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ProtoJeb21

By ProtoJeb21
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tater

tater

Posted
Posted

This guy is nuts, and other networks have the same:

Why would anyone intentionally be on Key West during this. I get it, they can hide from the worst wind... what about surge, though? Is there a 2-3 story concrete building there?

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Green Baron

Green Baron

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Minus sat imagery, what mechanism did they use to know they had a hurricane in the deep ocean that never made landfall?

Then there should be a sharp step in the curve in the early 80s to support your claim that satellites made a big difference. But the curve goes done at that time, not up.

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It's no surprise at all the the numbers ramp up after the common use of jet/intercontinental aircraft.

But it doesn't. Where is the step in the 60s when frequent intercontinental traffic started ?

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To compare pre-sat data, you need to demonstrate that they had 100% ocean coverage capable of detecting the 3 types of storms and sorting them. That means calibrated weather ships spread around such that missing a storm was impossible.

I need to demonstrate nothing. You apparently want to disprove data from worldwide operating networks of scientists and officials. Approved data, published and undisputed in the community. Just plain figures.

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Even if the incidence has risen (which that graph does not support as per my comments above), then you need to demonstrate that there is no pattern over a multi-century timeframe (or longer) that fits other such patterns (what was hurricane activity like coming out of the previous ice age, for example?).

No. This is about a recent development. Past times had different conditions in all of the spheres. It'll be extremely unsciency to compare apples and bananas, also, that'll be partly that what you are complaining about: unconfirmed data.

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Also, we've already established that wind speeds could not even be measured before the cup anemometer, so no data earlier than 1850 is even possible to look at storms that happened to make landfall over weather stations.

"We" have established nothing, you have claimed so ;-) And the table isn't about hurricanes before 1850. Wind speeds could and can very well be measured, not as accurately as with a calibrated anemometer but in 5knots steps until 60 knots no problem. Just needs some knowledge and training. The table isn't even about exact wind speeds, just plain categories.

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As you go back, the error bars get bigger, and bigger. What is the uncertainty on the number of storms that were never seen in 1930, for example? How do you know what you don't know?

that graph doesn't  even have error bars (unneeded in modern times because we observe all cyclones).

Ships at sea file storm reports since the beginning of naval travel. But i don't work myself out any more for fear it is just plainly rejected.

 

But be it as it may, i concede all your objections and cut off any data before 1980. Now, how does the statistic look ? With the exception of the 5-year-gap 2012-2016 even worse ! A steep increase, isn't it ? So, what now, with this years season so far ? Still fighting against reality ;-) ?

 

Have a nice one, and stay safe everybody !

 

also p.s.: yeah, it is not certain how much is human caused in climate overall and hurricanes especially and probably never will be for sure because weather and climate isn't as exact as an engineering job. Tell that to the people who loose their houses and relatives and tell them that no action to avoid further deterioration is necessary. Was that cynical ?

 

Edited by Green Baron
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tater

tater

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Green Baron said:

Then there should be a sharp step in the curve in the early 80s to support your claim that satellites made a big difference. But the curve goes done at that time, not up.

I said once we had common intercontinental aircraft it would step up.

That makes detection far better alone, but sats make it impossible to miss any.

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But it doesn't. Where is the step in the 60s when frequent intercontinental traffic started ?

Such traffic was frequent starting in WW2, and was common in the 1950s.

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I need to demonstrate nothing. You apparently want to disprove data from worldwide operating networks of scientists and officials. Approved data, published and undisputed in the community. Just plain figures.

If you want to compare to the mid 1800s like that graph does you do. Those numbers should have uncertainty. We know for a fact that we miss ZERO TCs these days. You are saying they certainly missed zero in 1850 (since the graph has no uncertainty shown, it makes that claim).

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No. This is about a recent development. Past times had different conditions in all of the spheres. It'll be extremely unsciency to compare apples and bananas, also, that'll be partly that what you are complaining about: unconfirmed data.

We don't know it is recent if we don't know what it was like 2000 years ago, or 300. 

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"We" have established nothing, you have claimed so ;-) And the table isn't about hurricanes before 1850. Wind speeds could and can very well be measured, not as accurately as with a calibrated anemometer but in 5knots steps until 60 knots no problem. Just needs some knowledge and training. The table isn't even about exact wind speeds, just plain categories.

Ships at sea file storm reports since the beginning of naval travel. But i don't work myself out any more for fear it is just plainly rejected.

And how many sampled the inner parts of a hurricane? How do you know which storms they simply missed? You cannot. 

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But be it as it may, i concede all your objections and cut off any data before 1980. Now, how does the statistic look ? With the exception of the 5-year-gap 2012-2016 even worse ! A steep increase, isn't it ? So, what now, with this years season so far ? Still fighting against reality ;-) ?

I'm not arguing modern data in the least. Is the anthropogenic GW claim falsifiable in relation to this? I cannot say if it is steep or not, I have only about a century of halfway decent data to see (steel, steam vessels). NOAA agrees about attribution, too, what do they know.

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Have a nice one, and stay safe everybody 

also p.s.: yeah, it is not certain how much is human caused in climate overall and hurricanes especially and probably never will be for sure because weather and climate isn't as exact as an engineering job. Tell that to the people who loose their houses and relatives and tell them that no action to avoid further deterioration is necessary. Was that cynical ?

 

No, it's not certain, which is my entire point, nothing more.

"Action" is not free. You need to do a cost-benefit analysis. If models can tell us to the same accuracy we can figure costs, then maybe it's useful to mitigate. Spending a trillion a year to save a few 10s of billions is not worth it. Most of the property damage will be not because of GW, but because people build houses under 1m above sea level in hurricane zones preferentially to be near the water (and the water is the problem).

Edited by tater
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Green Baron

Green Baron

Posted
Posted (edited)

I won't comment on your other points because all of them have been addressed before, discussed in newspapers and magazines, anywhere every day, so i leave it. I don't like running in circles ;-)

12 hours ago, tater said:

"Action" is not free. You need to do a cost-benefit analysis.

But this one is a good good point indeed ! "cost of climate change"

Stay safe !

@Just Jim, i hope we get a sign of life from you (and anybody else in the line of water of course) tomorrow or as soon as the lines are up again :-)

Edited by Green Baron
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Just Jim

Just Jim

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Green Baron said:

@Just Jim, i hope we get a sign of life from you (and anybody else in the line of water of course) tomorrow or as soon as the lines are up again :-)

Right now the rain is starting, but the wind isn't too bad yet... Very quiet and creepy outside... I think even the birds have hunkered down.

I don't think I'll have the computer on much longer, but I'll chime in from my cell phone when I can.

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LordFerret

LordFerret

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Posted

This morning I see the storm has finally made it to the keys.

My friend, now retreated to the safety of a farm out in western-central North Carolina (I erred earlier, I thought she'd said South Carolina), tells me this morning that they're in a flurry of activity there... all the preparations to secure the horses.

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Just Jim

Just Jim

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OK, right this minute it's headed north, not NNW... this sucks for Naples, but is good news for us. The more it stays over land, the faster it will weaken. Newest forecast has it at around a Cat-2 by the time it passes overhead. That would be great! Cat-2 is way better than Cat-4.

As for Naples, I wish them the best.... One good thing, Naples and Miami are the 2 cities in Florida that are best built to handle a big storm.

Here comes the rain....

 

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SaturnianBlue

SaturnianBlue

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

Watching the news on and off all day... this storm is pretty much done. The news can stop beating this dead horse hurricane now. Really. They should move on at this point. Updates once an hour, I think, will suffice at this point.

It's still a category 2 with winds of 110 mph at 940 millibars that'll bring tropical storm conditions as far as Atlanta. Besides, it hasn't gotten up towards Tampa yet, and there's more damage to come with more rainfall and the storm surge.

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LordFerret

LordFerret

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

It's still a category 2 with winds of 110 mph at 940 millibars that'll bring tropical storm conditions as far as Atlanta. Besides, it hasn't gotten up towards Tampa yet, and there's more damage to come with more rainfall and the storm surge.

True. It's just at this point I think they could tone the hype down some, they're carrying on as though it was still a Cat 4 or 5. Already I'm seeing interviews of people admitting "it's not as bad as we thought it would be". That's not to say it's not dangerous or that more damage won't ensue, care still needs to be taken; It appears most on the scene are aware of that.

Edited by LordFerret
word use
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Just Jim

Just Jim

Posted
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4 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

True. It's just at this point I think they could tone the hype down some, they're carrying on as though it was still a Cat 4 or 5. Already I'm seeing interviews of people admitting "it's not as bad as we thought it would be". That's not to say it's not dangerous or that more damage will ensue, care still needs to be taken, and it appears most on the scene are aware of that.

I'm just north of Tampa... and from the looks of things, it will be only a cat-1 when it hits us, which is way better than a cat-4, like we thought it would be this morning when I got up.

Cat-1 ain't great, but definitely not as bad as we thought just a few hours ago... 

 

Edited by Just Jim
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Just Jim

Just Jim

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not the best video, but here's what we're getting right now, mostly just rain:

 

3 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

Good to hear you're doing ok. :cool:

I know what I'm in for later on this evening... my friend is destined to call me and rant how peeved she is, that she didn't really need to evacuate. I got a $100 right here says I get that call before midnight. LOL! :wink:

Still, better safe than sorry... this could have been much, much worse.

Edited by Just Jim
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Just Jim

Just Jim

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36 minutes ago, Ultimate Steve said:

@Just Jim just north of Tama? Near Zephyrhills? That's where my grandparents live!

Best of luck to you and everyone else down there!

I know where that is, really nice area. I hope they're okay. Our power is blinking bad, and the winds are really picking up. The really amazing thing is watching these bright blue explosions outside, like blue lightning. I'm pretty sure it's the power transformers blowing up.

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SaturnianBlue

SaturnianBlue

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Hurricane Irma is now a low-end category 2, but the wind field expanded dramatically—tropical storm force winds almost stretch from Key West to South Carolina! 

Jose is a low-end category 3 and will weaken, but the storm stalls at that point. At this point it is far too difficult to predict what will happen, but a loop like Hurricane Jeanne did back in 2004 could happen (emphasis on "could"). 

After that, the tropics might finally settle down a bit—there's a tropical wave out in the atlantic, but even if it forms, it'll be far from land for the next week. 

The East Pacific has 3 areas of interest for formation, and they all seem to overlap each other. I'm curious to see what comes out of that. The East Pacific was really active in July, but it seems to have really quieted down since then.

Edited by SaturnianBlue
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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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6 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Hurricane Irma is now a low-end category 2, but the wind field expanded dramatically—tropical storm force winds almost stretch from Key West to South Carolina! 

Jose is a low-end category 3 and will weaken, but the storm stalls at that point. At this point it is far too difficult to predict what will happen, but a loop like Hurricane Jeanne did back in 2004 could happen (emphasis on "could"). 

After that, the tropics might finally settle down a bit—there's a tropical wave out in the atlantic, but even if it forms, it'll be far from land for the next week. 

The East Pacific has 3 areas of interest for formation, and they all seem to overlap each other. I'm curious to see what comes out of that. The East Pacific was really active in July, but it seems to have really quieted down since then.

Jose's future path is...weird. The models for the next week or so show it looping around like crazy while moving north and possibly hitting New England or Atlantic Canada. 

The same models also suggest that one of the areas of interest in the EPac could develop into a VERY strong hurricane - Cat 4 or 5 - before making landfall in Baja California, moving into the bay there, re-intensifying, and making a second landfall in Mexico. The next EPac name would be Max.

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