Weather Chat Megathread

[XLjedi]

2 minutes ago, Cabbink said:

Irma is actually predicted to possibly rebound from cuba.

Rebound from what?  There isn't a category 6!

Not sure what your source is, but any interaction with land/islands has a weakening effect.  I don't see anyone locally or out of the National Hurricane center suggesting it rolls into Cuba a Cat-5 and comes out stronger.  Currently, it comes into Cuba a 5 and up through the Keys/Miami as a 4.  Which is still quite nasty and could see winds in the 150 range at the eye wall.

This is how the Florida folks see it:

http://www.wptv.com/weather/hurricane/tropical-storm-irma-forms-in-atlantic-ocean

[Just Jim]

OK, this is and isn't weather related, but right now the biggest problem here (I'm just north of Tampa, Florida) is no gas or water... everyone is buying everything up as fast as they can, and the gas stations and stores can't keep up. Luckily I have a full tank, and we have lots of bottled water already stocked.

A couple more days of this and every store in town will be completely empty.

[XLjedi]

13 minutes ago, Just Jim said:

OK, this is and isn't weather related, but right now the biggest problem here (I'm just north of Tampa, Florida) is no gas or water... everyone is buying everything up as fast as they can, and the gas stations and stores can't keep up. Luckily I have a full tank, and we have lots of bottled water already stocked.

A couple more days of this and every store in town will be completely empty.

Yeah, I gotta make the trip up to Tallahassee and gas is a concern... thankfully we have a near full 80 gal tank and I should be able to drive that all the way through Georgia if needed.  I'm seeing 11 hour driving estimates right now for what's usually a 6hr trip.

I imagine I-75 is a nightmare in your area. ...do you see any alternate routes along the coast north of Tampa?

 

[Just Jim]

From what I can see on the local news, right now 75 is still your best bet. But you might hit some really slow spots. I'm on US-19, and all up and down gas stations are emptying out, so I wouldn't come this way.

Having a huge gas tank will help a lot... also driving with the air off and windows open, if you can handle it, could stretch it a little. Just be careful. And good luck.

[LordFerret]

Last I saw, it was reported that all gas stations in the Keys have closed. They're working their way north. The impression I got however, was that they were not running out of gas... just closing and evacuating.

[ProtoJeb21]

Bad news for th Leeward Islands. Hurricane Jose is undergoing rapid intensification and has become the third major hurricane of the season, with winds of 120 mph. May become a strong Category 4 before weakening. Katia SHOULD also be intensifying...but it's not. Weird. There's nothing to inhibit intensification in the first place!

[Cydonian Monk]

11 minutes ago, Just Jim said:

I'm on US-19

Really? I miss Rt 19. Lived next to it for seven or eight years.... Different state though.  One of the few Federal routes I've driven most of the length of.

 

47 minutes ago, Just Jim said:

everyone is buying everything up as fast as they can, and the gas stations and stores can't keep up.

We're still in that kind of a mess over here; I'm starting to wonder if I'll be able to fill up my car next week or not. Will probably need to drive out of town several miles to find a gas station - All three near my place are out, one of them isn't expecting a truck for a week. The ones between there and work may or may not have water in their tanks, the others are usually sold out or have lines. It's getting better though.

Grocery stores are a bit odd right now. Bread has mostly returned, milk and eggs are still limited to 2 per customer at my local store (I'm still not sure what 2 eggs gets you.... I'm assuming they mean 2 dozen, but the sign has no units). All the non-essential stuff just isn't being shipped in, so the stores are stocking the empty spots with what they had on hand: Halloween Candy. The whole store is orange and black.

 

Best of luck to those of you in Florida.

One of my friends is down there on vacation visiting his dad, who has lived in FL for decades and doesn't evacuate for anything. 'Course they're in a big concrete condo building and well above any storm surge, so they should be ok. Haven't heard from the rest of the folks I know yet, especially the folks near the Cape, but this is just another noisy rain storm to them anyway. 

[Cabbink]

4 hours ago, XLjedi said:

Rebound from what?  There isn't a category 6!

Not sure what your source is, but any interaction with land/islands has a weakening effect.  I don't see anyone locally or out of the National Hurricane center suggesting it rolls into Cuba a Cat-5 and comes out stronger.  Currently, it comes into Cuba a 5 and up through the Keys/Miami as a 4.  Which is still quite nasty and could see winds in the 150 range at the eye wall.

This is how the Florida folks see it:

http://www.wptv.com/weather/hurricane/tropical-storm-irma-forms-in-atlantic-ocean

Rebound from catagory 4 on landfall from cuba.

[ProtoJeb21]

Uhh...Irma's central pressure just dropped down to 919 mbar. Should we be concerned?

[Maelstrom Vortex]

http://spaceweather.com/ Geomagnetic storm in progress. G4. Severe.Possible low latitude auroras. 

13 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Uhh...Irma's central pressure just dropped down to 919 mbar. Should we be concerned?

Yes. Lower the mbar, stronger the storm. Tip got to 870 something, was 1,300 miles wide in its wind field.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Maelstrom Vortex

[ProtoJeb21]

3 minutes ago, Maelstrom Vortex said:

http://spaceweather.com/ Geomagnetic storm in progress. G4. Severe.Possible low latitude auroras. 

Yes. Lower the mbar, stronger the storm. Tip got to 870 something, was 1,300 miles wide in its wind field.

I know about lower pressure meaning a more intense storm. I'm just wondering outloud if we should be concerned of more intensification or prolonged Category 5 duration. Irma is already forecasted to hit Florida and become a 900 mbar storm in a few days. I don't think it needs to get any stronger than that.

[Maelstrom Vortex]

6 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I know about lower pressure meaning a more intense storm. I'm just wondering outloud if we should be concerned of more intensification or prolonged Category 5 duration. Irma is already forecasted to hit Florida and become a 900 mbar storm in a few days. I don't think it needs to get any stronger than that.

We just got a major energy dump from the sun. #NotOptimistic.

[cubinator]

54 minutes ago, Maelstrom Vortex said:

http://spaceweather.com/ Geomagnetic storm in progress. G4. Severe.Possible low latitude auroras. 

 

I'm keeping my mid latitude, north facing bedroom window shade open tonight! Although as usual per these storms it's kind of cloudy. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by cubinator

[adsii1970]

I love a good lightening storm...

[qzgy]

Damn, too far south for the aurora.

[Cydonian Monk]

24 minutes ago, qzgy said:

too far south for the aurora.

Ditto. Why do these CMEs never happen when I'm way up north?

[ProtoJeb21]

Good news: Irma has weakened.

Bad news: not by much. It's still an incredibly powerful Cat 4 with 155 mph winds. Also, the GFS model still predicts re-strengthening south of Florida, and the outlook is even worse than yesterday! Irma may reach pressures as low as 890 mbar before striking southern Florida, likely as a Category 5. The NHC is already predicting the storm to be quite close to Cat 5 intensity at landfall.

[The Space Dino]

26 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Good news: Irma has weakened.

Bad news: not by much. It's still an incredibly powerful Cat 4 with 155 mph winds. Also, the GFS model still predicts re-strengthening south of Florida, and the outlook is even worse than yesterday! Irma may reach pressures as low as 890 mbar before striking southern Florida, likely as a Category 5. The NHC is already predicting the storm to be quite close to Cat 5 intensity at landfall.

Hopefully it doesn't pick up too much energy on the way to Florida.

[Maelstrom Vortex]

It appears I can predict some major earthquakes.. now if I can just predict the place, I'll be rich:

September 6 at 4:11pm · X10 solar flare preceeded Fukishima Earthquake and this flare may have coronal mass ejection towards Earth. Be aware, possible increase in global seismic events and strength over the coming days Today's is an X 9.3 quite a bit weaker given the strength of flares increase exponentially by scale, but still quite a bit of power in it

 

 

 

http://abcnews.go.com/International/magnitude-earthquake-rocks-southern-mexico-felt-capital/story?id=49695667

[DarkOwl57]

10 hours ago, adsii1970 said:

I love a good lightening storm...

 

10 hours ago, qzgy said:

Damn, too far south for the aurora.

 

10 hours ago, Cydonian Monk said:

Ditto. Why do these CMEs never happen when I'm way up north?

*Looks outside* Sun, Sun, Sun, Sun, oh wait is that a clo- oh no; that's my eyes going out from STARING AT THE FRICKIN SUN ALL DAY LONG. I guess West Texas is doomed for eternal sunshine while the East is doomed for eternal flooding...

[ProtoJeb21]

An aircraft recon mission is finishing up its mission into Hurrricane Jose. It recorded winds of up to 115 knots (132 mph) and a pressure of  941 mbar. For comparison, Jose had 125 mph winds and a pressure of 952 mbar as of the 5:00 am EST advisory. 

There is also another recon mission currently flying into Irma. Let's see what it finds...

[Glitchgamer12]

We had 5 typhoones this summer  

Edited September 8, 2017 by Glitchgamer12

[adsii1970]

1 hour ago, DarkOwl57 said:

*Looks outside* Sun, Sun, Sun, Sun, oh wait is that a clo- oh no; that's my eyes going out from STARING AT THE FRICKIN SUN ALL DAY LONG. I guess West Texas is doomed for eternal sunshine while the East is doomed for eternal flooding...

We've had a lot of sunshine for about the last ten days. I am ready for some storms. I love cloudy days...

17 hours ago, Just Jim said:

OK, this is and isn't weather related, but right now the biggest problem here (I'm just north of Tampa, Florida) is no gas or water... everyone is buying everything up as fast as they can, and the gas stations and stores can't keep up. Luckily I have a full tank, and we have lots of bottled water already stocked.

A couple more days of this and every store in town will be completely empty.

This is good for the local economy, though!

 

[Just Jim]

6 minutes ago, adsii1970 said:

This is good for the local economy, though!

Yes and no...

In an unrelated, but related, story I just saw, our state DA, Pam Bondi, is already going after Chevron for price gouging all over the state. And anyone else that might try it. Go Pam!!!  

[ProtoJeb21]

UPDATE: It turns out there has been a SECOND recon mission in Irma for quite some time now. There's also a flight in Hurricane Katia and has reported a lower pressure of 975 mbar.