Asteroid 'threatening' Earth

[kiwi1960]

Asteroid 'threatening' Earth

SERGEI LOIKO

Ukrainian astronomers say an asteroid might collide with Earth in a couple of decades, a Russian news service says.

Space watchers from the observatory in the Crimean peninsula said they discovered an asteroid about 400m in diameter, which they called 2013 TV135, that was approaching Earth at a potentially dangerous trajectory, RIA Novosti said.

The astronomers calculated the date of a potential collision as August 26, 2032, the news service said, but they acknowledged that the odds of an impact were one in 63,000.

The force of such a possible collision could be the equivalent of setting off about 2.5 megatons of TNT, RIA Novosti reported.

The discovery, which was made Saturday, was confirmed by two Russian observatories and by Italian, British and Spanish astronomers, RIA Novosti reported.

"A 400-metre asteroid is threatening to blow up the Earth," Russian Vice Premier Dmitry Rogozin, in charge of his nation's space research, wrote Wednesday on his Twitter account.

"Here is a super target for the national cosmonautics."

Meanwhile, divers working Wednesday in Chebarkul Lake in Russia's Ural Mountains raised what they believed was a large piece of the meteor that exploded over the region in February.

That strike from space caused some damage and injuries to hundreds of people, mainly from shattered window glass.

- MCT

=======================================================

Lets see, we need 6 brave Kerbals with no stupidity, some drilling equipment, a few nukes...

and a lot of luck....

do they have the right stuff? Who care, if we say they go, then they go, their say in it, ZIP!

Prepare the launchpad...

-----

Actually, this one probably will hit, stats are against us, we are overdue for a BIG hit... this could be it.

I'll probably be dead by then

OH, BTW.... its Threatening us is it? Can we lay charges against it with the Police???

[PakledHostage]

The force of such a possible collision could be the equivalent of setting off about 2.5 megatons of TNT, RIA Novosti reported.

According to the NASA Near Earth Object Office, the newly discovered asteroid 2013 TV135 would impact with an energy of 2400 megatons, not 2.5 megatons.

Fortunately, it is only a 1 on the Torino Scale. That translates to:

A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

[Bacterius]

How is this new? I heard claims about a civilization-ending asteroid hitting Earth in the early 2030's years ago. It was 2033, then 2031, then they stopped talking about it. Is it a different asteroid?

Edited October 17, 2013 by Bacterius

[-Velocity-]

How is this new? I heard claims about a civilization-ending asteroid hitting Earth in the early 2030's years ago. It was 2033, then 2031, then they stopped talking about it. Is it a different asteroid?

Yes.

asdfaslnflkasnfdlkasndflnamsd characters.

[PakledHostage]

How is this new? I heard claims about a civilization-ending asteroid hitting Earth in the early 2030's years ago. It was 2033, then 2031, then they stopped talking about it. Is it a different asteroid?

You are probably thinking of Apophis, which makes a couple of near passes around about the 2030s. It was once rated a 4 on the Torino scale, but has since been lowered.

[deadshot462]

Hopefully this scares Congress into putting more funding to NASA.

[firerider521]

Great idea, deadshot!

[lajoswinkler]

Additional observations will show it's nothing to worry about, I'm sure. You can't give such stupid predictions with initial poor data. It's not responsible.

[NASAFanboy]

I swear, once I become POTUS, I will trick the entire United States into thinking that intelligent FTL aliens exist and we need to catch up, and by the way, they have oil fields on the moon and give ray guns to terriost groups, and are building WMDs in secret stations in earth without permission from the UN.

But still, it would be really, really good if it was discovered a massive rock would hit us in 2059 and we had to get as many people off the mud as possible, only for it to miss us entirely in 2049.

[jwenting]

There's always something "threatening earth" proclaimed by someone wanting more subsidies for their "observation effort".

Of course there's rocks out there that might hit us, but as there's nothing we can do about it there's no need to spend money on things that won't work anyway.

Spend it instead of developing efforts to colonise other planets, build a true space faring society, spread out so no single event (short of the sun going nova) can kill us off.

[kiwi1960]

The sun going nova...

NOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooo...

We better start investing in a way to prevent this, quick, we only have a billion years left... why wont anyone think of the children...

[K^2]

According to the NASA Near Earth Object Office, the newly discovered asteroid 2013 TV135 would impact with an energy of 2400 megatons, not 2.5 megatons.

Yeah, I'm getting 250MT - 2,500MT depending on the trajectory. The 2.5MT looked way off right away. 2,400MT I can buy.

This is probably a translation issue, by the way. In Russian, instead of the word "Billion", "Milliard" is used for 10^9. Which can easily have resulted in "2.5 milliard tons of TNT" becoming "2.5 million tons of TNT" when the report first got translated.

[Drunkrobot]

There's always something "threatening earth" proclaimed by someone wanting more subsidies for their "observation effort".

Of course there's rocks out there that might hit us, but as there's nothing we can do about it there's no need to spend money on things that won't work anyway.

Spend it instead of developing efforts to colonise other planets, build a true space faring society, spread out so no single event (short of the sun going nova) can kill us off.

1. Not everyone is actively trying to con everyone else into giving them money. Have you considered that they might be calling for other observatories to "cross-check" their predictions?

2. Are you saying that of all asteroid diversion plans that have been proposed by the entire human race, every single one of them will "not work", even if they were given decades of development and no shortage of funding?

3. I completey agree with spreading to other worlds, and in this case, it would mean the survival of the human race, but this would do nothing about the asteroid, and a large rock hitting the Earth is never ideal. A colony in space, housing millions of people, is not as easy as the more graceful solution (i.e. getting rid of the problem.).

[Kinglet]

We need to put ion engines on that thing. For humanity and SCIENCE and MINING and ASTEROIOD SPACE TRUCKING

[mdatspace]

It is only 270 meters in diameter. Not too bad.

[K^2]

It is only 270 meters in diameter. Not too bad.

400m is the value that shows up everywhere. And sure, it's not too bad, on the planetary scale. We get these every 100,000 years or so. But this will be quite devastating. Impact event will register between 6 and 7 on Richter Scale and leave the crater about 5km in diameter, while the air burst will topple trees and destroy structures in a radius of about 75km. That's just direct damage. If it splashes down, which is probably the best possible outcome, it would generate the worst tsunami in the recorded history, and that alone would be responsible for a death toll that would easily get into hundreds of thousands. I don't think I need to explain what happens if it lands in a populated area.

And then we go into the long term effects. This is nowhere near an extinction type event, but this will lift enormous amounts of debris into the atmosphere. The 1883 explosion of Krakatoa, which gave us the "year without summer", and resulted in year-round average temperature to drop by more than a degree, was less than a 10th of power that you would get from 2013 TV135 impact. This will negatively impact agriculture world-wide, potentially resulting in increased mortality rates in the third world.

[jwenting]

1. Not everyone is actively trying to con everyone else into giving them money. Have you considered that they might be calling for other observatories to "cross-check" their predictions?

2. Are you saying that of all asteroid diversion plans that have been proposed by the entire human race, every single one of them will "not work", even if they were given decades of development and no shortage of funding?

3. I completey agree with spreading to other worlds, and in this case, it would mean the survival of the human race, but this would do nothing about the asteroid, and a large rock hitting the Earth is never ideal. A colony in space, housing millions of people, is not as easy as the more graceful solution (i.e. getting rid of the problem.).

1) those that go public in "big press" do so to get public pressure placed on governments to give them more money

2) yes, nothing that's ever been proposed is workable. Maybe some things can be made to work with several decades lead time to develop the science and technology, then more lead time to launch the actual mission, and unlimited funding during all that. But that's never going to happen. It won't yield a result that can be sold for votes before the next elections, so it doesn't get funded, it's that simple.

3) as we can't wish away the rocks, we'd best look at other options. MAYBE if we get those orbital settlements going, and go work on asteroid mining, we'll find ways to capture and move those things as well as a side effect of that. Or find a way to dismantle such a rock quickly enough in situ that it won't ever get close enough to earth except as a small cloud of gravel left over from the mining operations.

[-Velocity-]

There's always something "threatening earth" proclaimed by someone wanting more subsidies for their "observation effort".

Of course there's rocks out there that might hit us, but as there's nothing we can do about it there's no need to spend money on things that won't work anyway.

Spend it instead of developing efforts to colonise other planets, build a true space faring society, spread out so no single event (short of the sun going nova) can kill us off.

Wow. Just wow. You really have no idea how few people are really looking for hazardous asteroids, and how little money is spent on the endeavor.

Furthermore, you obviously have no idea that it is not astronomers that are making a big deal out of this, but the media. Because of past public overreaction, astronomers made the Torino scale to help communicate to the public how threatening an object really is. Following the definition of the Torino scale no object has ever been considered by astronomers threatening enough to merit special attention by the public. Yes, that's right, NO OBJECT, EVER has been considered by astronomers threatening enough to start warning the public. Even Apophis, the object to achieve the highest score on the Torino scale ever, was not threatening enough, as when it achieved its highest score (4), the impact was more than a decade out, which, according to astronomer's definition of level 4 on the Torino scale, means that no special attention by the public is required.

Now, if the asteroid that hit that Russian town last February had been detected before impact, it would have been the first object to require a special warning (it looks like it would have scored an 8 on the Torino scale), but it wasn't detected before it lit up the morning skies.

What happens is astronomers share their data with each other, out in the open (because this is SCIENCE), and the sensationalist media types see the data on newly discovered objects, hyping up unlikely impact scenarios for higher ratings/sales before astronomers get the chance to build a long enough observation arc to pin down the orbit of the object.

Edited October 18, 2013 by |Velocity|

[DaveofDefeat]

Not to mention we are losing our atmosphere, we need to stop it! What will our children breathe??

[-Velocity-]

And here you go, NASA is going out of its way to assure the public that the Earth is not in any serious danger of an impact by this object-

Reality Check

[Drunkrobot]

2) yes, nothing that's ever been proposed is workable. Maybe some things can be made to work with several decades lead time to develop the science and technology, then more lead time to launch the actual mission, and unlimited funding during all that. But that's never going to happen. It won't yield a result that can be sold for votes before the next elections, so it doesn't get funded, it's that simple.

Maybe if this asteroid mission was put under the same restrictions as most space endeavours, then it probably won't work. But the reason most space endeavours don't get that much money or popular support is because the "man in the street" dosen't see the immediate practical benefits. A mission to SAVE THE WORLD FROM A KILLER ASTEROID is an incredibly easy sale. More money than what was put into both Apollo and the Manhattan project would be sunk into it if required, because you can't put a price on the survival of the human species. Experts from around the world, in all fields of science and engineering, would happily volunteer their services, so having a skilled enough workforce is not an issue. Support from the pubic, and government, is not a problem either, because of the obvious implications of a mission failure. Why would any politician not want to support something like this, if not supporting it meant the destruction of the human race?

That pretty much leaves the only possible issues being technological, which is pretty meaningless, since at least some of the people who draw up missions to deflect asteroids know what they're talking about. If you are willing to put forward every serious mission designed, and explain exactly why they would never work, even if it had universal approval, all the money it needs, and the best scientists and engineers the world has to offer, then I will be willing to read it.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Drunkrobot

[mdatspace]

Krakatoa was a volcanic eruption. It would likely land in an ocean. If it lands in a more remote area, it will not do much.

[EvilotionCR2]

I think that NASA or someone will be scared the **** out of their pants and redirect it.

[rpayne88]

2400MT of energy, ehh. So, if there is an equal and opposite reaction for every action, wouldn't sending 2400MT worth on nuclear explosives (48 Csar Bombas) at the ting, we could stop the thing entirely. Now, I know that would create debris, but it would at least minimize the damage it could cause. Also, as we know, we don't need to stop the thing outright. If we know about this thing, 20 years in advance, we may not need even 10MT of nukes up there.

I am not an engineer by any chance. I'm just saying that this dosen't seem that threatening between its low chance of a collision, and what the governments of the world could do to prevent such a collision.

I am also not taking into account the rockets needed to safely launch the warheads, mind you.

Even if it isn't a threat/ can be averted, lie to the public to get funding into space programs (NASA, ESA, ect.)

[PakledHostage]

Also, as we know, we don't need to stop the thing outright. If we know about this thing, 20 years in advance, we may not need even 10MT of nukes up there.

You make a valid point. The more advanced warning we have, the easier it will be to prevent a collision. A nuke detonated in proximity to it may be enough to divert it, in the extremely unlikely event that it turns out to be on a collision course.

If you're interested, we discussed other methods of diverting an asteroid on this forum a few weeks ago. Here's the link: In the current level of technology, what would stop a impact event?

Edited October 19, 2013 by PakledHostage