Blue Origin thread.

[RCgothic]

5 hours ago, Elthy said:

With that change they more or less have to start over with a lot of components, dont they? Well, another 2 year delay wont matter that much if you have friends in congress that will give you money no matter what.

Worse, probably means all new tooling.

This is the problem with building the factory before the rocket.

[sevenperforce]

6 hours ago, RealKerbal3x said:

Jeff Who wants in on the steel action;

 

Whooaaaaaaa

[tater]

Let's see if they are capable of playing the "fast follower" game, otherwise while it shows they can react (which is good), they will react in a gradatim way.

[YNM]

4 hours ago, tater said:

Looks like 304 is ~$1.50/kg and 6061 Al is more like $12.00/kg.

3 hours ago, RCgothic said:

Probably means all new tooling.

This is the problem with building the factory before the rocket.

Honestly even offset with increased weight they might still be getting net benefits. Even assuming that each material have the exact same strength, volume-wise it's 2.75 times cheaper to use steel, and strengths are more related to volume (dimensions ie. thickness) than weight.

Edited May 29, 2021 by YNM

[CatastrophicFailure]

4 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

Whooaaaaaaa

Elon must’ve laughed his S off when he heard this... probably a lot sooner than the rest of us. 

Next earth-shattering BO tweet: BO committing to reusable upper stage.

And then: National Team redesigns HLS lander, now looks like this. 
[pokes @kerbiloid with a stick] 

4 hours ago, tater said:

Let's see if they are capable of playing the "fast follower" game, otherwise while it shows they can react (which is good), they will react in a gradatim way.

Spoiler

 

[YNM]

15 hours ago, CatastrophicFailure said:

Next earth-shattering BO tweet: BO committing to reusable upper stage.

Honestly I think they should... Has to be some feasible way of re-entering something that large intact.

Edited May 30, 2021 by YNM

[Beccab]

1 hour ago, YNM said:

Honestly I think they should... Has to be some feasible way of re-entering something that large intact

I mean, they should get something to orbit first at least... spacex had a very fast development, yet they went grasshopper -> falcon 1 -> falcon 9 -> falcon heavy -> starship. Even taking into account that Elon said that he would have skipped FH if he knew it would have ended up like this, going grasshopper -> starship seems quite excessive

[YNM]

1 hour ago, Beccab said:

spacex had a very fast development, yet they went grasshopper -> falcon 1 -> falcon 9 -> falcon heavy -> starship.

More like Falcon 1 - Falcon 9 Expendable - Falcon 9 Reusable Prototype (grasshopper) - Falcon 9 Reusable in 10 years (2005-2015, 12 years to 2017 if we count to the first actual reuse), and at the same time Raptor, then Starship then SH (we're about 2 years in).

So yeah they should be aiming to get stuff launched first ASAP. Then they can toy around with how to actually nail a landing.

The real question is the general lack of payload for the targeted launch cadence. SpX have to basically make their own payload, so unless Bezos' other ventures have something in plan they'd have a hard time using their rocket to the fullest. Building a space station is a payload-making business sure but they're manned payloads, and it takes a while for that sort of stuff.

But perhaps scale plays a role as well, esp. given how this is a brand new start (New Glenn isn't using anything from New Shepard when it comes to the land-back bits).

Edited May 30, 2021 by YNM

[wumpus]

2 hours ago, YNM said:

The real question is the general lack of payload for the targeted launch cadence. SpX have to basically make their own payload, so unless Bezos' other ventures have something in plan they'd have a hard time using their rocket to the fullest. Building a space station is a payload-making business sure but they're manned payloads, and it takes a while for that sort of stuff.

Good question.  But the big difference is that while Musk has a paper wealth similar to Bezos *now*, he needed the launch cadence to fund his R&D.  That isn't necessarily the case with Bezos, although how happy he is with the cost and speed of old space/military industrial complex  (he hired guys from old space and got and old space process) is an open question.

I'm not sure that Musk would retain his paper wealth (and doing so would outrage investors far more than the monetary hit) if he tried to sell a few billion dollars worth of Tesla stock, so he's probably stuck with largely revenue (and outside investment) financed R&D for now.

[YNM]

41 minutes ago, wumpus said:

While Musk has a paper wealth similar to Bezos *now*, he needed the launch cadence to fund his R&D.

Starlink is an internal customer, you might as well count every launch as a loss/sunk investment. Revenue is from the end users (those who pay 99 USD for them), maybe a few FCC grants but that's about it. Reuse does slash the cost it takes to launch but since the reused form is the final form of the rocket, you might well argue that now it doesn't make as much profit than before.

And as we can see while F9's launch cadence is now much higher than pre-Starlink, the external customer launch is much less frequent than it used to be.

NG is supposed to be a reusable rocket. Development and new production does take up most of the expenditure, but the idea is to somehow spread the cost, right ? That's my concern. Yes I know Bezos have an even deeper pocket but as a business it doesn't look good if you're relying on capital rather than revenue. (I know that's what he did with Amazon, though... just to gain market.)

Edited May 30, 2021 by YNM

[tater]

BO has the Amazon Kuiper sat constellation as an internal customer.

As I have said in some thread or another here (this one?) the total global launch market is effectively chump change. This is not a space (no pun intended) for a lot of players. The launch market is all of ~$20B/yr. That's under 20 days of Amazon revenue.

So anyone arguing that these guys are doing it for the money... LOL.

[YNM]

Just now, tater said:

BO has the Amazon Kuiper sat constellation as an internal customer.

Ah, right. Now it makes sense, at least a bit.

[tater]

Bezos is trying to build launch infrastructure to move dirty industry to space, to make Earth more park-like, and so "millions of people can live and work in space."

The NT legal challenge to HLS selection was partially just SOP, partially I think because Northrop Grumman and LockMart can't do anything without getting paid first (they are public after all)—and for whatever reason Bezos doesn't want to write checks from his own account to theirs.

I have to say that I found the entire "National Team" thing pretty disappointing from BO. I get it, they actually have no experience yet in doing anything in actual space (NS flat out doesn't count), and to try for the contract they needed some gravitas. Regardless, they should build a system themselves. The Jeff writes a check to BO, which presumably he's willing to do, since BO is not about making meaningful amounts of money (meaningful to Bezos) on a timescale of his lifetime.

[wumpus]

57 minutes ago, YNM said:

Starlink is an internal customer, you might as well count every launch as a loss/sunk investment. Revenue is from the end users (those who pay 99 USD for them), maybe a few FCC grants but that's about it. Reuse does slash the cost it takes to launch but since the reused form is the final form of the rocket, you might well argue that now it doesn't make as much profit than before.

And as we can see while F9's launch cadence is now much higher than pre-Starlink, the external customer launch is much less frequent than it used to be.

NG is supposed to be a reusable rocket. Development and new production does take up most of the expenditure, but the idea is to somehow spread the cost, right ? That's my concern. Yes I know Bezos have an even deeper pocket but as a business it doesn't look good if you're relying on capital rather than revenue. (I know that's what he did with Amazon, though... just to gain market.)

Not sure how you can call it a "loss" when Starlink currently has (beta) paying customers.  They'll have to get the reliability far higher if they want the big money tying financial districts together at a slightly lesser ping than undersea fiber.

According to the infallible wiki (although they appear to be quoting NASA), Falcon9 1.0 cost less than $400 million to design (price includes Falcon 1 and Merlin development).  NASA's "traditional contracting procedure" expected to spend $4 billion to do the same, and Bezos hired guys used to doing "NASA's traditional procedure" (although at least $1 billion of that is ULA profits, so that would be paying yourself).  It also cost roughly a billion dollars to develop reuse capability.  Even for Bezos, this hobby is getting expensive, and it isn't clear he is going the right  way.

1 hour ago, tater said:

BO has the Amazon Kuiper sat constellation as an internal customer.

As I have said in some thread or another here (this one?) the total global launch market is effectively chump change. This is not a space (no pun intended) for a lot of players. The launch market is all of ~$20B/yr. That's under 20 days of Amazon revenue.

So anyone arguing that these guys are doing it for the money... LOL.

Right now, ULA is contracted to launch Kuiper.  Expect long lead times and a longer wait before Kuiper can be an internal customer.  It also isn't  clear how being a second internet ISP is going to be a great advantage when he gets around to launching it.  Starlink will compete with existing ISP monopolies, especially in less populated areas (populated as seen by satellite coverage), as an effective monopoly in highly rural areas, and as a slightly  lower latency provider between financial districts (although it isn't clear when Starlink will be able to take this role, nor how much Kuiper can learn and compete quickly).  I can't imagine what the financials look like for that company, although you can say that for Amazon as a whole for the first 20 years of its existence.

Seymour Cray is known for saying "One of the problems of being a pioneer is you always make mistakes and I never, never want to be a pioneer. It's always best to come second when you can look at the mistakes the pioneers made."  While this  gives Bezos quite a few advantages, he doesn't seem to be set up to take advantage of them.

[tater]

9 minutes ago, wumpus said:

Right now, ULA is contracted to launch Kuiper.  Expect long lead times and a longer wait before Kuiper can be an internal customer. 

Yeah, because NG is behind schedule, and BO is behind in getting engines to ULA for Vulcan as well.

This buy was partially throwing ULA a bone because of Be-4 delays, IMO. Odd since the launch must certainly be more expensive than using F9. Dunno how you tell the shareholders you wasted money on buying a service because Bezos doesn't like SpaceX.

 

9 minutes ago, wumpus said:

It also isn't  clear how being a second internet ISP is going to be a great advantage when he gets around to launching it.  Starlink will compete with existing ISP monopolies, especially in less populated areas (populated as seen by satellite coverage), as an effective monopoly in highly rural areas, and as a slightly  lower latency provider between financial districts (although it isn't clear when Starlink will be able to take this role, nor how much Kuiper can learn and compete quickly).  I can't imagine what the financials look like for that company, although you can say that for Amazon as a whole for the first 20 years of its existence.

Yeah, dunno how the space internet plays out.

 

9 minutes ago, wumpus said:

Seymour Cray is known for saying "One of the problems of being a pioneer is you always make mistakes and I never, never want to be a pioneer. It's always best to come second when you can look at the mistakes the pioneers made."  While this  gives Bezos quite a few advantages, he doesn't seem to be set up to take advantage of them.

Yeah, it's bizarre how poorly run BO is compared to Amazon.

[RCgothic]

 

 

 

[YNM]

48 minutes ago, wumpus said:

Not sure how you can call it a "loss" when Starlink currently has (beta) paying customers.  They'll have to get the reliability far higher if they want the big money tying financial districts together at a slightly lesser ping than undersea fiber.

Well at least it's a sunk investment. Couldn't really be said as the profit-making part of their scheme. Kind of like a maintenance vehicle.

Edited May 30, 2021 by YNM

[CatastrophicFailure]

49 minutes ago, RCgothic said:

 

 

 

Saw that, too. The retort is that supposedly, the rumor came from NSF L2, from a source who is very reliable.  Grains of salt may be involved. 

[tater]

A shot from inside BO factory:

 

[SOXBLOX]

That's all we get to see? Just an oddly-proportioned American flag, and the end of a tank of some sort? Great PR game, Bezos. Absolutely delightful.

[tater]

5 minutes ago, SOXBLOX said:

That's all we get to see? Just an oddly-proportioned American flag, and the end of a tank of some sort? Great PR game, Bezos. Absolutely delightful.

It was their Memorial Day tweet, which was fine, but it does have a NG segment in it.

[Codraroll]

Can we take a moment to appreciate how the rocket segment is resting on stacked pallets? This being rocket engineering, one would think there would be something like a specially designed Rocket Segment Supporting Apparatus, which is worth more than the building it's located in.

Of course, we don't know the specs of those pallets ...

Edited May 31, 2021 by Codraroll

[tater]

10 minutes ago, Codraroll said:

Can we take a moment to appreciate how the rocket segment is resting on stacked pallets? This being rocket engineering, one would think there would be something like a specially designed Rocket Segment Supporting Apparatus, which is worth more than the building it's located in.

Of course, we don't know the specs of those pallets ...

And there I was staring at the shiny ring segments.

That's an interesting observation. You'd think if the jig moves out for actual work they would have a dedicated support structure.

It's more the contrast with the immaculate facility, actually.

 

If we had a webcam inside there at 2am it's dark. At some point after 5pm, the place has activity! Janitors scrubbing the place with toothbrushes to a mirror shine.

That's how you keep it clean, vs someplace with workers there 24/7 building rockets (which is pretty messy).

 

[SOXBLOX]

58 minutes ago, tater said:

It was their Memorial Day tweet, which was fine, but it does have a NG segment in it.

Oops. Well, nevermind. But I still think the flag proportions are off...

And those pallets are pretty funny. Good catch, @Codraroll.

[tater]

4 minutes ago, SOXBLOX said:

Oops. Well, nevermind. But I still think the flag proportions are off...

Looks maybe a half a stripe short, and the Union is too small left to right.

The short aspect could be it not hanging or curling a little if it's light weight material.