KSC and Hurricane Matthew

[DerekL1963]

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2016/10/05/ksc-closing-1-pm-today-matthew-approaches/91602312/

KSC/CCAFS has gone to Hurricane Condition 1 - everything battened down and the base and facilities closed except for the rideout crew.

[todofwar]

Yup, Florida is finally due. And this thing is apparently going to do a loop de loop and slam south Florida after it trashes north florida. 

[DerekL1963]

1 minute ago, todofwar said:

Yup, Florida is finally due. And this thing is apparently going to do a loop de loop and slam south Florida after it trashes north florida. 

http://www.snopes.com/2016/10/05/hurricane-matthew-loop-scenario-is-not-very-likely/

That's speculation from a limited number of people, widely spread on the 'net (and sadly picked up on and repeated by irresponsible major media out for sensation) and thus giving a false impression of being authoritative.  It's possible but (so far as we know at the moment) not probable.  Right now, it's just way too early to make reliable predictions beyond the next twenty four hours or so.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew

Notice how the potential error in the storm's position grows as the time from the prediction increases.

I'm hoping it stays on the current track and stays offshore - I've got friends and family all along the coast from Miami to the Outer Banks.

[tater]

Well, they've had a good run with no hits---the whole country has, really, no majors in what, 10-11 years, and hardly any minor hurricanes, either?

[Scotius]

Let's hope it will miss this time too. Too many lives at stake. Not to mention property, environmental impact and so on.

[tater]

FWIW, this is what the National Hurricane Center says:

So they have it tracking S, then SW, though just as a tropical storm. What it does after Tuesday is anyone's guess.

[todofwar]

43 minutes ago, DerekL1963 said:

http://www.snopes.com/2016/10/05/hurricane-matthew-loop-scenario-is-not-very-likely/

That's speculation from a limited number of people, widely spread on the 'net (and sadly picked up on and repeated by irresponsible major media out for sensation) and thus giving a false impression of being authoritative.  It's possible but (so far as we know at the moment) not probable.  Right now, it's just way too early to make reliable predictions beyond the next twenty four hours or so.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew

Notice how the potential error in the storm's position grows as the time from the prediction increases.

I'm hoping it stays on the current track and stays offshore - I've got friends and family all along the coast from Miami to the Outer Banks.

I'm a native of Miami so well versed in watching hurricanes. I'm hoping it doesn't come back around, but the possibility is strong enough to be concerned about.

[tater]

Stay safe!

[Scotius]

Live transmission on YT. Chat is as always going bonkers. Sheesh....

 

[tater]

That weatherman has it going ashore right at the Cape.

[Scotius]

Bahamas are right in the path of the storm. That is not good - there isn't much of high ground people could go to when flooding starts. Not good at all. As for the KSC - new parts should be alright. They were built to withstand a very strong hurricane. Older parts - not so much.

[Mitchz95]

It's a good thing there aren't any interplanetary missions due to launch this week. I highly doubt they'd make their departure windows.

[todofwar]

There is something eerie about watching the radar feed right now. Just seeing the outer bands and then eye emerge like a monster out of the fog. Can only imagine what it would be like if that was all we had to spot these things.

[nascarlaser1]

Who here ran to this thread because they thought KSC meant Kerbal space center, and not Kennedy space center lol.

[Kryten]

https://blogs.nasa.gov/kennedy/2016/10/06/ksc-prepares-to-ride-out-matthew/

[DerekL1963]

It's a few hours old now, but what KSC/CCAFS could face:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/once-again-a-cat-4-storm-potentially-disastrous-matthew-rolls-toward-

FL Space Coast (including Melbourne and the Kennedy Space Center)
This is the most likely area to experience the highest winds from Matthew (see Figure 3 above) with Daytona Beach at high risk. The wind threat is especially serious at Cape Canaveral, which juts out into the Atlantic about 10-15 miles. If Matthew does make landfall along the Florida coast, this would be the most likely spot for it. Billions of dollars of facilities and equipment are at risk at Kennedy Space Center and nearby bases, which have never before experienced a major hurricane. Some of KSC’s older facilities were designed only to withstand Category 2 or 3 winds, while facilities built after Hurricane Andrew (1992) are designed to withstand Category 4 or 5 storms. Storm surge could reach 7 to 11 feet over the barrier islands of Volusia and Brevard counties. Matthew is likely to traverse the Space Coast during the overnight hours Thursday.

[ProtoJeb21]

That monster was originally going to hit where I live, like Hurricane Irene. I really hope GOES-R isn't destroyed, since the Kennedy Space Center facilities may not be able to tolerate Category 4 hurricane winds. New models are showing a Florida landfall tomorrow with winds between 120 and 140 mph. Also keep an eye out on Matthew if you live in the Gulf Coast states.

It looks like Matthew could loop into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could possibly strengthen even more and try to imitate Katrina. Oh Kraken...

Stay safe guys.

[tater]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100618&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=6

This latest forecast has the eye passing just off the coast, and given the weaker west side of this thing (generally true, but more true on Michael), that's the best possible result for the Cape if it bears out.

[Ten Key]

17 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I really hope GOES-R isn't destroyed, since the Kennedy Space Center facilities may not be able to tolerate Category 4 hurricane winds.

It looks like the building GOES-R is currently stored in is rated for category 4 winds.

Quote

Ironically, this new weather satellite (GOES-R) is now at risk because of the weather.  As of October 5, Hurricane Matthew is on track to hit Florida's Space Coast with some fury.  The GOES-R spacecraft is at Lockheed Martin's Astrotech Space Operations facility in Titusville, near Cape Canaveral and NASA's Kennedy Space Center.  NOAA's John Leslie said in an emailed statement that "the team preparing NOAA's GOES-R spacecraft for launch has taken appropriate safety measures to secure the satellite at its present location....GOES-R is contained in a building that can withstand strong (category 4) hurricane conditions. After the effects of Hurricane Matthew subside, NOAA and NASA will carefully assess the spacecraft and provide an update on its status."

Source

Last I saw they were "tenting" the spacecraft in case the roof leaks, but we'll just have to see. If memory serves it was originally supposed to be launched this October, but the problems with the Atlas V in March pushed things back. If that hadn't happened, GOES-R might be in a much more vulnerable position. 

[Kerbart]

6 hours ago, tater said:

Well, they've had a good run with no hits---the whole country has, really, no majors in what, 10-11 years, and hardly any minor hurricanes, either?

Yeah, Katrina. But that hardly qualified as a minor. Sandy also only did neglible damage.

[showell373]

2 minutes ago, Kerbart said:

Yeah, Katrina. But that hardly qualified as a minor. Sandy also only did neglible damage.

Ike hit here in the Houston area back in 2008 and did alot of damage. 

 

Looks like the sub tropical ridge has pulled further north and is blocking any northerly movement for this storm and the one on its heels over the next few days. If that front over the central plains would move in, it would likely pick this storm up and take it north east rapidly. 

You can clearly see the ridge to the north of the storm blocking any movement up the east coast....

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[tater]

1 hour ago, Kerbart said:

Yeah, Katrina. But that hardly qualified as a minor. Sandy also only did neglible damage.

Sandy wasn't a hurricane when it hit.

Ike was a cat 2 I think (major hurricane is cat 3+).

Katrina was 11 years ago (and a major hurricane).

Edited October 7, 2016 by tater

[Kerbart]

9 minutes ago, tater said:

Sandy wasn't a hurricane when it hit.

Ike was a cat 2 I think (major hurricane is cat 3+).

Katrina was 11 years ago (and a major hurricane).

Yes, the people who lost their homes will absolutely agree with the fact that these were not hurricanes. Not even storms, one can argue. Merely a brisk breeze, no?

[_Augustus_]

Why are they saying it'll loop around instead of coming up the East Coast? I've never heard of a hurricane like that.

[Kerbart]

1 minute ago, _Augustus_ said:

Why are they saying it'll loop around instead of coming up the East Coast? I've never heard of a hurricane like that.

Cold front, coriolis effect. There was one a couple of years ago that struck florida and then made a u-turn and struck havoc in the gulf of mexico. It's not unheard of for that to happen. However it's extremely unlikely to happen in this case.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Kerbart