Weather Chat Megathread

[SaturnianBlue]

 

The tropics are starting to resume activity. Tropical Storm Ramon has formed in the EPac out of the Central American Gyre, and Invest 90L (also from the gyre) is likely to develop today. Most forecast models agree that 90L/Future Nate will pass by the Yucatán Peninsula after bringing heavy rain to Honduras/Nicaragua, then striking Louisiana's Gulf Coast. Rapid intensification seems likely among the 29-30 degree Celsius waters of the western Caribbean. However, one of the GFS modes suggests something interesting: Future Nate may split into TWO tropical cyclones while in the Gulf. It probably won't happen, but it does seem quite interesting. 

It is now Tropical Depression 16, and the official NHC forecast has the storm going into the east gulf coast as a category 1, but they do suggest a potential for rapid intensification, as you mentioned.

Tropical Storm Ramon seems to be keeping a consistent theme with the recent EPAC storms—weak, short-lived, and drifting near the Mexican coast.

[Just Jim]

 

It is now Tropical Depression 16, and the official NHC forecast has the storm going into the east gulf coast as a category 1, but they do suggest a potential for rapid intensification, as you mentioned.

Yeah, that one is a little close... hopefully it doesn't develop into anything really big

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

Lol, read ramon as ramen

[ProtoJeb21]

TD16 has officially become Tropical Storm Nate, and has already killed 17 people due to mudslides and flooding for torrential rainfall. I hope I'm wrong, but it looks like Nate is going to end up as one of those high-casualty storms that completely douses some impoverish nation(s), similar to Hurricane Gordon, Hurricane Matthew, and...um...Tropical Storm Matthew. Not the 2016 one; back in 2010 there was a tropical storm names Matthew that killed over 130 people in Central America. 

Meanwhile, it looks like there could be a few more tropical cyclones forming this month. The NHC notes that an area of low pressure is likely to form near the Azores and could potentially develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone early next week. Multiple forecast models show it developing into a tropical depression. Other models show the possibility of maybe some other rather weak cyclones developing in the open Atlantic sometime next week. 

[SaturnianBlue]

Nate is really beginning to ramp up—thunderstorms consolidating around the center, and very cold cloud tops—this could start a phase of rapid intensification, maybe. It's done this in just a few hours, which is quite concerning—before that, Nate was a rather disorganized storm. Instead of becoming a hurricane while speeding near the gulf coast, we could see one not long after it passes the Yucatan.

The low in the Central Atlantic is becoming increasingly likely to generate a (sub)tropical storm. Like Lee, we'll probably see a rather harmless system.

Edited October 6, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[DarkOwl57]

Looks like some pleasant weather might be coming our way soon. Every time there's a hurricane in the Gulf we've always got some nice clouds and pretty high rain chances

[WinkAllKerb'']

another day on earth nothing special, some rain, some sun some night, some weird stuff some normal stuff some pain (a lot) some joy (a lot), some death some birth

Edited October 6, 2017 by WinkAllKerb''

[ProtoJeb21]

Tropical Storm Nate continues to gain strength as its wind field increases and convection wraps around its center. It will most definitely become a hurricane tomorrow. Meanwhile, this one newly formed subtropical low is getting more and more likely to develop into a new cyclone. Most forecast models show this thing becoming a depression or named storm by as soon as tomorrow. It may even become a hurricane as it stalls in the central Atlantic. The next name would be Ophelia. Believe it or not, there may be up to TWO more depressions potentially forming by mid-week. 

[cratercracker]

While Americans have "fun" with hurricanes,

I have ''FUN" with Moscow's all day-long grey sky.

Edited October 6, 2017 by cratercracker

[Just Jim]

2 minutes ago, cratercracker said:

While Americans have "fun" with hurricanes,

I am hanging out with dem boys

https://i.imgur.com/CtGoo8C.mp4

Wow... a couple of them have nearly as much energy as a small hurricane!!!  

As far as this newest storm, if it follows the current path, we're only going to get nicked along the eastern edge here, if we get anything at all. Probably just some rain. But my thoughts are with the folk up in the panhandle... hopefully they're prepared.

[DeltaDizzy]

29 minutes ago, cratercracker said:

While Americans have "fun" with hurricanes,

I have ''FUN" with Moscow's all day-long grey sky.

Is this like a record or something?

Nate is the 6th I think.

Lets see...

Harvey, Katia, Jose, Irma, Maria, Nate

prob missed one

[ProtoJeb21]

12 minutes ago, DeltaDizzy said:

Is this like a record or something?

Nate is the 6th I think.

Lets see...

Harvey, Katia, Jose, Irma, Maria, Nate

prob missed one

There was Hurricane Franklin in August, which hit Veracruz, Mexico as a Category 1 almost exactly a year after Earl. Before that was Tropical Storm Cindy, which struck the same areas Nate is threatening. If you go back even further...by about a day ...you get weak little Tropical Storm Bret making landfall in Trinidad and Tobago of all places. 

So this year there's been a total of EIGHT land falling Atlantic tropical cyclones, six of them as hurricanes and three as major hurricanes. Phew. 

5 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Nate is really beginning to ramp up—thunderstorms consolidating around the center, and very cold cloud tops—this could start a phase of rapid intensification, maybe. It's done this in just a few hours, which is quite concerning—before that, Nate was a rather disorganized storm. Instead of becoming a hurricane while speeding near the gulf coast, we could see one not long after it passes the Yucatan.

The low in the Central Atlantic is becoming increasingly likely to generate a (sub)tropical storm. Like Lee, we'll probably see a rather harmless system.

That's interesting. I was aware of Nate's rather quick increase in organization along with its continued strengthening, but I didn't realize signs of RI were popping up already. Definitely concerning. I don't know how many more catastrophic United States hurricanes our government can take. At least $200 billion will be needed to fully fix up areas smashed by Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Mother Nature, we DO NOT NEED ANOTHER MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR HURRICANE CATASTROPHE. Srsly plz stahp.

That "future Ophelia" probably won't affect land for a few days, but it may head towards the Iberian Peninusla late next week. It may end up like 2005's Hurricane Vince, which would be VERY meteorologically interesting. This will likely be a cool system to track.

 

[DeltaDizzy]

well its luck I live in Indiana then.

suckers

[SaturnianBlue]

3 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

There was Hurricane Franklin in August, which hit Veracruz, Mexico as a Category 1 almost exactly a year after Earl. Before that was Tropical Storm Cindy, which struck the same areas Nate is threatening. If you go back even further...by about a day ...you get weak little Tropical Storm Bret making landfall in Trinidad and Tobago of all places. 

So this year there's been a total of EIGHT land falling Atlantic tropical cyclones, six of them as hurricanes and three as major hurricanes. Phew. 

That's interesting. I was aware of Nate's rather quick increase in organization along with its continued strengthening, but I didn't realize signs of RI were popping up already. Definitely concerning. I don't know how many more catastrophic United States hurricanes our government can take. At least $200 billion will be needed to fully fix up areas smashed by Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Mother Nature, we DO NOT NEED ANOTHER MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR HURRICANE CATASTROPHE. Srsly plz stahp.

That "future Ophelia" probably won't affect land for a few days, but it may head towards the Iberian Peninusla late next week. It may end up like 2005's Hurricane Vince, which would be VERY meteorologically interesting. This will likely be a cool system to track.

 

Nate is nearly a hurricane now. If there wasn't a strong indication of an intensifying storm so far...

Those are some VERY cold cloud tops.

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue It seems likely that Hurricane Nate will become significantly stronger. Current aircraft reconnaissance flights have found winds up to Category 2 strength. That, and counting in Nate's cold cloud tops and the very favorable conditions it's in, it may end up as a strong Category 2 or maybe even a Category 3. 

Meanwhile, Future-Ophelia is very close to becoming a subtropical depression. Winds are at 35 mph, with a pressure down to 1010 mbar. 

[SaturnianBlue]

39 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

@SaturnianBlue It seems likely that Hurricane Nate will become significantly stronger. Current aircraft reconnaissance flights have found winds up to Category 2 strength. That, and counting in Nate's cold cloud tops and the very favorable conditions it's in, it may end up as a strong Category 2 or maybe even a Category 3. 

Meanwhile, Future-Ophelia is very close to becoming a subtropical depression. Winds are at 35 mph, with a pressure down to 1010 mbar. 

I'm pretty sure the winds are flight-level, so that doesn't necessarily translate to a Category 2. The storm hasn't cleared out its eye as well. In my opinion, there just isn't enough time for Nate to intensify too much more.

Edited October 7, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Nate is now at 90 mph and is forecasted to make landfall as a Category 2. This would make it the FOURTH Gulf hurricane landfall this year alone, including Franklin and Katia in Mexico. Right now, Nate has yet to clear out its eye, but it has an impressive circle of convection around the center. A visible eye should appear within the next few hours. 

[tater]

Weather here a couple days ago...

 

[Just Jim]

Actually kind of nice here... Nate is too far west to do much. Hope everyone up north where it's heading is OK.

 

On 10/6/2017 at 7:36 PM, DeltaDizzy said:

Is this like a record or something?

Nate is the 6th I think.

Lets see...

Harvey, Katia, Jose, Irma, Maria, Nate

prob missed one

I don't think so... there was one year... maybe 10-12 years ago, I can't remember exactly off hand, but 4 big ones went over us all within something like a month... That was a really wild year! 

[DeltaDizzy]

*nate is declared*

*I be like*

"Oh look, another one."

*proceeds with other stuff*

[SaturnianBlue]

2 hours ago, Just Jim said:

Actually kind of nice here... Nate is too far west to do much. Hope everyone up north where it's heading is OK.

 

I don't think so... there was one year... maybe 10-12 years ago, I can't remember exactly off hand, but 4 big ones went over us all within something like a month... That was a really wild year! 

2004? That year really was crazy—Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all hit Florida.

[tater]

Supposed to be below freezing here Monday night.

[ProtoJeb21]

Invest-91L has developed into a fully tropical cyclone, first as TD17 and now into Tropical Storm Ophelia. It's supposed to meander south of the Azores islands for up to a week, before eventually moving towards Europe. It may make landfall on the islands, but it seems more likely to affect the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) or the U.K. as a post-tropical cyclone. Ophelia has a chance of becoming the tenth straight hurricane of the 2017 season. The tiny storm is not expected the move much, so it can easily keep on intensifying until it moves into less favorable conditions. Some models predict Ophelia becoming a Category 1 or Category 2 storm. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Update on Ophelia: it seems likely to become a major hurricane later this week. Tropical Tidbits.com has 5 different models used for individual tropical cyclones: HWRF, HWRF-P, HMON, GFS, and CMC. The latter two don't predict much for Ophelia, which is in direct contrast with the NHC forecast and the other three models. HWRF predicts Ophelia reaching 100 knot (115 mph) winds with a minimum pressure around 970-965 mbar. HWRF-P predicts a maximum intensity of 110 knots (130 mph) and ~960 mbar, and the HMON model is the most extreme - 130 knot (150 mph) winds with a pressure around 950 mbar or less. This Ophelia could potentially get close to or match the intensity of 2011's Ophelia. However, I find the HWRF-P and HMON models to be rather extreme for this storm, so Category 2 or Category 3 intensity seems more likely. Still, a major hurricane at this latitude/longitude and time is rather...odd. 

[DarkOwl57]

So here in West Texas, we have 2 kinds of cold fronts. The first is the nice ones. They bring lightning storms, rain, and the occasional 70 degree day. Then, there are the cold fronts that are total buggers in the royal butt. Guess which one we just had? I'll give you a hint. Today was the first time I had to break out the gloves this year. Still stumped? Okay... I'll just tell you. It's the second one. Around 40-30 degrees, after a pleasant 80 degree day yesterday. West Texas weather runs like clockwork. That is, if the clock's 3 hours off, the house is on fire, and the apocalypse is yesterdays news