What do you think about SpaceX?

[freakazoid13]

What do you think about SpaceX's progress over the years? Is it promising, disappointing, or not as cool as your KSP save? If your not to familiar with the history of SpaceX, then the video below is as brief an explanation as I can give you.
 

I don't mean to use this post to promote my own video but it got me thinking about how far SpaceX has come and how it's inspired me while playing KSP.

Start a discussion below! I'd love to see your opinion on SpaceX or just space exploration as a whole!

Edited April 24, 2016 by freakazoid13

[PB666]

11 minutes ago, freakazoid13 said:

What do you think about SpaceX's progress over the years? Is it promising, disappointing, or not as cool as your KSP save? If your not to familiar with the history of SpaceX, then the video below is as brief an explanation as I can give you.
 

I don't mean to use this post to promote my own video but it got me thinking about how far SpaceX has come and how it's inspired me while playing KSP.

Start a discussion below! I'd love to see your opinion on SpaceX or just space exploration as a whole!

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. They have a ways to go before they have a credible manned program. Otherwise, so far, looks pretty decent.

 

[Nibb31]

Do you really need a new thread for this ? Just about every thread naturally evolves into a SpaceX thread already.

SpaceX is a commercial launch provider, not a space program. Their business is to launch stuff into space for paying customers, mainly for the government. They manage to be cheaper than their competition, mainly due to a lean organization and cheap wages. They also surf on their PR machine, which gains them a cultish support from a young starry-eyed fan base. They do tend to hype up some ideas to feed them into the PR machine, and then lose focus and drop them, and they have a habit of delaying stuff. 

Edited April 25, 2016 by Nibb31

[Scotius]

Well, at least they have a young, starry-eyed fan-base. It's better than having a bunch of bored young people apathetic towards science and space exploration. Don't you think?

[kerbiloid]

For KSP modding - absolutely exactly promising.

[Nibb31]

28 minutes ago, Scotius said:

Well, at least they have a young, starry-eyed fan-base. It's better than having a bunch of bored young people apathetic towards science and space exploration. Don't you think?

Does it even matter ? Does Boeing or General Electric care about having a fan base ?

Don't get me wrong, I admire their actual achievements and they have done a lot to make space more affordable for governments and corporations. Their work on reusability is innovative and impressive. I just don't drink the kool-aid and I can't stand the lack of critical thinking from the fanboy brigade. Kids, don't take everything anybody tells you for granted.

Edited April 25, 2016 by Nibb31

[wumpus]

10 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

Do you really need a new thread for this ? Just about every thread naturally evolves into a SpaceX thread already.

SpaceX is a commercial launch provider, not a space program.

That part is really up to Elon Musk.  The moment it goes IPO, or he otherwise loses control of it (I can't imagine he is still the majority investor, but he might have structured the investments and loans such that as long as the bills get paid he still  has control) it becomes a "commercial launch provider".  Until then, it still can be whatever Elon Musk can afford (although I'd expect him to mainly be using space-x income).

According to wiki, Mr. Musk has something like a ~$15 Billion dollar fortune.  While a huge chunk of that presumably is based on what he could sell Space-x as a "commercial launch provider" for, it is hard to imagine he would notice the difference between being "merely a billionaire" and having a billion-dollar income in terms of pure money.  If he wants to be Henry Harriman (i.e. the "Man who sold the Moon" in the RAH story), he can be that.  He can't be Bill Gates, there just isn't enough income in any of his ventures.  It all comes down to how much money space-x can bring in, and how Mr. Musk can spend it.

ULA is a "commercial launch provider" and has to answer to investors.  Space-x is whatever Elon Musk can afford.

[tater]

Wumpus, your argument pertains far more to Bezos and BO than SpaceX I think. The possible income stream from SpaceX seems highly limited in a pure market, and the most cash is like the same place all the other launch providers look to, pork.

As an old dude, and jaded realist, I tend to agree with nibb31. That said, I like the new private space race, such as it is, and I appreciate the fact that it's even possible for some people to be starry-eyed right now. I was like that decades ago, then had it beaten out of me.

[Kryten]

55 minutes ago, tater said:

As an old dude, and jaded realist, I tend to agree with nibb31. That said, I like the new private space race, such as it is, and I appreciate the fact that it's even possible for some people to be starry-eyed right now. I was like that decades ago, then had it beaten out of me.

It's always possible to find something to be starry-eyed about. A decade ago it was SS1 and the idea of space travel for the masses that it was going to bring Real Soon Now, in the 80s 90s it was all the SSTO designs bouncing around that were going to revolutionise the space sector, in the 70s it was the large-scale space manufacturing that was going to happen to happen Real Soon and monsters like Sea Dragon that would require... and so on. There are even a few people preaching about the older fads and their Lost Potential to anyone who'll listen.

[Bill Phil]

I think SpaceX is interesting. They've had some major accomplishments. But they haven't reused a rocket, yet. And even if they do reuse rockets soon, it's going to take time to get prices much lower. 

I admire their accomplishments, but I don't really agree with the means... They hire younger workers and have a high turnover rate. This cuts cost by making sure that the workers are younger, and younger workers are paid less. The ends are pretty neat, but I don't appreciate the means.

[PB666]

3 minutes ago, Bill Phil said:

I think SpaceX is interesting. They've had some major accomplishments. But they haven't reused a rocket, yet. And even if they do reuse rockets soon, it's going to take time to get prices much lower. 

I admire their accomplishments, but I don't really agree with the means... They hire younger workers and have a high turnover rate. This cuts cost by making sure that the workers are younger, and younger workers are paid less. The ends are pretty neat, but I don't appreciate the means.

Don't cry for the workers they have space x on thier resume, am rocket scientist can travel. 

[Bill Phil]

Just now, PB666 said:

Don't cry for the workers they have space x on thier resume, am rocket scientist can travel. 

I just don't appreciate it as a way of cutting costs. 

They still have to find another job.

[PB666]

Just now, Bill Phil said:

I just don't appreciate it as a way of cutting costs. 

They still have to find another job.

Yes more than likely a higher paying job. 

[Bill Phil]

Just now, PB666 said:

Yes more than likely a higher paying job. 

The majority of jobs in America are low paying service jobs. Yeah they have SpaceX, and potentially other good things, on their resume, but they also have getting booted from SpaceX too. And as a way to get money between jobs they are likely to work a low paying job. 

[Frybert]

17 minutes ago, Bill Phil said:

I think SpaceX is interesting. They've had some major accomplishments. But they haven't reused a rocket, yet. And even if they do reuse rockets soon, it's going to take time to get prices much lower. 

I admire their accomplishments, but I don't really agree with the means... They hire younger workers and have a high turnover rate. This cuts cost by making sure that the workers are younger, and younger workers are paid less. The ends are pretty neat, but I don't appreciate the means.

This is how it works in any industry. Back when I was in the job market starting off there was a really interesting phenomenon I noticed. Every company that offered good pay and benefits wanted at least two years of experience in the field. And every company that wanted to hire me without it never wanted to compensate very well. Livable, but not great. So how do you get those two years or so of experience? By going to work for the companies that aren't going to pay you as well. Same goes here. 

[tater]

Honestly, part of their appeal is failure.

Seriously.

During the Space Race, one reason the US won---aside from that hard to miss series of Moon landings---was the fact that we did it in the bright light of day. Live, on TV, possible warts and all. I would argue that this is why SpaceX has more fans than Blue Origin's Soviet-style PR machine, they are more transparent. I think that from a "fan"standpoint, it likely invests people with a sense of ownership/team spirit/etc to participate, even if only by virtue of being an audience, in the process.

Edited April 26, 2016 by tater

[YNM]

The colinfurze of serious rocketry ? With proper protection of course (no safety tie !).

But yeah, super-open PR makes the most of it.

Edited April 26, 2016 by YNM

[kerbiloid]

You don't need alive dinosaur to sell dinosaur souvenirs.

[Frozen_Heart]

Though I doubt that some of their more far out there claims will end up happening, I'm amazed by what they have achieved in being able to re land rockets and cut the industry costs so much.

 

Also though I can't expect the Mars colony to ever happen, I'm still very hyped to see the MCT/BFR plans for it. Provides me with something to replicate in KSP!

[KSK]

8 hours ago, tater said:

Honestly, part of their appeal is failure.

Seriously.

During the Space Race, one reason the US won---aside from that hard to miss series of Moon landings---was the fact that we did it in the bright light of day. Live, on TV, possible warts and all. I would argue that this is why SpaceX has more fans than Blue Origin's Soviet-style PR machine, they are more transparent. I think that from a "fan"standpoint, it likely invests people with a sense of ownership/team spirit/etc to participate, even if only by virtue of being an audience, in the process.

I think it also helps that they are visibly making progress, even if that progress is a combination of necessary steps and recapitulating earlier achievements by other companies and organisations. Which is not to downplay them in the slightest - rockets are a solved problem but solved does not mean easy to repeat.

Falcon 1, multiple iterations of Falcon 9, Dragon, Dragon 2. Multiple iterations of the Merlin engine, each more powerful than the one before. Kestrel, Draco, SuperDraco. Missions to the ISS and if all goes well, crewed flights starting next year.

Then of course, there's the whole reusability program, which just ticks every geek box in me, even if the economics have yet to be proven. Somebody is finally trying to break that chicken-and-egg problem of which do you need first - cheaper launch vehicles or more demand for them.

Finally, there is the public image. SpaceX was founded to, well, go to space. Spaceflight isn't just another branch of the company - it's the whole reason for the company. Plus, whatever else you may think about the man, Elon does a fine job of self-deprecation and having a dry sense of humour about the test flight failures. Customer flight failures are another matter of course.

So yeah, I appreciate the harder-headed comments on this thread too but I don't find it hard to see why folks (including me) can get starry-eyed about them.

[Kryten]

8 hours ago, tater said:

Honestly, part of their appeal is failure.

Seriously.

During the Space Race, one reason the US won---aside from that hard to miss series of Moon landings---was the fact that we did it in the bright light of day. Live, on TV, possible warts and all. I would argue that this is why SpaceX has more fans than Blue Origin's Soviet-style PR machine, they are more transparent. I think that from a "fan"standpoint, it likely invests people with a sense of ownership/team spirit/etc to participate, even if only by virtue of being an audience, in the process.

The comparison doesn't really make a lot of sense; Blue are in suborbital testing, which SpaceX didn't steam, and never released footage of in some cases. Remember when F9R Dev blew up? They've been a lot more timely with updates on other activities like progress on Be-4, whereas we've not idea what development stage raptor is it, and we know nothing recent dragonfly other that we know from observers near McGregor.

[PB666]

3 hours ago, Kryten said:

The comparison doesn't really make a lot of sense; Blue are in suborbital testing, which SpaceX didn't steam, and never released footage of in some cases. Remember when F9R Dev blew up? They've been a lot more timely with updates on other activities like progress on Be-4, whereas we've not idea what development stage raptor is it, and we know nothing recent dragonfly other that we know from observers near McGregor.

We really like to see things blow up. SpaceX should take there old unsuitable launches, blast them about two miles up and make a fantastic blow at night, kaboom. Have little inflatable jebs come floating down from the sky. 

[Bill Phil]

12 hours ago, Frybert said:

This is how it works in any industry. Back when I was in the job market starting off there was a really interesting phenomenon I noticed. Every company that offered good pay and benefits wanted at least two years of experience in the field. And every company that wanted to hire me without it never wanted to compensate very well. Livable, but not great. So how do you get those two years or so of experience? By going to work for the companies that aren't going to pay you as well. Same goes here. 

According to some friends of mine that 2 years of experience was supposed to be found during college. Co op, internships, and the like.

[Frybert]

6 minutes ago, Bill Phil said:

According to some friends of mine that 2 years of experience was supposed to be found during college. Co op, internships, and the like.

Do these internships pay well?

[Bill Phil]

1 minute ago, Frybert said:

Do these internships pay well?

Depends... Some go for 30 bucks an hour and employ you on a good basis, alternating from school and work with a period of months.

The main difference is that interns don't have degrees yet, and are working for it while getting experience. 

Edited April 26, 2016 by Bill Phil