Hurricane Irma

[DerekL1963]

18 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

There is a big Naval Air Station right in the project path through the keys. Do they fly all the planes away to somewhere else, or do they stash them in hangers and hope the hangers survive? I would think that with mobile assets like planes, they would just move them.

I don't know much about the aviation side of things, I was a bubblehead.  But if I have to guess, I'd say they probably fly them out under the same theory that sends ships to sea - the storm can't damage what's not there.

Yup, my guess was correct: http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/05/politics/key-west-navy-evacuation-hurricane-irma/index.html

[mikegarrison]

Do submerged submarines feel really big storms?

[Just Jim]

5 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

Do submerged submarines feel really big storms?

Hmmm... interesting question... and if so, how far down can they feel it?

[adsii1970]

I can answer that... Below 35 meters, its smooth. The lower your dive, the smoother it is. But that's all I can say... And I can't tell you how I know.

[DerekL1963]

21 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

Do submerged submarines feel really big storms?

 Depends on how deep they're submerged and the size of the storm (and the size of the boat).  I've felt 'em (very light but noticeable motion) down to a hundred feet or so.  (640 class SSBN.)  We had to be shallow-ish under a North Atlantic winter storm once - not at all fun.  We were very glad when we could get down to our normal depths.

[Ten Key]

My Dad has a story about being chased by a typhoon that seemed hell bent on following them no matter what they did. They had to submerge to get away from it, and supposedly the ride is pretty smooth once you're away from the surface, but unfortunately my Dad's boat was a diesel-electric. Trying to use the snorkel was. . .unpleasant. Maybe impossible. . .the story was a little vague on that. 

[DerekL1963]

3 minutes ago, Ten Key said:

My Dad has a story about being chased by a typhoon that seemed hell bent on following them no matter what they did. They had to submerge to get away from it, and supposedly the ride is pretty smooth once you're away from the surface, but unfortunately my Dad's boat was a diesel-electric. Trying to use the snorkel was. . .unpleasant. Maybe impossible. . .the story was a little vague on that. 

Oh, a B-girl in a storm.  That must have been fun.   They are not large boats.

[mikegarrison]

So we got two answers that were roughly the same -- subs do feel storms down to about (35 m / 100 ft). Thanks.

[Green Baron]

6 hours ago, Just Jim said:

Waldo, the tropical storm survivor. 

Cute cat :-)

Irma seems to have received an upgrade again and might arrive at your front door as major hurricane again. If only i knew the future ...

Poor Cubans.

[Just Jim]

3 hours ago, Green Baron said:

Cute cat :-)

Irma seems to have received an upgrade again and might arrive at your front door as major hurricane again. If only i knew the future ...

Poor Cubans.

Yup, this morning they've got it coming right over our heads... but the way the models keep changing, I wouldn't be too surprised if this afternoons was different again. We're not going to know for sure until tomorrow when it actually turns.

 

[DerekL1963]

I feel for the folks on the Gulf coast, but it (currently) looks like KSC/CCAFS (the theoretical subject of this thread) is going to dodge a bullet.

[mikegarrison]

18 minutes ago, DerekL1963 said:

I feel for the folks on the Gulf coast, but it (currently) looks like KSC/CCAFS (the theoretical subject of this thread) is going to dodge a bullet.

The storm is so big they are still going to get hit pretty hard, but not hurricane-level hard. (If the models are right.)

[DerekL1963]

42 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

The storm is so big they are still going to get hit pretty hard, but not hurricane-level hard. (If the models are right.)

Tropical depression hard is way better than hurricane hard any day of the week.  But yeah, she hasn't turned yet and we're still in something of an "[almost] anything can happen" phase.

[Just Jim]

Right now we're in that calm before the storm phase, and it's beautiful outside. But spooky. We've got everything moved and under cover, except my orchids. There's no wind yet, so those can wait until the last minute to come inside because of them needing the sunlight. And they'll only take a few minutes to move.

We're just waiting now to see when and how it turns... and pardon my language, but this waiting part SUCKS!!! 

Edited September 9, 2017 by Just Jim

[tater]

At this point hitting the sw coast sooner would be better, as it might weaken it, instead of staying over water longer.

[Just Jim]

14 minutes ago, tater said:

At this point hitting the sw coast sooner would be better, as it might weaken it, instead of staying over water longer.

Yes... the faster it gets back over land, the less time it has to recharge.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Just Jim

[Ten Key]

I'd also rather it not stay out over the water and then hook into Tampa Bay. The shape of the bay and the direction of the water could amplify the storm surge significantly.

My parents and my brother live in the Riverview area, and my in-laws live across the bay in St Pete. It's going to be a rough weekend. Stay safe all, and good luck. 

[Nibb31]

There are several Key West webcams on the same page here:

https://zeryl.github.io/irma.html

I can't get over the fact that there are still people walking around in the first cam, walking their dogs, taking selfies, some of them with kids. The authorities are considering that the Keys are "not survivable". They are expecting storm surges about 10 meters when the average height in the keys is 2 meters. I've heard reports that they are even asking people who refuse to leave to write their names on their arms with a permanent marker so that their bodies can be ID'd. Harsh, but it should be a criminal offense, not only to put yourself in danger (and expose emergency teams when they inevitably have to come and rescue you) and, but also to expose your kids to deadly danger.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Nibb31

[DerekL1963]

Speaking of evacuations...  Saw some coverage from Miami Beach last night.  No normal traffic, but you couldn't have parked if you'd wanted to.   The streets and parking lots were lined with satellite uplink trucks.

[TheSaint]

17 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

Do submerged submarines feel really big storms?

We got underway to avoid Hurricane Bob back in 1991. It was amusing. The Group told all of the submarines in port to be ready to get underway if the hurricane turned towards New England. So we all had a sea bag packed. In the middle of the night at the barracks, we get a knock on the door. My roommate answers it, "Hey, squadron called it, we're getting underway at 2:00AM" "Okay. What time is it?" "2:00AM" We all pulled our boots on, grabbed our sea bags and went running like Hell down the hill to the boat. Turned out, we were the only boat on the river that managed to get enough crew on board to get underway before they closed the channel. We got a nice feather in our cap for that. Everyone else was **** upon mightily.

Underway was an adventure. 70-80 foot swells on the surface. The boat was only 33 feet in diameter. You couldn't feel the sea state when you were down deep, so you just stay down deep, right? Except that, during peacetime, U.S. submarines are required to come to periscope depth periodically and run the masts up for check-in and comms traffic. After the first time, they didn't even bother trying to maintain periscope depth, because with the way the swells were going the depth was ranging anywhere from 100 ft to broached in a matter of seconds. We just ran up, broached, did the comms, ran back down again. I remember sitting in maneuvering and watching the shaft turns meter while we were trying to do one of these evolutions. It sitting there nice and steady at 15 RPM, and then suddenly it's flying up to crazy RPMs, and then it suddenly settles back down to 15 RPM, and then it's going crazy again. It was the screw coming out of the water as the swells passed over it. Nutty.

And, we were stuck out there for five days. (On port-and-starboard watches, no less. Six hours on watch, six hours off. We didn't get all the crew on board, just enough to get underway.) When the hurricane hit the sub base, it took out all the communications. So even after the storm was over, we were sending all these messages in via satellite, "Hey, can we come back in?" and they weren't getting through. And they were so busy cleaning up they had literally forgotten that we had gotten underway. Finally, one of the wives of the guys on the boat called the squadron headquarters and asked, "Excuse me, where the Hell is my husband?"

 

[Just Jim]

OK, right now things here are somewhat quiet, but the wind is starting to pick up. Everyone I know is jumpy and nervous. The rain is mostly south and east, but the first bands should be getting here sometime this evening from the looks of the radar.

Also, I had to go to my best friends a little while ago, and the streets are almost empty, except US19.

I just brought in my orchids... nothing left we can do but wait.

It's spooky.... 

[Scotius]

Hang in there There are plenty of people wishing you guys good luck now.

[DerekL1963]

2 hours ago, TheSaint said:

Underway was an adventure. 70-80 foot swells on the surface. The boat was only 33 feet in diameter. You couldn't feel the sea state when you were down deep, so you just stay down deep, right? Except that, during peacetime, U.S. submarines are required to come to periscope depth periodically and run the masts up for check-in and comms traffic. After the first time, they didn't even bother trying to maintain periscope depth, because with the way the swells were going the depth was ranging anywhere from 100 ft to broached in a matter of seconds. We just ran up, broached, did the comms, ran back down again. I remember sitting in maneuvering and watching the shaft turns meter while we were trying to do one of these evolutions. It sitting there nice and steady at 15 RPM, and then suddenly it's flying up to crazy RPMs, and then it suddenly settles back down to 15 RPM, and then it's going crazy again. It was the screw coming out of the water as the swells passed over it. Nutty.

We had to be surfaced somewhere, for reasons, for two days during a North Atlantic winter gale.  Our bridge was almost thirty feet off the waterline, and we were taking green water over it...  so we abandoned the bridge.  The 'scopes were considerably higher and even they were occasionally taking green water over them.   Nasty, nasty stuff.  Sub sailors are notoriously prone to seasickness, both because the boats roll like pigs and because we spend so little time on the surface to get used to it.  We had so many guys sick we were making up the watchbill as we went along.  Ended up standing MCCSUP for over eighteen hours at one point because the only other qualified SUP that could get out of his bunk was needed to plug holes in the COW and DOW watch rotation.

My lame-[curseword]head of a weapons officer heard I was eating on watch (no choice because there was nobody to relieve me for meals) and all but literally crawled into MCC to chew me out.  (Stopping to dry heave every other sentence or so.)  I pretended to pay attention and he eventually went away.

Finally the morons at SUBLANT gave up on trying to make the reasons work and released us.  We dove and hauled tail outta there and spent the next three days deep while everybody rested and recovered.

@Just Jim, you be safe.  We're thinking of you.  (Which is about all we can do.)

 

[Just Jim]

OK, this was a little amusing, and more or less on-topic, weird as it might first seem... We just got a huge bag of Starbucks pastries given to us... free!!! All sorts of goodies.

What happened is my daughters friend works there, and because they're shutting down for the next few days for the storm, they sent the employees home with all the perishable food! And she just brought us some of it. Free storm food... and Starbucks no less... cool!

 

Edited September 9, 2017 by Just Jim

[tater]

I hope that you get to enjoy them in relative peace and quiet.