 satellites per design barely qualify as mass-production.

Exactly, which is why SpaceX's market is not going to launch the mass-produced sats- even smallsats have difficulty with mass production, even though you reduce the capacity to a lot of sats.

 

Well, darn. Anyone have any indication that LEO comsats will take off?

[StrandedonEarth]

Cheaper launches lowers the risk for prospecting probes. Once Planetary Resources et al find some industrially attractive minerals in accessible orbits there will be a lot of effort going into getting mining equipment on site. Imagine what finding a huge chunk of platinum would do for fuel cell technology and affordability

[fredinno]

40 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

Cheaper launches lowers the risk for prospecting probes. Once Planetary Resources et al find some industrially attractive minerals in accessible orbits there will be a lot of effort going into getting mining equipment on site. Imagine what finding a huge chunk of platinum would do for fuel cell technology and affordability

Planetary mining is a pain, as unless you have a monopoly, you risk losing everything due to crashing prices from Asteroid mining. And things like Planetary resources are still miles away from getting to even build a NEO telescope to find asteroids to mine..

[Rakaydos]

28 minutes ago, fredinno said:

Planetary mining is a pain, as unless you have a monopoly, you risk losing everything due to crashing prices from Asteroid mining. And things like Planetary resources are still miles away from getting to even build a NEO telescope to find asteroids to mine..

They had a survey probe- it was on spaceX's one launch failure.

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, Rakaydos said:

They had a survey probe- it was on spaceX's one launch failure.

It's a cubeast- sure, it's a great start, but I really doubt they would find the asteroids that they want with this thing. It's a great testbed, but you likely need something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_Object_Camera

to find the enough of the kind that they want. You know, the kind that can be redirected into a closer in, constant orbit to mine. I love cubesats as much as the other guy, but they are limited.

 

[SargeRho]

 

12 minutes ago, fredinno said:

It's a cubeast- sure, it's a great start, but I really doubt they would find the asteroids that they want with this thing. It's a great testbed, but you likely need something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_Object_Camera

to find the enough of the kind that they want. You know, the kind that can be redirected into a closer in, constant orbit to mine. I love cubesats as much as the other guy, but they are limited.

 

It was a testbed for some of the systems of the Arkyd space telescope.

[fredinno]

6 minutes ago, SargeRho said:

 

It was a testbed for some of the systems of the Arkyd space telescope.

Which is still likely too small, at 15kg. It's still a cubesat. Even B612's telescope is 1500 kg, and it is designed to capture 90% of asteroids down to 140m diamenter. Of course it will likely get smaller ones too, but the ones that can be redirected are on the order of 8 m diameter or smaller. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_Redirect_Mission

You really need a big, precise telescope to find those. Granted, you can just go straight to something like 3554 Amun, and use a space tug to bring material whenever the launch window opens, which is probably a better idea. In that case, it's probably better to rent a telescope to study it, or do something like a few NEO scouts,http://arc.aiaa.org/doi/abs/10.2514/6.2014-1703   and just skip the 'finding' part entirely. Of course, you would need to make money to fund it in the meantime, which is probably the only reason one would want to go the route they are going.

 

Asteroid Mining has only taken the first step of a hike to finally mining an asteroid.

[Mitchz95]

On 2016-01-25 at 1:19 AM, fredinno said:

Source?

^ That was from January of last year.

The plan seems to be for SpaceX to get experience building their own constellation of Internet satellites, then start mass-producing them and selling them.

[fredinno]

2 hours ago, Mitchz95 said:

^ That was from January of last year.

The plan seems to be for SpaceX to get experience building their own constellation of Internet satellites, then start mass-producing them and selling them.

They still have competition from fiber cables, and from things like Oorbcomm. It will not be a revolitionary increase in SpaceX's revenue. It will help, but it will be a secondary market, like LVs to OrbitalATK.

[Streetwind]

Do you mean OneWeb, maybe? Orbcomm is a business-to-business provider and does not sell to consumers.

[fredinno]

10 hours ago, Streetwind said:

Do you mean OneWeb, maybe? Orbcomm is a business-to-business provider and does not sell to consumers.

Yeah, sorry.

[Wjolcz]

I'm surprised nobody posted it yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3ZbLznMiws

Edited January 27, 2016 by Veeltch

[Albert VDS]

10 minutes ago, Veeltch said:

I'm surprised nobody posted it yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3ZbLznMiws

Because it's leaked footage.

[Elthy]

Scott Manley shared it on Twitter, good video but most scenes were published by SpaceX before...

[Rakaydos]

On the full scale separation test, on the counterweight... is that a Thwomp? Like from Mario?

[Rdivine]

Why does the crew dragon have 4 parachutes instead of 3? Is it a redundant feature? 

 

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, Rdivine said:

Why does the crew dragon have 4 parachutes instead of 3? Is it a redundant feature? 

 

Probably.

[Albert VDS]

Information about SpaceX' new rocket and spacecraft(commonly know as BFR and MCT) will be revealed in September at the International Aeronautical Congress.
Elon also mention they plan to send the first people to Mars in 2025.