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ProtoJeb21

By ProtoJeb21
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SaturnianBlue

SaturnianBlue

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24 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Maria is now the tenth strongest Atlantic hurricane in terms of pressure, at 910 mbar. However, it isn't close to beating out Irma's absolutely monstrous 185 mph winds. 

Now upgraded to 909 millibars and 175 mph winds—10th place for lowest pressure in the Atlantic basin, kicking Ivan and "Cuba" off the list.

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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1 hour ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Um...

recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA_dropsonde14_2017

What?!?!

168 kts=~193 MPH... (If true, Maria is the strongest storm in the atlantic ever)...

Edit: Keep in mind this is a Dropsonde, which is more reliable than the SFMR instruments that get rain-contaminated a lot.

That's not the only ridiculous thing about its analyzed intensity. The other recon flight has done a fifth pass through the eye, and the pressure+wind line graph shows a pressure down to 905 mbar. However, the flight map with winds and pressure labeled says that it's at 911 mbar. Which one is it?!

And if this thing is a 190 mph storm...oh good Kraken is Puerto Rico in enormous trouble. I did not think any storm would manage to beat out Irma in both pressure and wind speed, but this may be the case. 

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Ten Key

Ten Key

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2 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Um...

recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA_dropsonde14_2017

What?!?!

168 kts=~193 MPH... (If true, Maria is the strongest storm in the atlantic ever)...

Edit: Keep in mind this is a Dropsonde, which is more reliable than the SFMR instruments that get rain-contaminated a lot.

Dropsondes record instantaneous "snap shot" wind speeds, and do no reflect sustained wind values. Raw dropsonde data is typically put through an "averaging" process to arrive at estimated sustained wind speeds. In this case, that 168 knots is probably more like 125-130 knots. 

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SaturnianBlue

SaturnianBlue

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39 minutes ago, Ten Key said:

Dropsondes record instantaneous "snap shot" wind speeds, and do no reflect sustained wind values. Raw dropsonde data is typically put through an "averaging" process to arrive at estimated sustained wind speeds. In this case, that 168 knots is probably more like 125-130 knots. 

It does say that the mean wind in the lowest 150 meters is 158 its, which is also really high. In any case, the NHC chose not to base their advisory on this reading.

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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It's official: Hurricane Maria has now made landfall in Puerto Rico, becoming the third most intense United States hurricane landfall in history. It smashed ashore with 155 mph winds and a pressure of 917 mbar, surpassing Irma's landfall intensity in the Florida Keys at 130 mph and 929 mbar. However, Irma is the most powerful when it comes to ANY landfall, with 185 mph winds and a pressure of 914 mbar in the Leeward and Virgin Islands. 

Forecast modes for Maria are concerning. It looks likely to regain Category 5 status when it moves into a literal "hot spot" just north of the Bahamas, and it might make landfall in New England next week. Kraken Krap. 

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LordFerret

LordFerret

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13 hours ago, Ten Key said:

Dropsondes record instantaneous "snap shot" wind speeds, and do no reflect sustained wind values. Raw dropsonde data is typically put through an "averaging" process to arrive at estimated sustained wind speeds. In this case, that 168 knots is probably more like 125-130 knots.

The movie Twister comes to mind, with the little science transmitting packages released by 'Dorothy'. I have to wonder why: With today's technology, why aren't there dropsondes which ride with the winds (balloons), never mind just falling down through them (chutes).

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tater

tater

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You need to measure the speed relative to something. I suppose you could drop something that moves with the wind, then look at the groundspeed averaged over some time interval. It's complex because the precise drop location matters, as the storm is also moving.

Looking at ground weather station data, the storms always seem to gust in the range of the hurricane category, but the sustained winds generally seem far lower than what is required.

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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Puerto Rico has really beat up Hurricane Maria. It's now down to a Category 3 with 115 mph winds and a pressure of 960 mbar. However, Maria's convection structure remains very well organized, and an eye has already reformed. In addition, GFS models suggest that Maria should begin re-strengthening as soon as tomorrow morning, and could become a high-end Category 4 or even a Category 5 again by Sunday. 

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TheKosanianMethod

TheKosanianMethod

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3 hours ago, LordFerret said:

The movie Twister comes to mind, with the little science transmitting packages released by 'Dorothy'. I have to wonder why: With today's technology, why aren't there dropsondes which ride with the winds (balloons), never mind just falling down through them (chutes).

Step 1: Ask why you don't have it.

Step 2: Design it.

Step 3: Patent it.

Step 4: ???

Step 5: Profit.

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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27 minutes ago, RoadRunnerAerospace said:

Maria go away!!!!!!! *blows heavily at it*

If it makes landfall in new england..... Its going to be interesting over here!

You're in New England as well? Cool!

Currently, Maria's long-term models are very uncertain. For all we know as of now, it can go anywhere from a direct North Carolina landfall to turning out to sea near Bermuda. It has a 7-day forecast error of something like 500-1000 miles, which means quite a lot of uncertainty. I wouldn't worry too much until a few days before it's closest approach. 

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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Hurricane Maria's eye has fully regenerated. It's looking a lot more organized and powerful than your regular Category 2/3, but as of now it's still holding that intensity. If it does resume strengthening it won't be until it has moved a significant distance away from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. 

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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It seems like Hurricane Maria is back to Category 4 status. The latest aircraft recon pass through the storm's eye showed a significantly lower pressure of 954 mbar (down from 960 mbar a few hours ago) with winds of 120 knots (about 140 mph).

Edited by ProtoJeb21
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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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Over the last day, Hurricane Maria's eye has collapsed and its structure has remained somewhat "blobby" and disorganized. It even appeared to have TWO eyes, as there were two dips in pressure at the center of the storm this morning. However, while the center is not perfectly organized, the eye is now back. I'm assuming Maria underwent an EWRC, which may cause it to strengthen into a Category 4 again. The GFS, HMON, CMS, and other models are all expecting a rather significant increase in intensity by late Sunday and early Monday, possibly close to Category 5 intensity.

HU08Ika.gif

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TheKosanianMethod

TheKosanianMethod

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46 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Over the last day, Hurricane Maria's eye has collapsed and its structure has remained somewhat "blobby" and disorganized. It even appeared to have TWO eyes, as there were two dips in pressure at the center of the storm this morning. However, while the center is not perfectly organized, the eye is now back. I'm assuming Maria underwent an EWRC, which may cause it to strengthen into a Category 4 again. The GFS, HMON, CMS, and other models are all expecting a rather significant increase in intensity by late Sunday and early Monday, possibly close to Category 5 intensity.

HU08Ika.gif

Beautiful yet scary.

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