[space] Is Mars-one a scam?

[Kelmoir]

Honestly, even though 10 years might be a tight time scedule, I think that they deserved a fair chance.

Guess how much media attention curiosity drew, and Mars one will start the draw media attention, when they go to the selection round 4.

Which is on TV. And that alone should deliver quite some money, if you compare that to all those casting shows.

Finally, I guess, that this is totally worth a decent try.

Because of that and I would like to be part in that (and I thought about the one way trip thingy to an deadly planet), I did sign up. And even if it turns out to be some scam, I don't mind the registration fee (that thought I had, before paying the fee).

If no one ever steps forward, nothing will be accomplished. NASA has barely enough money to keep their robotic exploration going, let alone the development of that Orion capsule.

I'm not that well informed, how well ESA does, but it is kinda silent around them, for whatever reason.

[lajoswinkler]

A fair chance to kill a bunch of loons strapped inside cans? I don't think so. The law is going to stop it... unless they go to North Korea, where they'd be happy to launch people in terribly unsafe conditions.

[Javster]

Honestly, even though 10 years might be a tight time scedule, I think that they deserved a fair chance.

Guess how much media attention curiosity drew, and Mars one will start the draw media attention, when they go to the selection round 4.

Which is on TV. And that alone should deliver quite some money, if you compare that to all those casting shows.

Finally, I guess, that this is totally worth a decent try.

Because of that and I would like to be part in that (and I thought about the one way trip thingy to an deadly planet), I did sign up. And even if it turns out to be some scam, I don't mind the registration fee (that thought I had, before paying the fee).

If no one ever steps forward, nothing will be accomplished. NASA has barely enough money to keep their robotic exploration going, let alone the development of that Orion capsule.

I'm not that well informed, how well ESA does, but it is kinda silent around them, for whatever reason.

ESA do satellites mainly.

[th3shameless]

The law is going to stop it... unless they go to North Korea, where they'd be happy to launch people in terribly unsafe conditions.

whoa whoa now simmer down man no need to insult my country

[lajoswinkler]

Yeah, very funny.

[ReptilianGameplays]

I don't believe that it's a hoax but actually I think it's most likely to end in tragedy.

Colonize a planet farther and colder than Earth when there's the Moon, that's closer and (I guess) not that cold.

And if something went wrong, they could bring 'em back faster than if they were on Mars.

[SargeRho]

Mars is far warmer and stable, climate-wise, than the Moon. On the moon, you go from +170 or so to -180 between day and night. Spirit detected 35°C in the Shade in summer. That's an average summer day here in Spain. The lowest temperature recorded on Mars is -140°C. Plus it has an atmosphere of CO2, Argon and Nitrogen. You can separate those, and produce air that Plants will thrive in within greenhouses.

[Anton P. Nym]

Spirit detected 35°C in the Shade in summer. That's an average summer day here in Spain.

I strongly suspect you omitted a minus sign in Spririt's reading; there's no chance at all that Mars can get to 35°C with that thin an atmosphere at its distance from the Sun, but -35°C I could see happening.

-- Steve

[Faark]

Btw, another argument for going to mars: If we ever build a space elevator, we will do it on mars first, since it only requires about an 1/3 cable length of an earth counterpart. Just saying^^

No, that does not make it any more likely that mars one will succeed, ofc.

[Kryten]

I strongly suspect you omitted a minus sign in Spririt's reading; there's no chance at all that Mars can get to 35°C with that thin an atmosphere at its distance from the Sun, but -35°C I could see happening.

No he didn't. With the amount of IR radiation the earth's atmosphere absorbs before hitting the surface, I can see that happening pretty easily.

[Moar Boosters]

I think I might try and do my own mars one mission when career mode comes out in KSP.

Rush the bare minimum level of research needed to get there, and then see what happens.

Probably won't be pretty.

[Seret]

To properly simulate it you'll need to wait until life support resources are implemented. Send a bunch of Kerbals to Duna, then run resupply missions with decreasing regularity as the cash dries up. Watch and laugh as your Kerbals die off from starvation and disease. Hohoho!

[Monkeh]

Despite all the comments in this thread, I think everyone here would watch the TV show. Wouldn't you? I know I would, even if it's just to see some low gravity sex! Apparently it's awesome.

Also, sorry but:

...we went to the Moon 30 years ago.

2013 - 1969 = ?

[Nibb31]

Despite all the comments in this thread, I think everyone here would watch the TV show. Wouldn't you? I know I would, even if it's just to see some low gravity sex! Apparently it's awesome.

How would you know?

As for the TV show, sure us space geeks would watch it (if it isn't too crappy), but that doesn't mean that they would get the level of popular audience that they need. In an interview, one of the Mars One folks stated that they were basing their revenue plan on the worldwide ratings of the Olympic Games. Good luck in sustaining that every week for several years all over the world!

Besides, the sort of people that would be selected to make interesting reality TV are not the ones who would make good astronauts. comes to mind... and look at the ratings that had.

2013 - 1969 = ?

Good for you, necroing a typo that happened on page 8 of 28 page thread.

[Monkeh]

Good for you, necroing a typo that happened on page 8 of 28 page thread.

I did apologise! At least I read the thread as well, always winds me up when people start their post with, 'Haven't bothered reading all of this but....'

I don't know about low/zero g sex, I said 'apparently' as I've heard of interviews where Astronauts have mentioned it before now and also, I have a pretty good imagination, it'd obviously be awesome...just think of the possibilities!

I think if Big Brother programs from all over the world got as many viewers as it did/is still doing, the prospect of watching people in actual life threatening situations and with the possibility of actual psychological deterioration will appeal hugely to Joe Public I feel.

Who wouldn't want to see a real life 'Jack Nicholson in the shining' happening before their very eyes? Oh yeah, most normal people. Shame there's very few of them around.

No need to be angry that you couldn't do a simple subtraction, sorry, again, for pointing it out.

[Nibb31]

I don't know about low/zero g sex, I said 'apparently' as I've heard of interviews where Astronauts have mentioned it before now and also, I have a pretty good imagination, it'd obviously be awesome...just think of the possibilities!

There is no "official" experimental knowledge on the subject, AFAIK, simply due to the lack of intimity when you're in space. Although several astronauts and medical experts have stated that it would be highly impractical, because of good old Newton "To every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction". Any erm... movement would send you bouncing around the bedroom instead of into... erm... well you get it. They would need to be strapped to each other in some way or to wear some sort of special suit to hold the two people together.

Anyway.

I think if Big Brother programs from all over the world got as many viewers as it did/is still doing, the prospect of watching people in actual life threatening situations and with the possibility of actual psychological deterioration will appeal hugely to Joe Public I feel.

Although Big Brother can be seen all over the world, it is taylor-made for each country. Denmark's Big Brother is different from India's or Argentina's or Iran's Big Brother. What one country might find funny and entertaining can be inappropriate, off-putting, or even illegal in other countries. It's actually quite hard for a TV program to appeal to a global audience.

The actual journey, if well-planned and where everyone is level-headed, well-trained and professional, would look like watching the live video feed from the ISS. Although you and I might find it captivating, I can assure you that you are not going to get stellar ratings on global TV channels from it. Sure, you could introduce artificial risk factors and psychological torture to make the shows interesting, but that could actually put the mission at risk and end up getting everyone killed. That would be great for ratings, but disastrous for the public support of any future manned Mars projects.

Did you watch Defying Gravity a couple of years ago? It was a rather disastrous show depicting a mission to Mars. The sci-fi background was rather believable, but the fictitious space agency seemed to have selected the astronauts based on their drama potential and mental issues rather than their ability to accomplish the mission. It ended up being poised as "Grey's Anatomy in Space" and was eventually cancelled due to bad ratings. I can't actually think of a single TV program (other than the Olympic Games maybe, which only lasts 2 weeks every 4 years), that has high ratings all over the world.

But actually I can see Mars One turning into a reality TV hoax show, like an elaborate version of Space Cadets.

In order for the hoax to stand a realistic chance of succeeding, the Cadets would have to remain unaware of the true nature of the show, even given any production mistakes and implausible explanations.

As such, a strict set of criteria were applied to filter out inappropriate applicants:

- Eliminating anyone who had ever served in the armed forces, or who already had a significant interest in space travel or science fiction.

- Psychological tests used to single out the highly suggestible and those who would conform to groupthink

- Physiological tests to determine claustrophobia, including being in restraining jackets and trapped in a full lift

- Being asked to dance blindfolded, without music, and with others watching, to gauge inhibition levels

- Asking the candidates to nominate a friend or relative they trusted implicitly, to make a vital and important decision for them. These friends or relatives were contacted, and fully let in on the hoax, and given the final say of whether or not the Cadet should be included

The intention was to obtain a group of Cadets who were highly gullible, conformist, and ignorant about the show's subject matter; and also ideally suited to appearing in a Reality TV show (e.g. uninhibited extroverts, "wacky personalities", or characters otherwise able to capture the public's attention).

I guess we'll know if it's a hoax when we learn more about the selected candidates ;-)

Edited September 17, 2013 by Nibb31

[NASAFanboy]

Mars One, if it EVER succeeds will more likely be delayed over and over, and land around the 2050's....

[Nibb31]

Mars One, if it EVER succeeds will more likely be delayed over and over, and land around the 2050's....

Do you sincerely think a TV program could survive that long without having anything to show ? Or that a commercial company could survive that long without funding ?

The whole point of the project is that they need to raise a lot of money in order to have something to show on TV, but they need to show stuff on TV in order to raise money. Now it might be possible to get investors to advance hundreds of thousands of dollars if you can prove that you will succeed and that you have something to show them, but it's much harder when you have only Powerpoint slides AND you need hundreds of millions of dollars.

MarsOne. Simply. Isn't. Happening.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Nibb31

[NASAFanboy]

Do you sincerely think a TV program could survive that long without having anything to show ? Or that a commercial company could survive that long without funding ?

The whole point of the project is that they need to raise a lot of money in order to have something to show on TV, but they need to show stuff on TV in order to raise money. Now it might be possible to get investors to advance hundreds of thousands of dollars if you can prove that you will succeed and that you have something to show them, but it's much harder when you have only Powerpoint slides AND you need hundreds of millions of dollars.

MarsOne. Simply. Isn't. Happening.

I think I accidentally left out the part saying that will happen ONLY if NASA/ESA spends a sustantial amount of money on it, and even then, success is not going to be guaranteed. (And I'm being optimistic by saying that)

Mars One is a nice pipe dream, and certainly has some nice videos and powerpoints, but its not going to happen.

The first humans on Mars will not be civilian colonists, but government-funded astronauts landing on multi-billion dollar government spacecraft.

The first base on Mars will likely happen in the 2050's, and it will use trained and elite astronauts.

Mars One is a good idea, but its far too ahead of its time.

Maybe had it popped up much later, during the 2050's, might we have taken it seriously

[hugix]

That sort of funding (donations and merch) can a game or small business going, but not a completely new venture into completely unknown territories. It would be slightly more realistic (read: less insane) if it was a space travel holiday plan of some kind. Suborbital flight into space for a few minutes. But MARS?? REALLY??

You are thinking way to big, bands and artists also make money by merchandising their albums and T-shirts and what not on a larger scale than Mars-one does. and all though there is lots of money in something like Lady Gaga or Metallica. Still it won't be able to fund such a project as a suborbital flight design. Hell Even Richard Branson has troubles pulling it of.

[Seret]

Mars One folks stated that they were basing their revenue plan on the worldwide ratings of the Olympic Games. Good luck in sustaining that every week for several years all over the world!

Not just years, decades. They're talking about a permanent colony. So assuming you send a bunch of fit, healthy, telegenic 20-somethings you're looking at committing to provide support for that colony for another 50-60 years or so.

So basically the whole plan is dependent on them managing to come up with the most successful TV programme in history, and sustaining it for longer than any TV shows has ever been run. The format would be a reality show where a bunch of people sit around inside some Dragon capsules doing not very much. People would get bored of watching that pretty quickly IMO, even if there was the occasional EVA. Once people got used to seeing people walk around in what is essentially a big red carpark interest would nosedive. Only a hardcore geek minority (the kind who religiously follow the activities of the current rovers on Mars) would bother watching, and that's not an audience big enough to fund resupply missions. Even if it was a popular as Big Brother it wouldn't cut it, as audiences for actual Big Brother have dropped off sharply after a few years, and that's with them being able to refresh the format occasionally. Comparing it the interest in the Olympic Games is hopelessly optimistic.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Seret

[hugix]

I got bored after the first 2 episodes of Big brother. And these contestants where chosen because of their entertainment (Read : low Iq) value.

Fun fact. One of the first sponsors of Mars one is Paul Römer, one of the creators of Big brother.

[loknar]

Wait...

do the mars-one volunteers expect to work on Mars until 55 years old and then take a retirement with mars-nurses taking care of them and playing mars-bingo on Tuesdays?

[jwenting]

Not just years, decades. They're talking about a permanent colony. So assuming you send a bunch of fit, healthy, telegenic 20-somethings you're looking at committing to provide support for that colony for another 50-60 years or so.

nah. After a few months at most the TV audience stops watching, the show gets cancelled, and the colony abandoned to die, easy to do if you ensure their radio equipment is battery powered and you never send replacement batteries...

Sounds cold, but that's the way to do it. And the gullible fools who signed up for it, nobody going to miss them.

[dharak1]

We had a discussion about this today in math. My teacher brought something up about money or spacecraft water recycling systems and we got to Mars One. He kept saying how they were going to fund it and such. I waited for a while with my hand up when he got to me I explained the challenges of merely getting to orbit. Then how your cancer risk increases every year. After I was done I said it would have been better to give attention to the 2030-something manned Phobos landing that was in planning by some NATIONAL space agency a few years back. Then he want up to the board and wrote dreamers and under it IMAGINATION! Then he explained how if everyone was a skeptic like me we wouldn't go to the Moon. Then I said how it is literally financially impossible to accumulate enough viewers by 2021 to fund a Mars mission. I think they think rockets are cheap.